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Tuor of Gondolin · 03-01-2005, 09:11 PM

About numbers of the elves:

Michael Martinez wrote an interesting (and as he admits, very speculative)
essay on that subject:
http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/tolkien/54681

Part of it that seems relevant here is:
======================
"But 362 Years of the Trees, that gives us another 8 rounds of expansion. In total, we end up with 19 generations of Noldor, Vanyar, and Amanyar Teleri (but not 19 generations of Elves). The Noldor, at the time of their rebellion, could have numbered around 130,000. Ten per cent of them (13,000) refused to go into exile. Another unspecified number under Finarfin turned back. Just for the sake of being presumptious, let's say that approximately 1/2 of the rebellious Noldor followed Fingolfin and that 1/4 followed Feanor and the remaining 1/4 followed Finarfin.

Suppose Finarfin and half his people turned back? That would leave 7/8 of the rebellious Noldor (minus their losses in battle and storm) to continue the flight into exile. Of course, almost any set of numbers would work, but it seems likely that if there were 130,000 Noldor at the beginning of Feanor's rebellion, fewer than 100,000 would have reached Middle-earth.

There in Beleriand they would find the Sindar (the Mithrim, Falathrim, and Iathrim) and the Green-elves outnumbered them (by some ridiculous amount not worth calculating, since these populations would by this time also have suffered casualties through Morgoth's invasion).

Over the next 500 Years of the Sun (appproximately) the Noldor would continue to increase their population, suffering occasional setbacks. They would end up with a population of well over 1,000,000 Elves.

Of course, by the time you get up into the hundreds of thousands of Elves, people start raising their hands and saying, "Excuse me! What about Turgon's ten thousand?" That is, Turgon led ten thousand soldiers to the Nirnaeth Arnoediad. And he supposedly took a third of Fingolfin's people with him when he founded the city of Gondolin. Ten thousand soldiers doesn't seem like very many given the huge numbers of Elves we're looking at.

But where does it say that Turgon brought all of his warriors out of Gondolin? Did he really strip the city of all its defenders? My feeling is that Gondolin was still well defended. The Noldor had already suffered grievous losses in the Dagor Bragollach. Dorthonion had been lost, the Vale of Sirion had fallen, and the sons of Feanor had been driven out of their lands for a while. Maedhros ended up taking back the lands which had been lost, but he didn't have all the Noldor on his side. Orodreth refused to join the Union of Maedhros, and Orodreth supposedly still had one of the largest if not the largest kingdom in Beleriand. So Turgon's ten thousand soldiers don't really imply there were fewer than 1,000,000 Noldor by the time of the Nirnaeth.

Well, the numbers are about as bogus as one can get and still call it a discussion of Tolkien and Middle-earth. But no matter how you work your way through the generations, the Noldor end up with a huge population in Beleriand, and the Sindar must be even more numerous. So when Tolkien has Morgoth turn the tables on the Eldar and his legions of Orcs go streaming across the countryside, the devastation is worse than anything prior to the Napoleonic wars in true history. Perhaps it's even worse than the Napoleonic wars themselves. What the Eldar achieved in Beleriand seems fragile because we have only the one map done by Christopher Tolkien, and it names fewer than a dozen cities.

But think of a map of Europe where at most two dozen cities are named. How sparse and empty the countryside would seem to someone looking at that map. And yet we know better. Whether there were many more cities than are named in the stories, there were a lot of Elves. It shouldn't seem strange at all that Earendil would be so desperate as to abandon his wife and children to spend years seeking for a way across the Sea so that he could deliver the prayer of Elves and Men to the Valar.

And Morgoth's accomplishment also comes across as that much more horrifying and awe-inspiring. He wiped out at least a couple million Elves."
========================

03-01-2005, 09:11 PM	#6
Tuor of Gondolin Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Pennsylvania, WtR, passed Sarn Gebir: Above the rapids (1239 miles) BtR, passed Black Rider Stopping Place (31 miles) Posts: 1,548	About numbers of the elves: Michael Martinez wrote an interesting (and as he admits, very speculative) essay on that subject: http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/tolkien/54681 Part of it that seems relevant here is: ====================== "But 362 Years of the Trees, that gives us another 8 rounds of expansion. In total, we end up with 19 generations of Noldor, Vanyar, and Amanyar Teleri (but not 19 generations of Elves). The Noldor, at the time of their rebellion, could have numbered around 130,000. Ten per cent of them (13,000) refused to go into exile. Another unspecified number under Finarfin turned back. Just for the sake of being presumptious, let's say that approximately 1/2 of the rebellious Noldor followed Fingolfin and that 1/4 followed Feanor and the remaining 1/4 followed Finarfin. Suppose Finarfin and half his people turned back? That would leave 7/8 of the rebellious Noldor (minus their losses in battle and storm) to continue the flight into exile. Of course, almost any set of numbers would work, but it seems likely that if there were 130,000 Noldor at the beginning of Feanor's rebellion, fewer than 100,000 would have reached Middle-earth. There in Beleriand they would find the Sindar (the Mithrim, Falathrim, and Iathrim) and the Green-elves outnumbered them (by some ridiculous amount not worth calculating, since these populations would by this time also have suffered casualties through Morgoth's invasion). Over the next 500 Years of the Sun (appproximately) the Noldor would continue to increase their population, suffering occasional setbacks. They would end up with a population of well over 1,000,000 Elves. Of course, by the time you get up into the hundreds of thousands of Elves, people start raising their hands and saying, "Excuse me! What about Turgon's ten thousand?" That is, Turgon led ten thousand soldiers to the Nirnaeth Arnoediad. And he supposedly took a third of Fingolfin's people with him when he founded the city of Gondolin. Ten thousand soldiers doesn't seem like very many given the huge numbers of Elves we're looking at. But where does it say that Turgon brought all of his warriors out of Gondolin? Did he really strip the city of all its defenders? My feeling is that Gondolin was still well defended. The Noldor had already suffered grievous losses in the Dagor Bragollach. Dorthonion had been lost, the Vale of Sirion had fallen, and the sons of Feanor had been driven out of their lands for a while. Maedhros ended up taking back the lands which had been lost, but he didn't have all the Noldor on his side. Orodreth refused to join the Union of Maedhros, and Orodreth supposedly still had one of the largest if not the largest kingdom in Beleriand. So Turgon's ten thousand soldiers don't really imply there were fewer than 1,000,000 Noldor by the time of the Nirnaeth. Well, the numbers are about as bogus as one can get and still call it a discussion of Tolkien and Middle-earth. But no matter how you work your way through the generations, the Noldor end up with a huge population in Beleriand, and the Sindar must be even more numerous. So when Tolkien has Morgoth turn the tables on the Eldar and his legions of Orcs go streaming across the countryside, the devastation is worse than anything prior to the Napoleonic wars in true history. Perhaps it's even worse than the Napoleonic wars themselves. What the Eldar achieved in Beleriand seems fragile because we have only the one map done by Christopher Tolkien, and it names fewer than a dozen cities. But think of a map of Europe where at most two dozen cities are named. How sparse and empty the countryside would seem to someone looking at that map. And yet we know better. Whether there were many more cities than are named in the stories, there were a lot of Elves. It shouldn't seem strange at all that Earendil would be so desperate as to abandon his wife and children to spend years seeking for a way across the Sea so that he could deliver the prayer of Elves and Men to the Valar. And Morgoth's accomplishment also comes across as that much more horrifying and awe-inspiring. He wiped out at least a couple million Elves." ======================== __________________ Aure Entuluva!