[the phantom]

Personally, I think that had the Noldor not marched off to Middle-Earth, the Valar would eventually have shaken off the cobwebs

but I think the Valar would have had to come back to war eventually

I notice, Formendacil, that you used "eventually" in both of those statements. Yes- "eventually" is the key word when it comes to the Valar.

But the problem- the way things stood in the world at the time of Feanor's rebellion, "eventually" was not good enough. That's why the rebellion of the Noldor had to happen.

I've made this point elsewhere, but I'll make it again.

Beleriand was about five seconds from being completely overthrown when Feanor landed on the coast. It was actually the burning of the ships that got the attention of Morgoth's armies and kept them from finishing off their opponents. They rushed to attack Feanor, and he and his followers promptly shredded Morgoth's army.

Feanor was barely in time to save Beleriand. If he wouldn't have come when he did and burn the ships then what happens? Here's what- Morgoth overthrows Beleriand, and then he goes east with his armies and wipes out the extremely defenseless dark elves as well as the race of men.

I agree that the Valar would have "eventually" attacked Morgoth, but "eventually" would've been too late.

Eru was not happy with them for waiting so long to attack Morgoth the first time. This HoME quote was used earlier in the thread, but here it is again-

Eru 'accepted and ratified the position' - though making it plain to Manwë that the Valar should have contested Melkor's domination of Middle-earth far earlier, and that they had lacked estel

The Valar had a history of waiting too long.

The solution- the Noldor!

Tolkien even said this-

If we consider the situation after the escape of Morgoth and the reestablishment of his abode in Middle-earth, we shall see that the heroic Noldor were the best possible weapon with which to keep Morgoth at bay, virtually besieged, and at any rate fully occupied, on the northern fringe of Middle-earth without provoking him to a frenzy of nihilistic destruction.

The Noldor were meant to fight Morgoth.

Not only that, but they had to get to Middle-Earth to fight him as soon as they possibly could, because Morgoth was a short inch from overrunning it.

How do you get there quickly without the Teleri's boats?

Answer- you don't.

And so, we have three possible paths.

1) The Teleri lend the Noldor their boats, or ferry them to Middle-Earth. Result- The world is saved.

2) The Teleri don't allow the Noldor to use their boats. Feanor tries to take them and fighting ensues. The Noldor get the boats. Result- The world is saved, but the Noldor and Feanor are forever vilified in the minds of readers everywhere.

3) The Teleri don't allow the Noldor to use their boats. Feanor is too nice to take them by force. Result- Morgoth takes over Middle-Earth and wipes out the race of Man.

Option three results in the good guys losing, so we can toss that one out as a possibility. The only remaining options are 2, the way it happened, and 1, the way it should've happened.

So, as you can see, the choice for how events were going to unfold was completely tied to whether or not Olwe said "yes" to Feanor.

He said "no". And why did he say no? The Silmarillion says Olwe refused because it was "against the will of the Valar".

And so, it is now plain to see that the kinslaying was set in motion the moment the Valar made known that they didn't want the Noldor to leave, and was inevitable once Olwe decided to adhere strictly to the wishes of the Valar.

There are plenty of other points that could be made, but I think this one is a very interesting one. What does it mean? Could the Valar have been expected to do something different? What about Olwe? Or was the bloody exodus of the Noldor unavoidable the moment the Valar released Melkor amongst the elves?