The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

tar-ancalime · 11-12-2005, 09:03 PM

Celuien?

This has been done already, but please bear with me as I bravely go where...so many have gone before...and do it again.

Assuming that wilwa is the Seer (which, interestingly, has NOT been absolutely proved yet--and I was so sure that this DAY would start with some certainty on that point), we have this configuration:

Ranger: Celuien
Seer: Wilwa

Known innocents: Firefoot, Anguirel, Eonwe

I'd like to point out that any of these three may be our Hunter--wilwa is an adept enough Seer to know that outing them as innocent is very helpful to us, while adding that one of them is gifted isn't all that helpful. All three of these players surely know that too, and Wilwa can trust them not to reveal themselves further.

Unknowns, to include two wolves:

me, Glirdan, Kitanna, Lalaith, and lmp

This group may also contain the Hunter; again I think it's best to keep that information close.

Now, IF (very scary possibility) Wilwa is not the Seer, then our pool of potential wolves grows larger, to include Firefoot, Anguirel, and Eonwe.

I was wrong yesterDAY, but I'm going to refuse to learn from my mistakes and make the same prediction once again: Certainly things will become clear quite soon. It seems to me that by the time another DAY dawns we will certainly know Wilwa's identity, and with it the identities of the other three: the wolves won't let an unprotected Seer live.

(Yes, yes, I know, rehash of things we've already said--but bear with me, I am going somewhere with this; I'm just a little late to the party as usual.)

I'm going to confine my speculations to the five that fall under suspicion given Wilwa's identity as Seer, since it seems pretty unlikely to fall out any other way.

I myself am, of course, beyond reproach, and as others have done I in their own posts I will decline to elaborate on my own virtue.

Kitanna

is a puzzle indeed--almost universally respected till quite recently, and now by her very presence in this ever-shrinking group of people without proven identities she invites suspicion. No one (myself included, I fear) has paid her much attention at all, and I'm beginning to wonder why. She's the only one of the five of us who hasn't been the subject of suspicion--at this stage in the game, isn't that in itself suspicious? Have we been remiss? If she's a wolf I'd suggest a Kitanna/lmp pairing, by the way--he making a lot of noise, she sitting back and staying unnoticed; it's the classic pairing.

Lalaith

I want to hear some more from Wilwa on Lalaith. Such a strong attack on her the other day--as the Seer you'd have to have known that if you died we'd go back and take that as a dream. What were you trying to tell us? Why were you so sure? Also, Lalaith was very much against the double-lynch plan yesterDAY. Even so, she said was willing to go along with it if everyone else agreed--could she have been hedging her bets till the last moment, not willing to cut both of her comrades loose at once? If Glirdan is a wolf then I think we need to look very hard at Lalaith.

lmp

And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad.

Glirdan

has been engendering a lot of discussion lately. Several DAYS ago I spoke up in his defense, but as the list of suspects grows ever narrower I'm forced to reconsider. He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that? Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf. With his built-in defense ("but of course I'm flip-flopping! That's how I always play!") he can quite safely distance himself from her in this way, then vote for someone else. Tricksy.

I think that we could learn a lot from Glirdan's identity. I really think that if he is a wolf then Lalaith likely is too; if he is not, then lmp is almost certainly guilty. Since we can't count on a dream of Glirdan, there's only one other way to know for sure. As much as I hate to break a thing to find out what it is, we may have no other choice.

I know it's early yet, but at this point I think my vote is likely to go to Glirdan.

11-12-2005, 09:03 PM	#287
tar-ancalime Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: abaft the beam Posts: 303	Celuien? This has been done already, but please bear with me as I bravely go where...so many have gone before...and do it again. Assuming that wilwa is the Seer (which, interestingly, has NOT been absolutely proved yet--and I was so sure that this DAY would start with some certainty on that point), we have this configuration: Ranger: Celuien Seer: Wilwa Known innocents: Firefoot, Anguirel, Eonwe I'd like to point out that any of these three may be our Hunter--wilwa is an adept enough Seer to know that outing them as innocent is very helpful to us, while adding that one of them is gifted isn't all that helpful. All three of these players surely know that too, and Wilwa can trust them not to reveal themselves further. Unknowns, to include two wolves: me, Glirdan, Kitanna, Lalaith, and lmp This group may also contain the Hunter; again I think it's best to keep that information close. Now, IF (very scary possibility) Wilwa is not the Seer, then our pool of potential wolves grows larger, to include Firefoot, Anguirel, and Eonwe. I was wrong yesterDAY, but I'm going to refuse to learn from my mistakes and make the same prediction once again: Certainly things will become clear quite soon. It seems to me that by the time another DAY dawns we will certainly know Wilwa's identity, and with it the identities of the other three: the wolves won't let an unprotected Seer live. (Yes, yes, I know, rehash of things we've already said--but bear with me, I am going somewhere with this; I'm just a little late to the party as usual.) I'm going to confine my speculations to the five that fall under suspicion given Wilwa's identity as Seer, since it seems pretty unlikely to fall out any other way. I myself am, of course, beyond reproach, and as others have done I in their own posts I will decline to elaborate on my own virtue. Kitanna is a puzzle indeed--almost universally respected till quite recently, and now by her very presence in this ever-shrinking group of people without proven identities she invites suspicion. No one (myself included, I fear) has paid her much attention at all, and I'm beginning to wonder why. She's the only one of the five of us who hasn't been the subject of suspicion--at this stage in the game, isn't that in itself suspicious? Have we been remiss? If she's a wolf I'd suggest a Kitanna/lmp pairing, by the way--he making a lot of noise, she sitting back and staying unnoticed; it's the classic pairing. Lalaith I want to hear some more from Wilwa on Lalaith. Such a strong attack on her the other day--as the Seer you'd have to have known that if you died we'd go back and take that as a dream. What were you trying to tell us? Why were you so sure? Also, Lalaith was very much against the double-lynch plan yesterDAY. Even so, she said was willing to go along with it if everyone else agreed--could she have been hedging her bets till the last moment, not willing to cut both of her comrades loose at once? If Glirdan is a wolf then I think we need to look very hard at Lalaith. lmp And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad. Glirdan has been engendering a lot of discussion lately. Several DAYS ago I spoke up in his defense, but as the list of suspects grows ever narrower I'm forced to reconsider. He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that? Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf. With his built-in defense ("but of course I'm flip-flopping! That's how I always play!") he can quite safely distance himself from her in this way, then vote for someone else. Tricksy. I think that we could learn a lot from Glirdan's identity. I really think that if he is a wolf then Lalaith likely is too; if he is not, then lmp is almost certainly guilty. Since we can't count on a dream of Glirdan, there's only one other way to know for sure. As much as I hate to break a thing to find out what it is, we may have no other choice. I know it's early yet, but at this point I think my vote is likely to go to Glirdan. __________________ Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13)