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Old 10-24-2005, 02:20 PM   #333
Mister Underhill
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Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Behind you!
Posts: 2,744
Mister Underhill has been trapped in the Barrow!
mormanalysis

morm has posted often and at length. He made the first player post of the game, in fact. Due to sheer volume, my approach is going to be to take an overview of his posts, only pointing out any suspicous or otherwise notable behavior at need, rather than doing a blow-by-blow summary as has been done for others.

He is the first to propose a plan -- the notorious "random" plan in #49. Though I'm still a bit confused on exactly how this was supposed to be executed, I think I start to understand its intent now. It seems a sincere idea -- if all villagers vote randomly and the wolves have an agenda, then in theory the wolves' agenda might be visible in their voting.

In #56 he thinks he and Eomer may have spotted something...

Later, he backs off of his own plan after it is met with confusion and/or criticism, acknowledging that most Day One plans are shot down anyway. He shows signs in #87 of his overall strategy -- playing his cards close to the vest. Overall I find this strategy fairly trustworthy. He doesn't go out of his way to cast suspicion unless he thinks he has good reason. Holds what he thinks he knows to keep the wolves out of the loop. Unfortunately, it sometimes keeps the innocent villagers out of the loop too...

Later admonishes other players for casting votes based on silence, especially so early in the game -- a position I tend to agree with. All of our "suspicious silents" have so far turned out to be innocents.

By the end of Day One, morm laid out a sensible -- especially by Day One standards -- case against Cailin and made equally sensible-seeming criticism of other players' picks. Did he get lucky with this Day One wolf vote? Could it possibly have been a bid to gain early credibility? It's a possibility I considered, but don't put much stock in. His was the first Cailin vote and from that point of view there didn't seem to be much to gain from it if he were a fellow wolf. If you consider that he also pointed the finger straight at Formendacil in his Cailin vote post (#122), this seems to point to morm's innocence beyond much doubt. If he's a wolf, it's an extremely bold move to out both fellow wolves on Day One -- especially when there wasn't much suspicion of either -- and I give him credit.

He makes what seems to be an honest error in his early Day Two analysis, but quickly spots it and corrects it (#146 and 147). Keeps the heat on Form, though he ultimately won't vote for him on this day. In fact, the day is surprisingly thin on analysis from morm. He says he has suspicions of Fea but probably won't vote for her, then later when he returns he ends up voting Fea after all, for somewhat cryptic reasons. This leads at least some players to think he may be the Seer.

On Day Three, he gives a seemingly level-headed and convincing assessment of the previous day's and night's events in #204.

In #211 he does a surprising about-face on Fea, outlining a possible scenario in which she is being set up by the wolves. Correctly predicts that either Firefoot or himself will die in the night.

He remains cryptic throughout the day -- though gives a convincing reasoning for why -- but keeps the heat on Form, especially with his post-by-post analysis in #236. Ultimately he votes Enca, claiming to be hoping to create a double-lynching scenario with Lhuna's help. He links himself strongly with Firefoot throughout the day by saying they are both innocent -- something which Firefoot does not object to.

Today, he's made sensible interpretations of Firefoot's remarks, making sure to keep Fea honest in her claims of having been dreamt of by the seer and her accusations of yours truly. His call for a daisy-chain investigation seems sincere enough. Proposes a double-lynching strategy to try to take advantage of decent odds for catching a wolf.

My assessment: if morm is a wolf, he's playing an extremely bold game, outing both his fellow wolves on Day One, voting for one wolf and then being instrumental in taking down the other one. He's led the charge in analysis and rarely makes accusations without proof. Overall seems to be playing a sincere game.

Of course, the nagging flipside of this is, how does he know so much? Was he just lucky, putting his finger on two wolves on Day One? Having been so astute, how is it that he's still alive?

If he's a wolf, he's playing the trickiest game I can imagine and has nerves of steel. At this stage, I have to believe he's innocent. Nothing in his posts -- other than remarkably astute wolf-hunting behavior -- leads me to suspect him.
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