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Originally Posted by mormegil
Ah now I lament that I couldn't trust Mister Underhill sooner though because the day we lynched Formendacil I wanted to do a double lynching of Enca too but I didn't dare speak my thoughts openly to anybody I just had to hope and wait.
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Ah but you could have trusted him sooner. On Day 3 I was going to point out an additional factor in Cailin's now infamous slip-up post in which she suggested that the werewolves were experienced. I found this interesting, and seeing as it was part of the same paragraph that had pointed her out to me as a werewolf, I decided to hypothesize that Esty and Mr. U. were both innocent ordinaries, and see where that would lead me. It led to strong suspicions of Guy, Formy, and Encai, in that order. I wasn't sure which of those three were the two remaining werewolves, but I was pretty convinced that two of these were the ones. Enca's vote on Day 1 incriminated her: she saved Cailin. What about bluffing and double bluffing? Well, Occam's Razor is a handy tool:
accept the simplest answer that successfully accounts for all of the information. Fact: Encai did save Cailin (not Anguirel). On Day 2, Encai defended me and Mr. U., which I discounted based on my innocence and the hypothesized innocence of Mr. U. Formy defended Guy, which placed Guy in suspicion with me. Guy defended Enca. And Formy kept voting for Mr. U., whom I thought to be innocent. And Boromir kept voting for Formy, which fit my hypothesis of Boro's innocence and Formy's guilt. But I was going to save my strongest attack for Guy, because so much of what he said on Day 2 was self-incriminating. Oh well, maybe I'll last longer in another game.
