Well said Orual. But in place of the idea of luck, I would say Gandalf had faith. Faith in Eru's plan, and faith that Frodo was the best one for the job.
Gandalf was not willingly separated from Frodo and Sam, so to say he was mad because he sent them alone is a theory built on a false premise.
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I say that fighting a war against Sauron, even when outnoumbered 100 to 1 would have been wiser.
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How is fighting a hopeless war wiser? That's like playing Russian Roulette with a bullet in EVERY chamber, to use your analogy.
What would have happened to the rest of the world if Gandalf had not been there? Grima needed to be gotten rid of, Saruman delt with, the Lord of the Nazgul on Pellenor, etc. Gandalf had things to do other than babysit Hobbits in a plzce where all he would have probably done is drawn more attention to them. Without Gandalf there might not have been much left of Gondor even though the Ring was destroyed. All those Orcs and Easterlings didn't just *POOF* disappear when the Ring went in, so who would have delt with them?