I'm really sorry to be turning into such a thread hog, but well, start posting a lot more, somebody!
post 25
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What would happen if people said as little as possible on DAY ONE and then just voted. We might be able to pick up a few tells or force the wolves out in the open because they think they could pick off somebody. Unfortunately, this would be at least as open to manipulation as any other opening strategy. They would probably just vote for different people they hoped wouldn't get hung (which is potentially what they will do anyway).
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That is quite interesting, but I see a few problems with it. If almost nothing was sad and no hints dropped here or there and at the end of day all the villagers just voted at random, well I think it is possible that no single villager would get more than one vote. And if everyone voted for a completely different villager what would that really tell us? With complete silence on DAY 1, well, I think that could be as bad as too much chatiness. I must say that would be an interesting plan though, but I really can't see it helping the village.
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50: supports LMP leader plan, but on Day 2 or 3. - questions Glirdan.
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Then in his next post he is quick to remove much of his suspicions from lmp and put them on Eonwe. Now I can take this two ways. 1) Glirdan is innocent and has truly changed his mind and sees Eonwe as more of a threat than lmp. 2) He is a wolf and he is changing his mind quickly because he wants to find an innocent to latch on too. Now I am quite inclined to believe number one, mainly because his quick change of opinion draws attention which is not what a wolf would want. But I will also take into account a clever wolf will use such a tactic because the village would not expect it. I will continue to watch him for now.
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79: summary of what others are saying, little actual commentary
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My suspect list:
Wilwa~ For her defense and plea against Bergil’s vote. It seemed as though she was doing all she could to throw off suspicion of herself. Then of course her vote for Bergil.
Wayne~ As the first to cast a vote for Bergil it is possible he tried to get others to follow because several had mentioned Bergil’s vote as strange and his reason too random.
And a distant third Lalaith
Lalaith~ for what could be taken as an attempt to save wolf fellow Wilwa from the noose. Though that is not the best reason which is why she is far down from Wilwa and Wayne.
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Note how this last suspicion seems to clear Lalaith if Wilwa turns out to be innocent, which a werewolf would know while writing this.
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I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.
Now I'd like to address Wayne again. Lalaith and Wilwa both gave reasons as to their votes for Bergil, you have not. Wilwa and Lalaith have been defending/listing suspects, you have not.
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It's dangerous for a werewolf to draw such attention to another werewolf.
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I find all this tar talk interesting. I never would have thought twice about her post if lmp had not brought it to light as far too cool and calculating. So clearly she needs a good deal of watching. And I was very swayed by lmp and Firefoot's analysis of her. But I'm not sure I really want to vote for her. I have suspicions of Wilwa, Lalaith, and Tar all equally now. I'd throw Wayne in there too because of his unhelpful posts as well. So that leaves me with four to vote for. Lalaith seems to have gained suspicion as a Jykle/Hyde of the village. She is also the one who called for the village to talk much. Talking a lot = Confusion and confusion = wolf breeding ground. I think perhaps Lalaith and Wilwa may be wolves working together. Don't ask me why...just a gut feeling. Tomorrow I will take a much harder look at tar and Lalaith, but if Wayne does not provide substance in his posts then I may just go after him out of sheer annoyance.
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Risky for a werewolf to name one out of three werewolves as her main suspects; on the other hand, making it a triumverate actually tends to whitewash the werewolf in the midst with the innocence of the other two, don't you think? I find triumverates a rather dicey way to present; look at ALL the suspects (should take this advice more myself!
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Should I have been one of your dreams Wilwa please, feel free to reveal to the village.
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guilt clearing words, placed where they are, likely spoken by an innocent?
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Though I do believe Wilwa may be the seer even if she's not I highly doubt she is a wolf. I feel prepares if not the seer she is possibly pulling a Fea thing and saying she is when in truth she is the ranger/hunter. I feel though she is innocent now.
If Wilwa is not the seer I still think Wayne may be a wolf. Judging by his response to her claim.
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This is difficult to decipher, or else I'm getting too tired. Doesn't really tell us much.
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Her coming out as seer is a very foolish move if she's a wolf and Wilwa should know that. Doing something like that draws so much attention and then when her "wolf" is lynched and proved innocent everyone knows, the real seer has probably dreamt of her and is going to rat her out and the seer-wolf loses and a good chance comes about that the team will be discovered and they would lose. The wolves don't want that. Wilwa as a wolf and saying she is the seer seems far too stupid a plan for the wolves to try to establish.
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264 she says there's a lot to lose by double lynching
Rather inconclusive, too, darn it. She's not giving much away; neither is she seeming entirely innocent. Gah!