[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, it occured to me on the way back to my hut (ie on the train home) that we can finish this here and now.

Durelin is either the Cobbler (likely) or the Bear (unlikely). She has already voted for herself.

If the Seer reveals him/her-self now, and perhaps identifies one or two others as innocent, we can simply lynch everyone else. (Sorry, I know that sounds harsh, but we don't want the Bear escaping to wreak havoc elsewhere, do we now). This we can do by everyone who is not a known innocent agreeing to vote for one other person who is also not a known innocent, thus:

A (Hunter) - does not vote.
B (Seer) - does not vote.
C (Durelin) - already voted for C
D - votes for E
E - votes for F
F - votes for G
G - votes for D

That assumes that there are only two known innocents. If there are more (because the Seer has identified them), then they don't vote either.

In this situation, the Bear (assuming Durelin is not the Bear) can:

1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.

2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies today, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear is lynched by the remaining innocent Villagers (3 or 4, depending upon whether Durelin survives or not) to-Morrow;

3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or

4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.

The plan requires that every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".

Of course, the Bear may declare himself as the Seer. Once the Seer has declared, therefore, we need to wait until every Villager has confirmed that they are not the Seer before we go ahead. If someone else claims to be the Seer, the Bear is clearly one or other of those claiming to be the Seer and we lynch one of them. If he is not the Bear, we lynch the other one to-Morrow.

The same applies with regard to the Hunter role, in the event that you still don't trust me (although looking back through my posts should reveal the clues that I have left).

The only problem with this plan is that, if Durelin is the Bear and the Seer is not able to reveal any other known innocents, then the Cobbler still has an opportunity to put a spanner in the works. I tend to think that Durelin is the Cobbler but, if anyone has any doubts, then we might have to revert to Plan A (see my previous post).

So, what does everyone think?

Edit: Cross-posted with lots of people. Looks like the plan outlined above is out of the window. I'll have to review what everyone has said to catch up ...