This is what my friend said when I asked her the very same question. She thinks Gandalf thought Sam probably just went home because that's all he wanted to do anyway. I agree with that and disagree because of all people Gandalf would know just how loyal Sam is to Frodo, but then again there could still have been a chance for Sam to go home.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain
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