The idea that Dale and Erebor in any substantial way protected Rivendell always seemed odd to me. If you look at the map, it makes no sense at all: an attacking army from practically any direction wouldn't need to go anywhere near the Lonely Mountain to get to Rivendell. The Beornings would be much better placed for that protective role And the idea that an ancient settlement of powerful Noldor needed a bunch of men and/or dwarves for protection also feels odd. Granted, it would have been a huge blow for the side of good if Elrond had gone down, but the same could be said for any of the major communities of elves, men and dwarves. Obviously Tolkien was trying to shoehorn Bilbo's story into the broader history of the Third Age, and also give Gandalf's role a compelling strategic motivation to match his enhanced stature, but I don't think that this particular detail worked. The broader idea of removing Smaug as a potential weapon of Sauron and thus threat to Rivendell was more successful as a concept.
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