Hindsight is 20/20, Baran, and we know everything that happened from the forging of the Ring to its destruction. Gandalf didn't; he was a Maia, but he couldn't see the future. He gave the Ring to Frodo because there was no one else, and it had to be destroyed. As for relying on luck, doesn't everybody? Hop in your car and get on the street, and only luck is keeping you from being sideswiped by a drunk driver. Frodo was, as they might say on Babylon 5, Middle-earth's last, best hope. Nobody else could have taken it. Gandalf and Elrond set it up so as to help Frodo as much as possible, but only a Hobbit--and most likely only Frodo--could have kept the Ring without succumbing very quickly to its power. Sure, luck was involved. But luck is always involved. Gandalf weighed the odds and knew they were poor, but he did all that he could. He wasn't perfect, but he wasn't an idiot, either. A lot was expected of him, and he couldn't be all things to all people in all places. He would've gone to Mordor with Sam and Frodo, and perhaps less luck would've been involved if he had. But circumstances proved ill for that. So I think that Gandalf did, as he had said, the best he could with the time that he was given in the circumstances.
~*~Orual~*~
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"Oh, my god! I care so little, I almost passed out!" --Dr. Cox, "Scrubs"
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