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Originally Posted by Child of the 7th Age
I do sense melancholy in Tolkien, a wistfulness and an acknowledgment that there can never be complete victory, at least in the frame of this world. Yet I never sense loss of hope. Perhaps we are missing the boat on this thread. Yes, in Tolkien's mind the long defeat is there, but so too are the victories won at such a hard price. To take those away, to ignore or belittle them, is to wipe away what makes it all worthwhile. The diminishing is there, yet so is the meaning that stands behind our actions.
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I see that there is a lot of hope too, indeed it comes through as strongly as the sense of sadness and regret. But this hope is very bittersweet. It is all that is left to cling on to when Middle Earth gets really difficult. There are few certainties, and for some of the characters at times they have no other certainty than their sense of hope; here I'm thinking of Frodo and Sam in particular.
The years have brought the same cycle to Middle Earth, slow descent into war, the feeling that all is lost, and then victory, brought about by hope building the courage of the people. But some people forget the lessons of the past. It brings to mind what Tolkien himself experienced, taking part in WWI, supposedly the war to end all wars, only to see his own son enlisted in an even more horrific war; and it was hope which bolstered the morale needed to acgieve victory in both situations. Sadly, war still goes on, as does persecution and suffering.
I think that this is what is meant by a 'long defeat'. People soon forget the struggles of the past and start new wars. In the 20th century conflicts happened one after the other. Middle Earth was luckier in that it did have extensive peace between wars, but it is the same endless cycle. The New Shadow shows just how Tolkien couldn't picture Middle Earth even in the early fourth age totally without troubles. Yes, it's a bleak picture, but hope is still vital, even if it is bittersweet.