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He didn't say "I believe" or "I think" or "It's likely". There was no difference in the presentation of the two statements.
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Does he need to?
It's always understood that there's an "as far as I know" implied with such a statement that's obviously his best guess for what's going on in the Dark Lord's mind. If you had asked Gandalf during the Shadow of the Past timeframe if Saruman was in hot pursuit of the Ring and 'joining' Sauron, I'm sure he would've dismissed the notion. Afterwards, at the Council of Elrond, his feelings would've been very different - he found out very much between these two instances, in terms of both Saruman's ill turn and Sauron's plans. About grasp of the 'full picture,' we don't know for certain until it's over (or almost over) - this is just a statement I make in retrospect, though it did seem to be case after a few chapters.