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Oh yeah i forgot one factor.....Gandalf, though he never mentioned it im certain he had intentions he did not reveal.
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He explains these in
Unfinished Tales, and the strategic advantages of the scheme are set out in the appendices to
The Return of the King as well. Gandalf involved himself mainly in order to get rid of Smaug and replace him with friendly forces before the War of the Ring could begin in earnest. Also, since Thorin had personally requested Gandalf's help, he was in the Wizard's debt, which would have been useful later had Thrór's heir survived the Battle of Five Armies.
Thorin's plan is fairly typical of the pipe-dreams of exiled monarchs in that it's ambitious, grandiose and nebulous. In fact I doubt that the company had any idea what they were going to do when they got to Esgaroth: most of them probably had vague ideas about stealing as much as they could carry and scarpering before they were detected. Thorin was probably hoping to find that Smaug had died or moved on, leaving him free to take up his grandfather's throne, but since he hadn't even planned a specific route to Erebor, they were all very fortunate to arrive at all, let alone re-take the Lonely Mountain.
[ August 30, 2002: Message edited by: Squatter of Amon Rudh ]
[ August 30, 2002: Message edited by: Squatter of Amon Rudh ]