You know, I always kind of figured that the "hole" in Smaug's bejeweled armor would have been filled by the Arkenstone. Now how's that for the hand of fate?! Bilbo would have never found the Arkenstone if it hadn't fallen off of Smaug's tummy, and Smaug would not have been killed.
As to the original question, I believe that the Thrush had the greatest hand in Smaug's death, since he was the one who carried word of Bilbo's discovery to Bard. In fact I remember when I first read the Hobbit, that I believed the Thrush to be Gandalf in bird disguise. So that means that the Thrush AND Gandalf lead to the demise of Smaug.
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