What if Saruman had repented at Orthanc ?
 

Before Gandalf broke Saruman's staff, he gave him the choice of "coming down" from Orthanc and making amends. After Saruman refused, Gandalf said with regret : "He knows our need, none better .... great service he could have rendered".

Imagine if Saruman HAD "come down". Could he have been trusted ? Would Gandalf have told him about Frodo's situation ? What practical aid could he have given ? Would for instance Gandalf have sent him to Minas Tirith to help in its defence ? Or sent him to resist the Nazgul ? Or maybe he would have asked Saruman to use the Palantir to give disinformation to Sauron ?

It was clear that Gandalf envisaged a role for Saruman if he repented, but in practical terms what would or could he have done, or been allowed or trusted to do ?

No.

Hope not.

That would have been of some use.

I think Saurman's ability to resist them probably rested on the fact that he was in Orthanc.

Out of all the available courses of action that probably would have been the least prudent. Even if Saurman's will was good Sauron could probably have seen through him.

Saruman would probably have been helpful in knowledge of the plans of the Enemy and just knowledge of things in general. Out of all the Istari Saurman was probably the wisest in book learning.

Ultimately, I don't think Saruman could have been trusted. He was jealous of Gandalf as things already stood, and he wouldn't have liked being in a position of having to atone for his past evils under Gandalf's watchful eye. Gandalf had taken over as the main mover against Sauron, and as Gandalf noted, Saruman was disinclined to be subservient to anyone. If he had come out and renounced his past actions, I doubt he could have kept his desire to undermine Gandalf at bay indefinitely. He was too far fallen, and I think he would have feigned, perhaps even to himself at first, that he wished to aid the West. But the desire for power and hatred of Gandalf would, in the end, have likely led either to his attempting to overtake Frodo and get the Ring, or informing Sauron of the plan.

Another problem I would envision is that, repented or not, Sauron had a very different idea on how to wage war; a way that (especially considering his Voice) might have insinuated itself into the alliance. I can easily imagine sometime during the seige of Minas Tirith Saruman sidling up to Denethor as saying "you know I do have this formula for this blasting fire....." How would the whole seige have gone if Gandalf had to face a Denethor who was opposed to him and not consumed by despair (which he well might not be, since with the fire and other devices of Saruman, he might have thought Minas Tirith had a chance of opposing Sauron's forces) Beyond this you could have Aragorn coming to a Minas Tirith still ruled by Denethor (if he wasn't despairing he might not have decided to take his own life (with the devices he might not have sent Faramir out of Osgiliath, as he might not have though is necceary) and Denetor who might think himself powerful enough to take on Aragorn's Ranger's (on the grounds that if Aragorn were slain he and his sons could hold the stewardship forever) and the Rohannim (a stab in the back move, with the aim of conquering Rohan and making it a Gondorian Colony). If Faramir did still go out and get wounded, then in his despair, Denethor migh have not been content to merely take his own and Faramir's life, he might have had blasting fire set and blown up the whole city, decide it was better for it to burn as well.

I rather doubt that, given the state of Minas Tirith, preparing for a siege, there would have been the time or resources to make enough blasting powder to destroy the entire city, or even a significant portion of one level. Its introduction into the war against Sauron, however, could have had interesting results, making the West appear more powerful than he had anticipated, and possibly forcing him to push his war even sooner and more strongly than he had intended. Perceiving that Saruman, the developer of the powder, had turned against him and was cooperating with his enemies would, I think, have been of significant concern to him, never mind that Saruman's "magical" powers were (apparently) inhibited by the surrender of his staff.

In any case, I do think that if Saruman, having lost all but the strength of Orthanc as a refuge, agreed to submit to Gandalf, it would have required at least a partially genuine change of heart. Depending on how things went, I can see a number of possible outcomes.

If he behaved in a suspicious manner (which could range from being shifty to being overly obsequious), he might require so much of Gandalf's supervision that Gandalf would not be free to do some crucial things during the siege -- rescue Faramir and hold the Gate against the Witch King, for instance. It could have some very bad results.

On the other hand, if Saruman didn't require incarceration in Orthanc, I suppose there could be an outside chance that some of the more "hasty" Ents might be persuaded to join in the fight against Sauron. If not in Gondor, I could see some of them going to Lothlorien to help out there, which might draw Sauron's attention even farther from Frodo, dividing the war into two fronts.

Which might also be a good place to send Saruman, as long as he and his staff remained in separate places. Galadriel's attitude toward him (as well as her possession of one of the Three) might make her a very effective "parole officer."

But if Saruman's surrender was genuine, he might well confess to what he had instigated in the Shire. If he was honest with himself, and felt that going to Gondor would place him in danger of falling back into evil ways (which it well could, there being the temptation of another palantir), or put him too close to Sauron and his revenge for comfort, he might be willing to go to the Shire, take control from the ruffians, and put things back in order. It would, of course, require a true change of heart, which I think is something that would have to occur in order for Saruman to surrender to Gandalf in the first place.

Just a few random thoughts. :)

All right... *prepares the Voice*

As this topic interests me greatly, and it is not the first time I would have thought about something like that, I shall add my two cents to the debate to consider.

First, a few reactions to what's been said:

I believe there is one very important thing to note in this debate. Inziladun, with all due respect, I consider your answer here not completely appropriate. "Could have been trusted" - well, what does that mean? By whom? That's the point. By the reader? Well, that depends, likely not. But we are talking about the others. By Gandalf? I daresay: yes. By the Rohirrim? Well, that does not sound too good. By some Gimli? Likely not. There would have been a conflict, Gandalf would certainly dare to trust him, if he believed that Saruman has truly turned away from his past deeds. But even then, he could not gloriously ride back to Edoras "look, we have a new strong ally!" Saruman would have been shot to death by some angry Rohirrim, or killed in a similar way like in Bag End, just a while earlier.

The only thing I can believe is Saruman providing the necessary information - about whatever things he knew about Sauron, just as Kuru said. I believe in the atmosphere of general mistrust, nothing much more would have come to being.

Otherwise:
I believe not. Even if Gandalf did trust him, he would not have dared to speak openly about this quest - unless Saruman was really clean and white like never before. Although, well, perhaps this is a matter of question. If Saruman really seemed like trustworthy - and Gandalf the White seemed to have a far better insight into "real" thinking of people than Gandalf the Grey had - and mainly, I believe he would not be fooled again by Saruman - Gandalf might eventually tell him. After all, it's likely the topic will come - either from Gandalf's side, or from Saruman's side. But, I can almost hear what Gandalf would have told him:
That would be simply another way of saying "shut up", and at most, Saruman would have at this point started shouting on Gandalf what a fool he was to send Frodo to Mordor, almost copying the behaviour of Boromir on Amon Hen. Either he would have gone violent, let's say pushed Gandalf off a horse, and some Rohirrim would have reacted immediately with shooting Saruman - the Bag End scenario all over again - or, Saruman would have calmed down and somehow, the people would go on, however Saruman could not give any assistance when it came to the matter of Frodo and the Ring.

Otherwise, if it came to a situation that Saruman would be "sort of" turned, came to Minas Tirith and was accepted by Denethor (who trusted him more than he trusted Gandalf! Actually, I think Denethor says somewhere that Saruman was his good ally!), he might have once again tried to apply his influence - especially if he was left without Gandalf's supervision - and try to once again seize some power, along the lines Alfirin presents. If it came to such a scenario, and Saruman was not really completely turned, I find it quite believable. However, like I said above, I think Gandalf the White would have seen through a mischievous Saruman, and sent him to do some work where he could not do that much harm.

A few other things I would put to doubt:
But some Ents did fight in Rohan! Cf. 11th and 12th March. So it will really not make that much difference, I think.

I really can't see Saruman liking to be sent to Galadriel. Of all things, he would be completely disgusted by that (cf. what he says when they meet in one of the last chapters). Indeed, if he truly surrendered, he might accept this really humbly - but really, even a repented Saruman looks weird to me if he was supposed to humbly accept such a thing.

In some way, this would make sense, but when I think of it, I really cannot imagine that happening. Upon hearing about the Shire, Gandalf would have been horrified. But will he really send Saruman there, in that case? It sounds simply weird to me. That won't do. Can't say why. But just try to imagine that. Seems weird. At most, sending Saruman to Rivendell to tell Elrond or...? Or sending Merry and Pippin to the Shire? But the war was near, really, I think the Shire would now seem like "this has to wait" thing. Besides, did it really come to the worst yet back then? I think most of the really bad things in the Shire happened only after the War ended elsewhere. All right, anyway, I find this question a bit controversial and simply - I feel it won't fit into the story, in some way. I am leaving it be, myself.


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All right, but now to the rest. I shall now try to narrate a "fictional history" of the War of the Ring from the moment Saruman had repented when Gandalf asked him about it in Orthanc. You may accept it, or you may not, of course. That's my personal fabulation, one possible view how things could have gone. And you will see what is my point. Ready? All right, here we go.

WHAT IF SARUMAN CAME DOWN

On Gandalf's request by the very door of Orthanc, Saruman repented and came down. He, Gandalf and others debated the whole rest of the day, trying to come up with as much helpful information and things Saruman could tell them. Eventually, Saruman would tell Gandalf about the Palantír he has and how he used it. Gandalf is shocked and decides that the Palantír is best kept in safety (probably, it stays up in Orthanc).

At night, a winged Nazgul flies to Orthanc (just to remind: he was sent far before Pippin looked into the Palantír). He is immediately aware of Saruman's treachery and flies back to report. Gandalf is shocked, shouting the War has come and calling Shadowfax. He instructs everybody to go wherever they can and rides to Minas Tirith. After he leaves, Aragorn makes up his mind and decides to show himself to Sauron in the Palantír. Saruman admits him to the Stone. Sauron is horrified by the alliance, now he is certain his plans went all wrong. He commences the attack. Théoden goes to Edoras to muster the Rohirrim, admitting Gríma back to his service, leaving him in Edoras to take care of some civil matters - he will carry a sack of flour on his back to the mountains, if anybody allows him to. Merry and Pippin secretly make a plot - two silly hobbit heads work better than just one - to get into the Rohanian army.

Aragorn with Saruman leave for the Paths of the Dead. This way, Saruman is under good supervision, and also on a way where a Wizard can be really useful. He also uses all his powers to speed up Aragorn's coming to the City. The wrath of the Dead and the Wizard combined is horrible. The arrival to the City is spectacular. The Orcs and the Southerners are crushed. Meanwhile, Denethor burns himself alongside Faramir.

The new King needs to act soon, performing the last step. The army of Gondor and Rohan marches to the Black Gate. Focused on them, the Eye misses Frodo for good. The Ring is destroyed. The Eagles save Frodo and Sam.

Meanwhile, in the North, battles are fought as well. The end of Sauron's forces descending into Rohan is just a bit more deadly, as there are less Ents needed to guard Isengard (nevertheless, some remain, to ensure nobody gets into Orthanc. Treebeard keeps the keys for the time being).

Everybody returns to their homes. Saruman is not given the stewardship of Orthanc back, for the sake of not bringing back his old self, and even then, the King needs somebody of his own kin to care of the tower. However, instead, for earning the King's trust in the War, being by his side on the Paths of the Dead, in Pelargir and on Pelennor, Saruman is made the Steward of Ithilien, taking care of cleansing the evil in Imlad Morgul - who would be better suited for driving away the sorcery than a Wizard like Saruman?

The Hobbits return home, but they are surprised by the Ruffians plundering the Shire - because Saruman had informed them about his dealings with Lotho earlier, but the Hobbits did not expect to find how it got out of hand. In the end, they will "have to fight half-orcs and ruffians in the Shire itself – to rescue Lotho Pimple!" Indeed, the Ruffians took their own initiative, and one of their bosses took Lotho's role, the poor hobbit was intimidated like the rest of the hobbits were. Even if Gandalf suspected something (and it's likely he did), he let the four hobbits solve the problem, being sure that they can do it by themselves. The Scouring of the Shire passes well, and eventually, the Ringbearers depart the Middle-Earth. Saruman is not admitted back to the West: not yet, perhaps some other tasks await him in the future. It is no big deal, the same thing happened to Radagast. Perhaps, like Radagast became the friend with birds and beasts, Saruman will eventually become a wise man among the people and friend of knowledge of many, like he was in the very beginning. But this tale does not tell about it anymore.

So, summa summarum, what are the changes? Basically, in the global view, really none. The things concerning the main characters: Faramir will be dead, and it is likely Éowyn will not recover from her grief. On the other hand, Lotho will still be alive, even though going through a very traumatic situation (and his mother likely going through the prison as well, anyway). Both Saruman and Gríma will be alive as well. There will be also a few more dead Southerners (one, two, or three, not much more).

It is a fictional history, mind you, and I am not saying it is 100% that this is what it would have to be like. I took a bit of "poetic licence". But I am stemming from some basic ideas, and this is how I think the things could go if Saruman "came down".

When I said I didn't believe Saruman could have been trusted, I meant that I did not believe his repentance could be permanent and he would have fallen into his old thoughts and desires, for the reasons I stated. I was not speculating on who would have been likely to give him a chance and take him at his word.
As you say, Gandalf would have, and said as much after the breaking of Saruman's staff. I was simply opining that doing so would have been unwise.

Yep, thanks for making it clear. I just thought this objective formulation (posed in the first post anyway) was a little unclear. All right, makes sense.

WOW, Legate, what a great post! I like "what if's" so much and your scenario is excellent.

In your answer the changes to the history are minor. But you see, IMO, you displace one straw and the whole pile may collapse. For instance:
Now Gandalf leaves alone, Pippin is left with Merry. They would try to ride with the Rohirrim, naturally sticking together. But Eowyn can carry only one hobbit on her horse. So what? Would both hobbits remain behind? Or would they find another horse to ride together?
Anyway, there would be no hobbit close enough to help Eowyn at the Pelennor. Not only would she likely get a free ride to the houses of Lamentation, but the Witch-King would remain alive and well. And here the victory of Pelennor becomes uncertain, Saruman or no Saruman.

I am not saying that all this will necessarily happen. Maybe something else will go wrong. There are so many what if's...;)

Looking at all these "what if''s" , I'm beginning to think that if Saruman had repented it might have caused more trouble than it was worth !

I think that if I'd been Gandalf I'd have sent Saruman to northern Wilderland, to help the Beornings, the Elves in the Woodland Realm in Mirkwood and the Dwarves and Men around the Lonely Mountain and Esgaroth.

Sending him to attack Dol Guldur would also have been tempting but I think I agree that Galadriel and Saruman might not have got on, so getting him away from the environs of Lorien was probably a good idea.

Well, thank you :) I like "what if's" as well, that's after all why I wrote it in the first place ;)

Yep, I said that it is just a possibility, counting on what I consider likely and keeping the original intentions of the characters (their thinking and personalities will likely not change drastically based on Saruman's turning). As for Merry and Pippin, well, I figure that the two of them would have found a way - at most, stealing a horse for themselves or something of that sort.

It is true that one might question the very reasons for them going to war: if they were together, Merry might not get as much time to stick to Théoden, and therefore not pledge him his loyalty. Also, he will feel no need to go to war not to "stay behind" in comparison to Pippin - as Pippin will be with him, of course. Perhaps they will both stick to Aragorn and company - now that might be even more interesting, they will likely be scared to death by the Paths of the Dead, but alongside Legolas and Aragorn, they will likely keep it up.

I was, of course, stemming from the fact that Gandalf would not have the same reason to take Pippin with him as in LotR: since the Palantír will remain locked safely inside Orthanc, Pippin would not get to its proximity in the first place and thus not be tempted to look at it. Of course, one could come up with a way for Pippin to get to it (like, "tailing" the Wise ones when they would go to take a look at it, and in a very Pippin-ish way sneaking to Orthanc at night: with a funny episode of, instead of putting a stone under Gandalf's head, putting a spoon into Saruman's pocket instead of the Keys to Orthanc or something like that). In that case, the changes to the story will be really minor. But based just on mere probability, it does not seem likely.

Nevertheless, when it comes to Witch-King's defeat, it will come in the end anyway. On first thought, one thinks: all right, Éowyn might have nobody to save her, that means that she will indeed die. However, we are forgetting about one important thing. There is no Pippin to warn Gandalf about Denethor burning himself alongside Faramir - and that means also no Pippin to distract Gandalf from riding out to deal with the Witch-King!

As we can see, Gandalf was reluctant to go even here - now if there was nobody to stop him, he will ride out and save Éowyn, possibly even Théoden, if he arrived on time! He might not kill the Witch-King (unless we imagine some heroic scenario of the WK, being driven away from the Rohirrim by Gandalf, chooses to descend upon the incoming ships - of course, there is some Return of the King going on! How dare they! - however, Aragorn having Saruman by his side, we might witness another "Battle of the Sorcerers", and if the WK landed aboard the ship, if Merry and Pippin were with Aragorn, perhaps we could see one Hobbit suddenly attacking WK from behind, and after the WK turns and the poor Hobbit faints from Black Breath, the other Hobbit, horrified, picks up his sword and crying "for the Shire!" stabs the Nazgul for good - with some assistance provided by Aragorn, Saruman, Legolas and/or Gimli to distract the WK from smiting the little Hobbit. Speaking of that, does Legolas or Gimli count as a "living Man"? Likely not).

So, as you see, I don't think it would be that much of a problem if neither Merry or Pippin were there. It is always questionable, but some basic things could be done, one way or the other.