An interesting factor that hasn't been taken into account in these "what-if" scenarios is the corruptive lure of the Ring, especially as it neared Mount Doom. Had Gandalf and/or Aragorn led the way into Mordor, could either one have long resisted the urge to take the Ring from Frodo (with only the best intentions in mind, of course)?
I doubt that Aragorn would have been much inclined to follow Gollum's lead into the Black Land.
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