[the phantom]

It is time.

What time, you ask?

Time for a famous Phantom Theory.

The last one I had was a stretch (I readily admitted it), but this one may be more to the village's liking.

Estel and Saucy are working together! They are wolves!

Estel defended Saucy-

I think that this can surely be written off as jest-Kuru and Phantom have hardly been trustworthy figures in two past occasions (that I can’t name more fully because past villages aren’t supposed to be referenced ). A hard look at the beginning can really be no more than jest in my opinion.

Estel agreed with Saucy-

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.

Saucy agreed with Estel-

Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

Also, Saucy used this argument several times in order to make Estel look innocent-

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour.

My response to that- why would a wolf favor a double lynching? If you recall, we wolves in the last town (Spawn, Nim, and I) had a double lynching handed to us but we refused to take it. Why? Because it is better to keep a likely-to-get-lynched person alive for one more day to lynch them then because it gives you an extra night to kill.

In other words, if there are three people that you think people would lynch, you would want to lynch them on three seperate days so you would get to make three kills at night following the lynchings. If you lynch two on one day it removes one of your free killing nights. If you lynch three then you only get one single night to kill.

It is wise for wolves to keep suspicious folk around as long as possible giving them as many nights as possible to kill the more innocent looking ones. Does everyone understand what I am saying? As a former wolf I know what I am talking about.

If you are understanding me, you will know that Saucy's defense of Estel based on the lack of a double lynching does not work.

Saucy said this-

But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Here, Saucy uses the argument again. He is basically saying "Phantom, I think you are innocent, and if you are then so is Estel."

It sounds to me like he's trying to get on my good side by pointing out my innocence (he knows I am since he's a wolf), and at the same time he's trying to move Estel firmly off my radar based on my own innocence. Very very clever. This is something that I would do if I was a wolf.

And what about Estel's Saucy-phantom-SoN theory? He included Saucy on there in case Saucy got lynched (it would make Estel look innocent). But he purposefully grouped Saucy with SoN and I since it was possible that either SoN or I would be lynched. You see, he tied two people who he knew to be innocent to Saucy so that when SoN or I got lynched and proven innocent it would make Saucy look innocent, too. Very clever. That is exactly what I would do if I was a wolf.

In addition, Estel continues to "suspect" Saucy all the way until the end of the day, but votes for SoN instead. Is this pattern going to continue- always suspecting Saucy but never actually voting for him?

Yes. He's just trying to seperate himself from Saucy.

Saucy took a little stab at Estel-

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

This is just to seperate himself from Estel, just as Estel has tried to seperate himself from Saucy-

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Also, look at the opinions of those who have died.

SoN was suspicious of Estel-

I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.

SoN was suspicious of Saucy too-

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves

Not that SoN's suspicions were concrete- I'm just showing that there was another innocent who suspected them besides myself.

TGWBS pointed an early finger at Saucy, and he's dead now-

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.

There! I've made my case for Saucy and Estel!

Read my case over again if you have to. I truly believe that this is the most solid case out there right now.

I think I have a good chance of being right- but if I'm not, forgive me and pat me on the back for trying.