But there are strong arguments for a two-parter, both artistic and $$$.
1) Two movies could be 2 or 2 1/2 hours each, rather then a probably
longer one-off movie, hence more showings per day in theaters.
2) Two movies would not only be twice as many movies (duh!) but
anticipation could grow for the conclusion.
And it's hard to see PJ passing up the cinematic pyrotechnics of
Beorn coming to the rescue (perhaps even him attacking orcs earlier
in the movie). Plus, how about one of the charges by Smaug on Laketown
being similar to the pass by the fireworks dragon at the Birthday Party?