Perhaps, but one must also take into account several factors. First of all, the arrow that shot Smaug down was of special repute. It was fashioned by the dwarves of Erebor during the height of their power, or so Bard claims right before taking that final, fateful shot. That alone gives the material properties of the weapon greater fortitude. Second, Bard also knew what he was aiming for. With Smaug flying around and creating general chaos, the odds of a random arrow piercing that specific spot on his breast are less than inspiring. It's possible, surely, but not probable - even if a bunch of archers were firing upon him. Finally, Bard has a personal grudge against the dragon, being a direct descendant of the Kings of Dale, whom Smaug gratuitously destroyed centuries earlier. The force behind his shot was one of bitter vengeance, not only for destroying the home of his ancestors but also his current home.
Also, Bard had always been able to retrieve that one black arrow. Not to become too deterministic, but perhaps there's a reason why that one particular arrow hung around for so many years, just as a certain hobbit was "meant" to get a ring. But let's not look too deeply into things, shall we?
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