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Old 09-26-2005, 07:03 AM   #321
Anguirel
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Location: The 1590s
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1420!

Right. Now to think.

The Ranger has bought us a little time, but the lynching of Kitanna presses us sorely. The stakes are high and we must make the right decision today. We have eight suspects, which means that each innocent has a 3/7 chance of choosing a wolf. (Y'see, chaps, I am properly educated! I can count, even if I am a no-good Gaurwaith.)

What I submit for the approval of the village is the following plan. The Ranger, alone of us, has a 1/2 chance of picking a wolf, because they know whoever they guarded last night is innocent. Should the village entreat the Ranger to come forward and name the person they saved?

On the plus side, this would mean all innocents had a 1/2 chance of choosing a wolf, and that we'd have two live proven innocents. We'd also have a long trail looking at those who suspected those innocents.

On the minus side, we'd still have a high chance of lynching an innocent and then the Ranger would be slain next night, leading to our irreversible defeat. (I checked the rules and I don't think that Rangers can guard themselves...correct me if I'm wrong.)

On consideration I think this is rather risky, but I would be interested in seeing your opinions on it as an idea.

Now, onto the suspects remaining-

Anguirel-I haven't voted for an innocent. Nor have I stuck to my guns. I know the phantom suspects me for the latter reason. However, I believe my defence of yesterday was adequate; my interest is in catching a viable wolf; and my point was proved yesterday, when the tide swung against me and an innocent was hanged. I am, however, suspicious due to the fact that Kitanna was high on my list, and accusation was implicit rather than actual. I can only say that I was impressed by the arguments of dancing spawn.

Boromir88-I voted for him yesterday, of course, also on spawn's counsel. I am now more unsure. The obvious innocence of Kitanna and my thoughts regarding Marcolie mean that he is now the only member of spawn's trio to still attract my suspicion. This rubbishes quite a lot of spawn's proposition. However, he's too unnervingly decent to be cleared.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant-disseminated a lot of fascinating, powerful, and mistaken deduction. May not be her fault. Quite equally, maybe. Her vote for Boromir could have been wolf-for-wolf-conceivably-if she imagined I was set on voting for Eonwe.

Eonwe-the phantom's curious accusatory non-accusation makes my suspicions of Eonwe deeper. Didn't vote last night. May still be thought of as too risky by most of you. I may return to pursuing him; he's a bigger priority than Boro.

Kuruharan-the obvious scapegoat, with Marcolie, for Kitanna's downfall; too obvious, I think, to be a wolf. I still have faith in him.

Lalaith-Not much faith here, really. Some slight entente with Kitanna. Cleared Marcolie and Kitanna-both innocent in my view-while suspecting Boro a bit; rather an unusual step, as spawn's theory bound them together. Wolf-for-wolf? Could be. Befuddled innocence? Could be.

Márcolië Lamen-is going to need a lot of saving. Don't worry, m'dear, our pact still holds. Vote for Kitanna looks as though it was partly Kuru-influenced (fiery rhetoric, alas!) and partly to show credibility as a non-wolf and no part of spawn's proposed triad. Voting for her as a reaction to the Kitanna mistake would be really stupid of us...and pretty typical, too.

the phantom-if a wolf, then I would tend to partner him with Eonwe. More suspicious than Kuru. This is largely, admittedly, a defensive emotion and reaction; perhaps leave for now and go for cohorts.

Possible triumvirates-

Boro-Spawn-Lalaith

phantom-Spawn-Eonwe

Boro-phantom-Eonwe

and many more...

Tricky, tricky. The Ranger's revelations could turn on the light in this confused darkness, but could also be our undoing.
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