The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

Firefoot · 06-05-2005, 10:24 AM

I'm going to put up a tentative speculation that no werewolf voted for another werewolf on Day 1. There were enough different choices for votes that it would be easy to not have to vote for a werewolf and not look suspicious.

This would mean that of any two people who voted for each other, only one of them could be a werewolf. The only case of this is Evisse and phantom. I'm not sure that this is conclusive since these two were where most of the votes were distributed so it would make sense that they would vote for each other in order not to get lynched...

So until we know who a wolf is, this does not help a whole lot, but I thought I'd put it out there for consideration.

At the moment, my primary suspicions lie on SoN. His replies tended to be short and lacking strong back up for his opinions, and he was also in agreement of Fordim's plan (obviously this reasoning didn't work with Evisse, but I think phantom's reasoning that: "If I was a wolf I'd love this plan" still stands). His vote was also the only vote towards Only Real Estel, for this reasoning: "I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right." We at least had enough to work with that "just a feeling" is not a very sufficient reason for voting to lynch someone. (Note: I am not saying that I necessarily think Estel is innocent. I'm just saying I didn't see a lot of evidence of guilt.)

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

And I'm still unsure of the phantom. He's just not been consistent enough.

And Kuruharan (though not nearly so high on my list), who has been extremely slippery in his opinions, and also would seem to have defended the odds of his being a werewolf a little bit too much.

06-05-2005, 10:24 AM	#105
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	I'm going to put up a tentative speculation that no werewolf voted for another werewolf on Day 1. There were enough different choices for votes that it would be easy to not have to vote for a werewolf and not look suspicious. This would mean that of any two people who voted for each other, only one of them could be a werewolf. The only case of this is Evisse and phantom. I'm not sure that this is conclusive since these two were where most of the votes were distributed so it would make sense that they would vote for each other in order not to get lynched... So until we know who a wolf is, this does not help a whole lot, but I thought I'd put it out there for consideration. At the moment, my primary suspicions lie on SoN. His replies tended to be short and lacking strong back up for his opinions, and he was also in agreement of Fordim's plan (obviously this reasoning didn't work with Evisse, but I think phantom's reasoning that: "If I was a wolf I'd love this plan" still stands). His vote was also the only vote towards Only Real Estel, for this reasoning: "I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right." We at least had enough to work with that "just a feeling" is not a very sufficient reason for voting to lynch someone. (Note: I am not saying that I necessarily think Estel is innocent. I'm just saying I didn't see a lot of evidence of guilt.) Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves. And I'm still unsure of the phantom. He's just not been consistent enough. And Kuruharan (though not nearly so high on my list), who has been extremely slippery in his opinions, and also would seem to have defended the odds of his being a werewolf a little bit too much.