[the guy who be short]

Day One:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Well, you've basically openly stated that you're a Shirriff. I'm not so sure of the logic behind this but I'll go with it.

Should we explicitly work together or not?

Any ideas? I genuinely support your plan... I think. I need to think it through.

I've said I think there's more to you than meets the eye. We can't have people guess our relationship yet though - that would be semi-fatal. We need it just explicit enough that, if one Shirriff should die, the other should be recognisable.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Okay, I wanna talk about your plan.

The wolves will, according to chance, almost certainly kill a gifted villie this night anyway. Additionally, it would eradicate our ability to look at the way people vote. I don't think it's worth it. We're gonna loose gifted villies anyway. I say, leave us the small chance to get a wolf, and the ability to gauge votes.

What do you think?

Originally Posted by LMP

Okay, I've blown my wad on the plan. If people buy it, they do; if they don't, they don't. Beeg deeel. I think I pretty much stated I'm a shirriff, but some may think I'm a wolf acting like a gifted villager. So it's not all out in the clear yet. I'm not going to get all huffy about my plan, but you bet if I survive I'm gonna land I told you so's all over the place. If and when I get lynched, just before I do, I'll announce that you're the other shirriff. In the meantime, let's track accusers, defenders, votes, and pronouncements and see where things point.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Any suspects? I'm more suspicious of Firefoot for being present but not noticable. Also, she supports your plan with the major flaw of lack of voting records. She claims she would rather see innocent villagers die.

Kath implies she's the Hunter.

Eomer and morm seem innocent enough to me.

Holbytlass I'm not yet sure of.

Saurreg and Oro have said little.

Originally Posted by LMP

I was thinking that Eomer is being way too cavalier, despite his chosen profession.

No guarantees I can do much - my computer is croaking on me little by little.

Morm feels like a loudmouth style hunter to me. What post did you see Kath acting like the hunter in?

Don't overlook Orom. Seems a bit seedy.

Of Holby and Firefoot's little back and forth little can be made. They could be two innocents just yacking about strategy, or they could be two wolves choosing this to discuss because it gives them face time without having to really commit to saying anything worthwhile. Dunno.

Originally Posted by LMP

what if we declare ourselves right away and give the werewolves two known innocents straight up? One of us might get lynched by the stoooopid villagers but maybe not. Then the werewolves have to spend two nights killing us off. Then the seer can fess up on Day Three, and the Ranger can protect on Night 3. That gives us some control over the wolves. Or we could try this after one day and night, hoping we're both still around. maybe it's only important for one of us to declare ourselves. Thoghts?

Originally Posted by LMP

If on Day Two we announce that we're the shirriffs, we force the werewolves' hand. They have two choices: either (1) stay shut up and take us out the next two nights, or (2) two of them declare themselves as shirriffs (quite bold) which gives us a real battle, but then we know who two of the werewolves are because an innocent wouldn't do such a thing. Yes, we might get lynched, but then we are revealed as shirriffs when we're dead, and then two werewolves are revealed. They'd actually be pretty stupid to choose (2) because we win. So they're forced into (1) which buys the rest of the village two free nights. What do you think?

I won't be back to take a look at all this until its officially NIGHT, so we'll not be able to PM until tomorrow. But if you reveal the two of us together in one of your posts tomorrow, I'll know your decision. By the way, that's how it should be done. One shirriff ought to name both of us; that makes it clearer.

But if you don't want to go that way and think we can be more useful by being quiet about our identities, please don't feel like you have to do this. Gotta run!

Originally Posted by LMP

Any suspects? I'm more suspicious of Firefoot for being present but not noticable. Also, she supports your plan with the major flaw of lack of voting records. She claims she would rather see innocent villagers die.

Kath implies she's the Hunter.

I don't see this.

Eomer don't trust himand morm okseem innocent enough to me.

Holbytlass I'm not yet sure of. me either

Saurregprob. clean and Oro don't knowhave said little.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Sorry LMP, I just woke up! If you must go, cya. I'll be sending PMs as I read, but you porbably won't get to read them until Night.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

You won't get this until toNight, so I'm setting uot my thoughts.

If we openly declare ourselves as Shirriffs now, we'll be of little use. Here's why:

During Day, we come out to avoid innocents being lynched. Usually there is a 3 in 12 chance of bagging a wolf, but if we openly declare ourselves, this becomes 3 in 10. However, seeing as we're not being voted for, the chance of getting awolf actually is 3 in 10 already. So no point coming out for Day.

During Night, the plan was to force the wolves to go after us so that they don't get the Seer. Okay, I need to think here. Usually there is a 1 in 8 chance that they would get the Seer (presuming we lynch an innocent toDay). If we come out, the could ignore us, and try to bag the Seer with a 1 in 6 chance!

If they do this, they have a 2 in 3 chance of getting either the Seer, Guardian, Hunter or Mytho. Usually they wouldhave a 1 in 2 chance. I think we're increasing it too much - I don't want to risk doing that. If they see the increased chance of killing smebody important, they might well decide to leave us alone and go for it.

If they do that, then there are 10 people left, two of whom are us - known innocents. However, if we simply declare ourselves on the morning of Day 2, then the same thing happens - 2 known innocents in a group of 10. I suggest we do this - If we come out toDay, if the wolves are clever, they'll leave us alone and try to kill a Gifted Villie and almost certainly succeed.

That said, I've left strong hints of your innocence - the wolves probably think I am the Seer or we're both Shirriffs already. If they think that, they will definitely kill me.

I'm not sure how much sense my ramblings made, but basically, I would rather we declared ourselves on the morrow and give the wolves a pain in the posterior .


http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=30 - Kath is defensive of the position of the Hunter. I think it's her.