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That's why I say do a completely random approach.
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But how do we know you can be trusted to choose somebody completely at random? A wolf could "randomly" choose an innocent. In any case, the chance of killing a Gifted Villie is double that of killing a wolf done randomly.
I would advocate the tried and tested method of evaluating people's moves, but I still need to devote some time to scrutinising LMP's plan. I guess the shortage of innocent villagers is a major shortcoming.