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Analyses
Firstly, I have come under fire for voting for Shelob (nothing personal). Voting for a silent person makes sense in that it eliminates a potential wild card in the future. The first Day almost always results in an innocent dying anyway, so it's a good strategy.
Now, "something of substance."
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarė 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)
Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.
After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.
At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.
Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.
Conclusion:
Innocents:
Mormegil
Firefoot
LMP
Enca
Fea?
Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna?
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