[the phantom]

Nice stuff, Sleepy.

I'm going to give my take on the different groups.

GROUP A

This group looks fairly strong. Mordor would seem to be the favorite. The Dark Lord is an excellent team leader- the rest of the team (Nine Nazgul and The Mouth of Sauron) follow his every command as if they were all one joint body. Sauron and his Nazgul have a nearly psychic connection, which leads to some of the most outstanding passing the world has ever seen. And in goal, they have "The Mouth"- named for his ability to swallow up about any shot attempt at his goal.

Rohan certainly has athleticism and grit, but they can't really stack up against Mordor.

Moria has a dangerous captain (Durin's Bane), but his supporting cast doesn't give him that much help.

The Old Forest has the lightning fast Tom, who no one has ever caught, but his teammates just stand there rooted in the ground leaving him to do everything himself. Against a weaker team Tom can carry the load, but not against the likes of Mordor.

Chances of Winning Group-
Mordor- 91%
Moria- 6%
Rohan- 2%
Old Forest- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way- Mordor
Might make semis- Moria
Won't advance any further- Rohan, Old Forest

GROUP B

Rivendell is the obvious pick in this group. Elrond leads a team of powerful elves, including Glorfindel, Elladan, Elrohir, and Erestor.

Vinyamar might be able to stay with Rivendell early, but as we all know, it doesn't take members of the Vinyamar team long to lose interest and desert the team to go someplace like Gondolin.

Arnor has the same problem. They tend to start strong, but then sort of fade away.

The Shire, if it is able to survive the early onslaught, is capable of beating both Vinyamar and Arnor, but I don't think the hobbits can keep up with the elven lords of Rivendell.

Chances of Winning Group-
Rivendell- 92%
Shire- 5%
Vinyamar- 2%
Arnor- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way- Rivendell
Might make semis-
Won't advance any further- Shire, Vinyamar, Arnor


GROUP C

In my opinion, The Barrow-Downs will own this group. First, they hold a huge advantage in the realm of strategic thinking. Many of their players have honed this skill by participating in Werewolf games. The Downs also has incredible depth- a roster of several thousand. In addition, many of the Downers will be able to distract opponents with their extreme attractiveness. The Barrow-Downs also can fall back on its fabulous goal keeper, The Barrow-Wight, whose hands are four feet long and four feet wide, and positioned at the end of ten foot arms. It takes some serious work to get something past him. Also, the phantom is nearly always able to win the crowd over to side with the Downs- even if the game is in the other team's stadium.

Valimar and Valmar both have great talent (the Valar), however, their rosters are identical, meaning that the players will have to play twice as many games as everyone else. I can see them being strong for a couple of games, but the teams will really start to go downhill after that. However, if by some miracle either Valmar or Valimar advance out of this group, they will suddenly be very dangerous as they will no longer be pulling double duty.

And Woodhall- do they even deserve discussion? They were only allowed into the tournament out of pity.

Chances of Winning Group-
The Barrow-Downs- 89.5%
Valmar- 5%
Valimar- 5%
Woodhall- 0.5%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way- The Barrow-Downs, Valmar, Valimar
Might make semis-
Won't advance any further- Woodhall

GROUP D

Nargothrond has to be the favorite in this division. Before the rosters were announced, I wasn't sure who to pick, Ephel Brandir or Nargothrond, but now that it has been announced that Turin will play for Nargothrond rather than Ephel Brandir, I have to give the elven realm the advantage.

I know Erebor may seem like a great pick because of Smaug, but Turin, who slew the father of dragons, will defeat Smaug head-to-head every time. Also, Smaug tends to get ejected from a lot of games for his horribly mean behavior.

So, while I believe that the Smaug-led Erebor team will roast Mirkwood and Ephel Brandir more handily than Nargothrond will defeat them, I can't see Erebor defeating Turin and Nargothrond.

Chances of Winning Group-
Nargothrond- 81%
Erebor- 15%
Mirkwood- 2%
Ephel Brandir- 2%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way- Nargothrond
Might make semis- Erebor
Won't advance any further- Mirkwood, Ephel Brandir

GROUP E

Bree is horribly outmatched in this division. Dale isn't much better off. Belegost is better offensively and defensively than both. And then Numenor- they are as far above Belegost as Belegost is above the other two teams.

The Numenorians are stronger than the dwarves of Belegost and wiser too, but it is their huge height advantage that will seal the deal. The players from Numenor will all have an unobstructed view of the field, and they will be able to head-strike any ball in the air without interference. The Numenorians should be able to use their heads to take the ball all the way down the field, where they can then pop the ball over the dwarvish goal keeper, who is unable to guard the upper portion of the goal.

I definitely think Numenor has a clear path to win their group, however, I don't think Numenor has any chance of going all the way to the championship. There are several teams with better talent than them, and they won't stand a chance if matched against either Mordor or Tol-In-Gauroth, who are both likely to advance out of their groups. They don't stand a chance against those two teams because of the Sauron factor. He has the Numenorian's number.

Chances of Winning Group-
Numenor- 86%
Belegost- 8%
Dale- 5%
Bree- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way-
Might make semis- Numenor
Won't advance any further- Belegost, Dale, Bree

GROUP F

Goblin-town is sure to lose all of its day games. This is too great a disadvantage to overcome. You can write them off.

Isengard's orcs don't have this problem, and with Saruman leading them they are certainly formidable. But I think Doriath, led by King Thingol and the fine goal-scoring duo of Mablung and Beleg, is a bit better than Isengard.

But my pick to win this group is Tol-In-Gauroth. Sauron is one of the best players in the tournament, and his strong and agile werewolves have not only excellent physical skills, but also an intimidation factor that simply cannot be overlooked. Tol-In-Gauroth will win their group.

That said, I wouldn't pick Tol-In-Gauroth to advance farther than the semis in the overall tournament- not unless it picks up another star player. Sauron tried his best to convince the phantom to defect, but Phantom chose to stick with his fellow downers.

However, if for some reason team chemistry is destroyed and there is a falling out between the phantom and the managers of the Downs team, expect Phantom to switch over to the Tol-In-Gaurhoth team- a move that might make the Gauroth team the favorite to win the title. But at this point, I can't see that happening.

Chances of Winning Group-
Tol-In-Gauroth- 80%
Doriath- 12%
Isengard- 7%
Goblin-Town- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way-
Might make semis- Tol-In-Gauroth, Doriath
Won't advance any further- Isengard, Goblin-Town

GROUP G

This group is a very very weak group. There are several teams in other groups that will not win their group but would've won this group had they been placed here. In my opinion it is rather unfair that one of these four teams will get a spot in the final eight while other more worthy teams sit out.

Lothlorien has Galadriel, but as people will soon find out she is mostly hype. And even was she as good as she wishes she was, she doesn't have much help.

Crickhollow's team is laughable. Most of their players are overweight and timid.

Alqualonde is a somewhat solid team. They are probably better at most positions than Lothlorien, so I can see them winning that match up. However, if they advance out of this group, don't expect them to go any further, especially if they run into a team with a Noldor or two playing for them.

Fangorn is the only somewhat dangerous team in this group. If they get "roused", they can play an awfully good game, but the problem is I don't imagine they will be able to rouse themselves in time to avoid elimination. And even if they do manage to get charged up and advance out of this group, you know they'll probably just go back to sleep in the next round.

Chances of Winning Group-
Alqualonde- 50%
Lothlorien- 30%
Fangorn- 19%
Crickhollow- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way-
Might make semis-
Won't advance any further- Alqualonde, Lothlorien, Fangorn, Crickhollow

GROUP H

Group H is an extremely competitive group. The Grey Havens isn't particularly good, but the other three teams all have a shot.

Gondolin has an amazing offense. Turgon takes the center, and Glorfindel and Ecthelion take the flanks. Maeglin and Tuor are aggressive mid-fielders and often come all the way up with Turgon to put pressure on the goal.

Gondor also has an aggressive offense. Providing the firepower is Aragorn, Faramir, Boromir, and Imrahil.

In my opinion, Gondolin has the edge over Gondor.

But the favorite would have to be Angband. Morgoth is a clever strategist, and his balrogs and dragons carry out his designs with ruthless efficiency. Their game one loss to Gondor was a fluke. I can't see them getting shut out in any more games.

Chances of Winning Group-
Angband- 71%
Gondolin- 17%
Gondor- 11%
Grey Havens- 1%

If they win their group, they...
Could go all the way- Angband
Might make semis- Gondolin, Gondor
Won't advance any further- Grey Havens