Interesting theories. When I first read it, I thought the old man was Saruman, coming in to spy on the travelers or looking for his Orcs. But on second thought, the old man could have been Gandalf, as mentioned before. After all, Gandalf had just been sort of...reincarnated as Gandalf the White, and no one had called him Gandalf in a very long time. People called him Mithrandir.
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Gandalf, yes. That was the name.
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This is proof that perhaps he did not remember that he was called Gandalf. Also, as mentioned before, maybe he meant that it wasn't Gandalf the
Grey they saw. Gandalf does that sometimes.
I agree with the horses' proof. The horses wouldn't have been greeting an old friend if it were Saruman who appeared; they greeted Shadowfax. So perhaps Gandalf called Shadowfax earlier that day, before the travelers entered, and he came that night.
It could have been Saruman, maybe sending out some sort of apparition, ghost thing to spy on the travelers too.
It's quite a debatable question.