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The Doom of Doriath was set into motion the moment that Beren walked in. Melian herself knew that one would come, and a doom far greater than any she could envision would drive him, and that one would pass through her Girdle and enter Doriath. I don't think she was talking about Carcharoth. She was talking about Beren. The downfall of Doriath began when the first seeds of greed were sown in Thingol's heart, when he realized that he could send Beren to fetch a Silmaril from Morgoth. At that moment, he began to desire the Silmarils, and whosoever desired those fateful jewels would bring the Doom of Mandos upon him.
After the main events of the Theft of the Silmaril, Doriath was too shock-ridden to completely recover. It would forever be doomed to fall, thanks to the temptation that its king failed to overcome.
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But Melkor also was there, and he came to the house of Fëanor, and there he slew Finwë King of the Noldor before his doors, and spilled the first blood in the Blessed Realm; for Finwë alone had not fled from the horror of the Dark.
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