I think part of it has to do with timeing and where the ring was. If the ring was destroyed, Saruman would win. Another scenario in which Saruman might win would be if he were given a lot of time to become more 'evil'. As he stands at the time of the War of the Ring, I don't think that he is as far gone as Sauron is. He doesn't have the experiences, the knowledge or the resources to defeat Sauron. If he had more time I think that it would be a fairly equal match, providing that Sauron is kept busy with things other than 'bettering' himself.
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