The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

littlemanpoet · 11-09-2005, 02:47 PM

Work the simplest theory that accounts for all the variables.

Easier said than done.

For the record:

1) I have not read any posts since my vote, so if anything looks weird as if I've ignored someone's post, or that I haven't noticed that I'm going to get lynched, I haven't read that far yet.

2) The purpose of this "for the record" is the proverbial "if I die" scenario, intended to help the innocent villagers as much as possible, and also "calling the werewolves out", as it were. That is, I really don't think they'll try to kill me toNight because I draw too much suspicion away from them. That is, unless I'm on target with my observations as to who the feral creatures are, then they may think it wise to 'off' me, even though their number one target is obviously the seer. So I'll probably survive the Night if I'm not lynched toDay.

3) The following people I consider innocent because of their worthy and/or honest appearing contributions (in alphabetical order):
Anguirel
Celuien
Firefoot
Lalaith
Granted, not much of a list; but if we can consider these four to be provisional "known innocents", as it were, and if we're lucky enough to be right about them, we've got a big "one up" on the werewolves. Just an observation.

4) I'm leaning innocent with:
tar ancalime - her contributions seem to be on the up and up, although a werewolvish reading can be made of them; same is probably true of most of us, however.

5) The following people are 50/50 with me, having contributed but being questionable:
Glirdan
Kath
Kitanna
I'm not sure on these three. They may be innocent, they may not be.

6) The following people seem suspicious to me:
Eonwe - too quiet and his posts haven't really been full of meat.
Meneltarmacil - again, too quiet.
Wayne - way too quiet; however, as strongly as I can, I abjure, recommend, etc., that he not be the one we try to lynch first. If he is one of the werewolves, we should wait to lynch him until there are only 7 total villagers left & no werewolves have been killed; because he may be gifted, and we don't want to run the risk of killing off one of our primary assets; if he hasn't proven useful by the time I've suggested above, then lynch him.
Wilwa - I'm afraid that we're wrong about her, but I've already voted. If she's innocent, I strorngly suggest that we need to take a good hard look at the three remaining suspicious on my list.

There. That's all.

Edit: Having cross-posted with a boatload of folks, I am having second thoughts about Eonwe, who seems honest to me; so that means that I'm also having second thoughts about those 50/50 people .... at least one of them would have to be a werewolf, if not Eonwe or Wilwarin.

11-09-2005, 02:47 PM	#187
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Occam's Razor: Work the simplest theory that accounts for all the variables. Easier said than done. For the record: 1) I have not read any posts since my vote, so if anything looks weird as if I've ignored someone's post, or that I haven't noticed that I'm going to get lynched, I haven't read that far yet. 2) The purpose of this "for the record" is the proverbial "if I die" scenario, intended to help the innocent villagers as much as possible, and also "calling the werewolves out", as it were. That is, I really don't think they'll try to kill me toNight because I draw too much suspicion away from them. That is, unless I'm on target with my observations as to who the feral creatures are, then they may think it wise to 'off' me, even though their number one target is obviously the seer. So I'll probably survive the Night if I'm not lynched toDay. 3) The following people I consider innocent because of their worthy and/or honest appearing contributions (in alphabetical order): Anguirel Celuien Firefoot Lalaith Granted, not much of a list; but if we can consider these four to be provisional "known innocents", as it were, and if we're lucky enough to be right about them, we've got a big "one up" on the werewolves. Just an observation. 4) I'm leaning innocent with: tar ancalime - her contributions seem to be on the up and up, although a werewolvish reading can be made of them; same is probably true of most of us, however. 5) The following people are 50/50 with me, having contributed but being questionable: Glirdan Kath Kitanna I'm not sure on these three. They may be innocent, they may not be. 6) The following people seem suspicious to me: Eonwe - too quiet and his posts haven't really been full of meat. Meneltarmacil - again, too quiet. Wayne - way too quiet; however, as strongly as I can, I abjure, recommend, etc., that he not be the one we try to lynch first. If he is one of the werewolves, we should wait to lynch him until there are only 7 total villagers left & no werewolves have been killed; because he may be gifted, and we don't want to run the risk of killing off one of our primary assets; if he hasn't proven useful by the time I've suggested above, then lynch him. Wilwa - I'm afraid that we're wrong about her, but I've already voted. If she's innocent, I strorngly suggest that we need to take a good hard look at the three remaining suspicious on my list. There. That's all. Edit: Having cross-posted with a boatload of folks, I am having second thoughts about Eonwe, who seems honest to me; so that means that I'm also having second thoughts about those 50/50 people .... at least one of them would have to be a werewolf, if not Eonwe or Wilwarin. Last edited by littlemanpoet; 11-09-2005 at 02:56 PM.