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Originally Posted by Boromir88
Or we could even try to find the bear tonight?
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I too am most suspicious of
Meneltarmacil, due to his silence. There's still a chance, though, that the Bear could be one of the others and that he is buying time to think. So I think that it's too risky to try for the Bear to-Day. If we get it wrong, we have to contend with both
Durelin and the Bear to-Morrow and that could mess things up.
So, here's the final plan - Plan C.
First, wait as long as you can before voting, just to make sure that the Bear does not try to pass themselves off as the "real" Hunter or Seer. Then, when you have to vote, vote for
Durelin.
If anyone tries to claim that they are the Hunter or the Seer and we can still lynch them to-Day, then we should do so (if we get it wrong, we can lynch the other one to-Morrow). If we can't do that because there are already too many votes for
Durelin, then we either go for a double lynching to-Morrow or lynch one to-Morrow and, if we get it wrong, lynch the other the following Day (when there will still be two innocents left).
The following assumes that we lynch
Durelin to-Day.
Unfortunately,
Boromir88 will probably die to-Night, since the Bear will want to avoid either himself being pinpointed or two innocents being around to-Morrow. Unless I am certain of the Bear, I will not hunt tonight, to avoid killing another innocent. That means that I may die, but then
Boromir88 will survive. Happily, whatever the Bear does over-Night, it will not avail him if all goes to plan.
So, tomorrow, we will have (at worst) 1 known innocent, 3 other (unknown) innocents and one Bear. We vote as follows:
A (Hunter or Seer) - does not vote.
B votes for C
C votes for D
D votes for E
E votes for B
That assumes that there is only one known innocent. If there are more, then they don't vote either.
In this situation, the Bear will have to do one of the following:
1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.
2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies to-Morrow, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear (ie the one Villager who did not vote according to the plan) is lynched by the remaining two innocent Villagers the following Day;
3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or
4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.
The plan requires that
every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".
The plan guarantees, I think, a victory for the Villagers. It is up to the Bear how many innocents die in the process.
If anyone can see a flaw, please bring it up as soon as possible. Otherwise ...
Let's hunt some Bear!
(Hehe, I have been wanting to say that since Day 1.)
PS There is one question that I must ask of the mighty
Moddwen:
Can the Hunter choose not to nominate a victim over-Night?