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I think you are confusing Eru with his servants, the Valar. They are definitely not subtle.
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I would say the same of you. Do you forget the varied acts of Ulmo? He used a trickle of water to change the path of the world, where Eru destroyed Numenor to achieve the same goal.
The Istari, lest you forget, are the machinations of the Valar, not of Eru. They took millennia to do what they set out to.
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If you are going to "choose" Frodo the Hobbit, then you have to "choose" to have Hobbits around so that there will be a Frodo when the time is right.
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Men have Free Will, this precludes such a thing. Frodo only lost his free will when he started hanging out with Gandalf, this does not mean that Drogo ever lost his.