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Old 06-05-2005, 07:22 PM   #124
The Saucepan Man
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
The Saucepan Man has been trapped in the Barrow!
1420! <-- Time for another beer!

Well, I have reviewed the proceedings to date and what has it told me? Not a lot I am sad to say. The Werewolves are doing a good job at merging in.

But I have gleaned a few possible insights (and I put them no higher than that).

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him. Secondly, I don’t (on reflection) go with the “double bluff” theory concerning TGWBS’s murder. If Fordim is a Werewolf, TGWBS’s death clearly puts him in the frame. Yes, a Fordim Werewolf might have bargained for the likelihood that it seems too obvious a “frame up”, but that would still carry a risk for him (ie that it would be seen as a “double bluff”). Wouldn’t it be more sensible for the Werewolves to frame Fordim, on the basis that he is already a lynching suspect and then point out the “double bluff” theory? And even if Fordim is not lynched, there are enough other non-Werewolf lynching suspects (myself, for example) to give them ample opportunity to try to ensure that one of their own is not taken. Framing Fordim carries no real risks for the Werewolves. It might get him lynched, but no matter if it does not. Whereas a Werewolf Fordim relying on TGWBS's death being seen as too obvious a frame-up is putting himself at quite considerable risk.

So, who pointed out the “double bluff” theory, thus implicating Fordim? Well, I did (and I have since reconsidered), but the first to do so were Kuru and Shelob.

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations. These are the suspects who I consider may be Werewolves attempting to “fly under the radar”.

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself. He has been more vocal in his accusations today, but all that he has really done is attempt to direct the voting towards Fordim and me, both prime lynching suspects for today. Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said) I now strongly suspect Fordim to be. To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

The second is Shelob. On the first day, she gave quite strong support to Fordim’s “Seer dream” proposal, and then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected! There was no transition whatsoever between the two contrasting positions. Other than that, the only accusation that she has made has been directed at Fordim. And, in her last statement, she vaguely supports Kuru.

The third is Holbytlass. She offered no strong opinions yesterday, and ended up voting for Azaelia on the “flip of a coin“. The only evidence against Azaelia is that she has not contributed much. Not nearly sufficient evidence to warrant a vote, in my view. And, having yesterday voted for Azaelia on the basis that she has been quiet, Holbytlass today said, quite angrily:


Quote:
I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything.
Anyone notice an inconsistency there?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence (other than the fact that morm voted for him). He has also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect. That makes him a suspicious character. But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Mormegil I have no basis upon which to accuse. He has done nothing to arouse my suspicions, while nevertheless being quite forthright in his opinions (ie not "flying under the radar"). And I am reasonably convinced of Firefoot’s innocence, largely because her thoughts seem to be going in the same direction as mine.

That leaves Azaelia and Oddwen, who I have no handle on (unsurprisingly, given that they have been pretty silent throughout). What can I say? One or both of them might be Werewolves, but I have no real basis for accusing them.

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).
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Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 06-05-2005 at 07:26 PM.
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