[The Saucepan Man]

It is sad indeed that we are faced with the death of such an important member of our community. Unfortunately, since she seems to have been very low on most people’s list of suspects (and she was certainly low down on mine), it does not surprise me that the Werewolves went for her. And now it turns out that she was our Guardian. Well, at least she was able to protect one of our number from a grisly death. We should review our previous days’ discussions and see what accusations have been made against her, but I suspect that they are few in number. We should also look to see who she suspected the least, since she would no doubt have sought to protect one who she thought to be innocent.

In the meantime, I have a few thoughts that I would like to share with the village.

I should first say, in case anyone asks, that the reason that I voted last yesterday was twofold. First, I wanted to make sure that there was no tie in the voting, resulting in the death of two innocent Villagers. And secondly, if I was to be lynched, there were a few things that I wanted to say by way of a last message from a Villager whose innocence would have been established shortly thereafter.

As I indicated on a number of occasions yesterday, the phantom was never top of my suspect list. I had no great suspicion of him before yesterday (and even defended him on a number of occasions), and the only basis that I really had for suspecting him yesterday was the way that he went into overdrive in trying to defend himself. I would have preferred to have voted for another candidate, but in the end was given no real choice. Because of the way that the village acted yesterday, it came down to a question of him or me. Moreover, by the time I actually voted, any vote other than for the phantom would have resulted in both he and I being lynched, which would have resulted in the deaths of two innocent Villagers.

Which bring me to my main point. I hope that everyone can see that the entire proceedings yesterday were carefully (and masterfully, I might say) orchestrated to push the village in a certain direction. Very early on, a “shortlist” was identified for lynching. And it was put forward on a very logical basis. It comprised all of those who had voted for both Evisse and SoN.

The names on the list were the phantom, The Saucepan Man and The Only Real Estel. I now know that the phantom was innocent. I am also now pretty much convinced that The Only Real Estel is innocent, on the basis that he could have eliminated both Evisse and the phantom on Day 1 had he wanted to (which would have been a good Werewolf tactic, whatever the phantom may have said yesterday). And I know that I am innocent. I obviously don’t expect everyone blindly to accept that, but I hope that what I say below will go some way towards convincing those of you who are also innocent.

So, at least two, and probably three, of the names on this “shortlist” were those of innocent Villagers. How more ideal could it be for the Werewolves? As long as they could persuade the village to concentrate on at least two of those names, they would be free from any risk of being lynched and guarantee that an innocent Villager was killed at the end of the day. They might even succeed in lynching two innocents but, if not, there would still be prime suspects for lynching the next day (since, if the plan worked, each Villager on the list would end up voting for one of the others, ie an innocent).

So what happened yesterday? Well, the Werewolves concentrated their efforts on the phantom and me. They worked tirelessly through the day, first making sure that consideration remained focussed on the two of us and, secondly, in making sure that every Villager voted for one or other of us. We now know that there were three Werewolves operating that day. I believe that one took responsibility for keeping the focus on me, while the other two gunned for the phantom. Since, following the preceding days’ events, I was already high on most people’s list of suspects, it would not take so much effort to persuade people to vote for me. The phantom would require a little more effort (and probably more subtlety). They did not really mind which one of us was lynched, as long as it was one of us. The other could wait until the next day, they would have thought. It might have been the other way round, but I believe that one Werewolf went for, and voted for, me, while the other two went for, and voted for, the phantom.

Their plan worked pretty well too. I suspect that they didn’t really go for The Only Real Estel, because it was easier to concentrate peoples’ minds on two names, and easier to ensure that the phantom would vote for me and vice versa. And go for me and the phantom, they certainly did, succeeding in limiting the discussion to the two of us very early on and ultimately achieving a fairly even distribution of votes between the two of us (so no particular suspicion would attach for the Wolf or Wolves that voted for the one that ended up being lynched).

But it did not go entirely their own way. In limiting the eventual “shortlist” to two names, they hoped that the phantom and I would direct our energies towards taking each other out. That way, the survivor would be heavily implicated when the other was lynched and his innocence proved. The phantom fell for it and went for me in a big way. But I would not play along. I made no direct accusations and made clear on a number of occasions that I was not convinced of the phantom’s guilt. Kuruharan tried to suggest that I had implicated the phantom but, as I pointed out, given the two Villager shortlist, anything that I said in my defence would indirectly implicate the phantom. I most certainly did not “go for him” in any big way. And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait. It is perhaps one of the few right decisions that I have made in this game up until now, and it possibly means that suspicion may not be focused on me today quite as much as the Werewolves would have liked (or at least I hope so).

Now, I appreciate that what I have said largely assumes my own innocence and that there will be those amongst the remaining innocent Villagers who do not necessarily accept that I am innocent. But I would ask you to review everything that happened yesterday with an open mind and tell me that it does not make sense as a perfect Werewolfian strategy. And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Based on the above, I now have a pretty good idea of who two of the Werewolves are and strong suspicions as to the identity of the third. But, before naming any names myself, I would be interested to hear what the other Villagers have to say.