Me gifted? That's kind of funny.
Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time (which means a lot of people could be suspected), but I'll get all the voters together and see who's name keeps reappearing.
So, I think it's true that the bear doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it's not himself. I don't buy the strategy of the bear wanting to keep the wolves alive, first off, s/he doesn't know who the wolves are, and two it's not him/her that's getting lynched. I just don't think the bear would benefit greatly from the wolves being around.
I mean we have to think that yes the bear benefits from another kill a night with the wolves around, but that other kill could he/she could be the one that's knocked off. Therefor, the bear might want to get rid of the wolves as fast as possible, and again, doesn't matter who gets lynched (wolf or not) as long as it's not him/herself.
Since we've had such a hard time finding the bear at this point, I think the bear is hiding amongst everyone. Hiding in the majority, because right now it appears as anyone could be the bear, and it's hard to pick out one person. But, let's attempt to anyway.
So, Day 1 for Mithalwen (wolf)...
1. Captain of Despair
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Meneltarmacil
4. Boromir88
5. Alcarillo
6. Nonnacedak
7. Arcticstorm
8. Dancing spawn
9. Saucepan
10. Firefoot.
Day 2, for Captain of Despair (Ranger)...
1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Boromir88
4. arcticstorm
5. Dancing Spawn
6. Saucepan
7. Lalaith
Day 3, for Gil-galad (wolf)...
1. Meneltarmacil
2. Boromir88
3. Nonnacedak
4. Gurthang
5. Lalaith
6. Samwise
Day 4, for Laitane (wolf)...
1. SamwiseGamgee
2. Meneltarmacil
3. Boromir88
4. Gurthang
5. Nonnacedak
6. Dancing Spawn
7. Saucepan
8. Lalaith
The ones in bold are the ones that voted in the majority atleast 3 of the 4 times. I believe the bear is one that is in the majority. The problem is only one of these is the bear, the others are innocents. So, here's my further thoughts.
Boromir88- Me? Yes, I vote a lot in the majority, but bear, I can say I'm not.
SamwiseGamgee- Doesn't say too much. Seems to go along with whatever people have to say, doesn't put in much of her (correct?) own imput. Mildy suspicious.
Dancing Spawn- still not convinced one her. She recently has offered some useful information, told us some thoughts on people, not too suspicious, but again mildly.
Meneltarmacil- He does often vote and looking back through some of his posts he's grown in suspicion. Ok so here it is on Menel...
Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.
Also on Day 2 (i'll search for the post number) when deliberations on Captain and Gil-galad began he chimed in for the Seer to dream of whichever one did not die in the lynching. Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?
He's more than mildly suspicious, but I'm afraid at this stage it's hard to tell, Menel could be the bear, or could just be an innocent, as could everyone.
Finally Saucepan- To be honest, there's nothing I see in Saucepan to suggest that he is the bear. Though I must suppose some suspicion towards him, as no one can be trusted. But, quite frankly, I'm not too concerned about Saucepan being the bear.
Just doesn't fit, Sauce has been vocal, and attempting to help. The bear is extremely hard to locate right now which gets me thinking One, s/he's hiding in the majority, two s/he's quiet and low key.
So that points to...(and in order)
1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn
Note: This is just my reasoning, please by all means don't think I'm right, decide for yourself. It's just a possibility I am suggesting we all consider.
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Fenris Penguin
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