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Yes the Numenoreans did build a haven close to Eraidor in the North, where they gathered lumber to take back to Numenor. And could sail up as far as Tharbad. They built Lond Daer...
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That's really interesting and something I had not read. I had imagined the Dark Numenoreans first (circa 2000) building outposts in order to traffic in tribute, slaves, and materials (although I hadn't even thought of lumber - pretty important if you live on an island) and later expanding those outposts into little kingdoms just for the sake of vanity. And that it was probably difficult to regulate these little fiefdoms even with the encampment in Umbar.
I'm sure this is an boring topic for most, but I'm really interested in what a political map of the latter half of the Second Age might have looked like.
BTW when I wrote about "educated" speculation I only meant that I wanted to know if people were positing their own ideas or things they had actually read. Not that some ideas might be "better" than others.
Cheers!