[The Only Real Estel]

I have also been wondering as of late if we've been paying to much attention to the SpMs, SoNs, phantoms, Fordims, Estels, Kurus, & morms of the village an not enough to those that seem to be avoiding suspicion almost entirely.

Originally posted by me in an edit, reposting to make sure it is seen:

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

It helps that we know the cursed villager has not been converted yet, so we're still only dealing with three werewolves. But we've still got a big problem.

Originally posted by Holbytlass:

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.

This is interesting. Please let me know which part of phantom's theory you think he supported well enough that it could be possible. The theory didn't work because he used a lot of partial quotes & early defenses - I would protect anyone from being accussed early on because of a 'throw-away' joke anyday, & anywhere. Also, a lot of the things that phantom used would have implicated him also...if you looked at the full quotes. Just read his theory & my response again.

I believed Phantom's innocence also, actually posting a defense of him (that I thought was strong enough to save him); or at least I believed him to the point that I wanted to have another day or so to review his case again. And note that he suspected I would vote for someone other than SpM when it came down to it - I did not.

I am still very suspicious of SpM. Unfortunately, he knows how to speech innocent speech, whether he is or not, so it is very difficult to decide for sure.

Also, is there something to SoN's parting theory of Fordim & SpM?

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

As he said, it's is only a 'wild hunch,' and just because he was innocent doesn't make his theories invincible by any means, but a few things that happened did draw my attention towards the pair.

First, I thought that if they were working together, SpM would probably eventually back off & applaud Fordim for trying, but reiterate that there were to many holes to try it (so he wouldn't really be switching stances). Fordim would than back of his plan & the two would become allies again. This has pretty much happened (though I will readily admit that it might be by innocent intentions), but I was also a little bit suprised by SpM's reasoning for laying off of Fordy.

In post #51 SpM said:

I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

And then in post #124 SpM says:

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him.

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Again, this may be all a bunch of nothing, but I found it strange, & it won't get out of my head...