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Of course, by the quote above, you could say (from a technical standpoint) that Tolkien still could suppose the incarnation to eventually take place without writing it into the story.
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Yes, and he felt, apparently, that pointing to it, via the Athrabeth was as far as he could go in the context of the Legendarium.
Bt I must confess, I do not quite understand why someone who would write an entirely new creation myth, and postulate several apocalyptuc scenarios [Second Prophecy of Mandos] would feel constrained by the Incarnation...