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Who's to say that the ships, or some of them, would not have been destroyed? The Noldor were planning on leaving Valinor against the will of the Valar and sailing in chase of a pretty dangerous Dark Lord, the most powerful of the Valar no less, and a fearsome and gigantic spider with a serious over-eating problem. That seems to me to be a fairly risky maritime undertaking.
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Well, that's of course impossible to say, but surely the kinslaying was the factor that triggered Ossės wrath and have him sunk many of the ships. Eventhough Fėanor did act against Valars will and he said some stuff that was wrong, still my belief is that they (Noldor, Fėanor) hadn't done anything really terrible previous to this. I say that Ossė wouldn't have sunken any ships if it weren't for the kinslaying and the deaths of the Sea Men he loved. Valar had no authority to prohibit Noldor from returning.