Uh, right, there are only two wolves, so Morsul's post about voting Huey unless the seer came forward (and saying that was unlikely) probably isn't what I thought it was. Oops?

Sigh. :(

Work is quite busy today, and I didn't really have time to catch up over lunch. I'll be back in roughly five hours and will be able to get more done.

Oh, come now, really? -_^ I've just gone back and checked this, because it simply wasn't believable.

Posts in the first 40 (ie, until I left on Day 1):

Galadriel - 3
Huinesoron - 9
Rune - 9
Nerwen - 1
Boro - 6
Lalaith - 1
Zil - 4
Pitch - 6

(Hand counted; yes, I know there's one missing, don't know where)

People I directly addressed:
Rune - 3
Boro - 6
Sally - 1
Nerwen - 1
Pitch - 3

(+2 posts discussing everyone)

Times people directly addressed me:

Rune - 4
Boro - 2
Pitch - 3
Zil - 2

So no. There really wasn't.

hS

Honestly, I love this interpretation and almost wish it were true.:D Nerevar guide me is a battlecry uttered by the Dunmer in Skyrim (who venerate Nerevar as a saint). I used to conclude my voting posts with Á vala Manwë!, but having played lots of Skyrim in the past years I felt some change was in order. Believe what you will though.

Since you asked for an explanation why I suspected you yesterDay, Lal, you talked a lot about who you didn't think was a wolf but didn't actively suspect anybody, much less give any arguments for a suspicion, except when you borrowed what I'd said about Boro on D1. Plausible behaviour for a low-lying lone wolf who hoped to avoid confrontation IMO. Nerwen's observation in #136, about you diffusing responsibility for your vote, fits with this. (By the way, did you notice nothing about that post that might have kept you from voting Nerwen if you're innocent?)

This actually feels like a moderately sound point - why would Lalwolf vote for an absentee rather than doing something to save her packmate? But... there were five people yet to vote and about an hour to go, so if you thought someone else (Boro or Zil had a vote each) looked more suspicious, you could've been expecting someone else to lay down a vote. Or there could be another reason behind it (perhaps by that point you were sure Zil would vote Rune, and with no-one else around you figured a vote elsewhere would be an obvious attempt to save him)... I dunno, 'I can't be a wolf because I would have done this instead' just sounds really sketchy to me.

...?

Sally - it would be good to know when you get back if you still feel [b]Boro[/i] is a definite Ordo, following his seeming decision yesterday to vote so as not to affect the lynch.

Da votez (known innocents italicized):

#113 Morsul -> Huey, because 'as Sally said easy first vote' could be wolf-on-wolf, and Rune's comments on Huey could be 'wolf-to-wolf communication'.

It doesn't seem like Morsul dreamt Huey, rather like he was taking a lead from Sally, whom he had dreamt and found innocent (he pretty much said so in #91). So Morsul being confirmed as the Seer says nothing about Huey's guilt or innocence.

#119 Huey -> Nerwen (1) because she 'makes big posts that don't seem oriented on actually finding wolves', referring to her analysis of the Zil kill. So basically because of one early D2 post that didn't come to any definite conclusion about who killed Zil why. I find that a shaky reason.

#122 Shasta -> Pitch (1), because I pushed Boro too hard and tried to 'subtly push suspicion on not-Rune' on D1. Looking back on D1 now, I get that it may look like this and he may be genuine.

#141 Lalaith -> Nerwen (2) 'because I don't think either Pitch or Huey are guilty' and 'with so few of us, it seems silly to start vote-spreading'. Nerwen herself commented on how Lalaith was very non-committal here and made it look like her vote was forced by circumstance. Furry-looking vote IMO.

#143 Sally -> Lal (1): 'For spreading things too thin yesterday', and possibly following Shasta's #123 where he mentioned Lalaith as 'outside shot at her being the wolf based on absenteeism'. Known innocent vote, what can I say.

#145 Pitch -> Lal (2), for reasons given in earlier posts and summarized in my last. Also because, after Nerwen's #136, I wanted to push an alternative to her that wasn't myself.

#147 Boro -> Pitch (2), no reason given. Revenge for D1, piggybacking on Shasta's suspicion, or just trying to save Nerwen (as his preceding post seems to suggest)?
Boro, I'd really like to know whether you saw my vote before you voted.

So far Huey's, Lal's and Boro's votes seem the most dubious to me.

See above.

It was shaky - I said somewhere (#119, actually, with my vote) that it was 'in the absence of better candidates'. But it wasn't just based on the one post - I was also thinking of her #78, which looked longer on my phone and basically says 'yesterday doesn't show us any packmates for Rune, unless it does'.

And that's two of the four posts she'd made at the time I voted. The others were a poem and the word 'Hey'.

I accept that the premise for my vote was shaky (and, quite obviously, wrong), but I'd prefer to have it accurately represented. :)

What, the eye? I spotted that when looking for something to explain your comment. What does the eye mean? (Silly question - I guess it means 'I'm a Ranger and am saying so in a way that older players understand'.)

hS

Some of the post icons have sometimes been used as hints from or for the Gifted: the Sword for the Ranger, the Arrow for the Hunter, the Eye or Palantir for the Seer.

Nerwen using the Eye could either have been a Seer hint contesting Morsul's claim (and for all we knew at the time Morsul could still have been a fraud), or an attempt to confuse the wolf and distract them from Morsul, like a good innocent; either way it wouldn't have been a good idea to lynch her.

Well, that's a somewhat reductionist reading. She was reacting to your speculation and mine about a silent wolf among the non-voters, specifically my observation that there was no overt attempt to save Rune, and saying that Rune's packmate could still be among the early voters - which was a valid point.

Also, adding a disclaimer to your vote like you and Lalaith did isn't generally considered a sign of innocence. "I'm forced to vote this way for lack of anything better, but I don't really mean it." Easy for a wolf to hide behind that.

Lal, 1.42am GMT 1st January
Pitch, 1.50am 1st January
Pitch, at 7.33pm GMT 1st January
Blimey, I´m glad you´re not my boss IRL :rolleyes:

Absolutely, and also she wasn't a Wolf, but was the Ranger. I accept that my interpretation was wrong, but still don't want the fact that I actually had one to be dismissed.

Stars, no, please don't declare me innocent for that! I see your point, but at the time her absence and (what I interpreted as) long posts saying nothing really did look more wolfish than Lalaith's posting to my eyes. I was a bit off-balance due to having my main suspects - Morsul and Sally, earlier in the day - taken very abruptly off the table when it was already 9pm on New Year's Eve.

~

From today's posters, I find you (Pitch) much less suspicious than Lalaith; while I've accused you both of misrepresenting me, your response holds together, while Lalaith also advanced the 'maybe the seer just didn't feel like winning' idea - and still hasn't named a suspect other than 'Huinesoron if the Seer dreamed of him'. Of the people who've posted today, I would lynch her over you (or obviously Sally).

But I'm really nervous about Boro's continued silence. Goofiness Day One, and then fading into the background after 'clearing' himself by claiming it was all a ploy? I don't like it.

hS

Lal: Touché, I suppose:D; it was a special night after all. I don't think what I referred to required much in depth analysis, but if you didn't notice, that would make your vote rather less suspicious than more.

Ok.
I´ve been reading over everything since page 2 now, and I am pretty sure Huey is the Cobbler. On Day 2 he said at least twice "I can´t see Pitchwife as a wolf." So there I was thinking that Morsul was a Cobbler masquerading as a Seer, but it was Huey all along.
Which by the way, is a sensible explanation for why Morsul voted for him but didn´t out himself as the Seer. He´d found the Cobbler but hadn´t found the second wolf yet.

There are 20 uses of the word 'see ' on page 3 of the thread (posts 81-120), and well over half of them are mine - it's just a word I use a lot. I shall make a mental note to see about being more careful with my word-use in a context where 'see' could actually be a message.

This sort of stretch is why I'm starting to worry that you could be Moon Moon rathet than a wolf. You look suspicious, but maybe too obviously suspicious? Like you're deliberately saying things like this to get yourself lynched in place of...

... who? Pitch looks- er, sounds like an Ordo. Shasta didn't make me suspicious yesterday. And our cleared innocent claimed Boro looked - dangit, sounded - utterly fine yesterday, and he's barely said anything since.

I don't know. Hopefully Boro, Sally, and Shasta show up in the next hour and a half.

hS

Which obviously revolves around me being the wolf--an assumption you came up with rather suddenly once I put pressure on you.

The fun thing is, I was just beginning to consider you and Huey as a wolf & cobbler team, not sure who was master who disciple.
No. Morsul by his own words dreamed innocent!Sally on N2, and equally by his own words 'didn't realize we were starting I got me days mixed up' (#85). If he didn't realize D1 was D1, he wouldn't have known to send in a dream the preceding Night. Nice try though.

(x-ed with Huey)

Whoa, slow down there sailor. A cobbler Huey thinking you're a wolf doesn't necessarily involve you being a wolf. However, if you insist...:Merisu:


That was something I wondered might have happened, in my post 158 at the beginning of toDay. Doesn't mean it actually did happen. Morsul on the admin thread (where you must tell the truth) simply said he had missed the voting deadline for the first time, what he says on the game thread may or may not be true.

All this aside I am conscious of the fact that only three of the remaining six survivors have been posting today so it is little wonder we are all getting a little snarly.
I need to go to bed soon and would really very much like to hear from Boro, Shasta and Sally before I do so.

I did. I pointed out earlier that I didn't know how she had gotten votes, because my Day 1 vote was a throw away based on absolutely nothing. I was thinking Nerwen was still around and going to vote, so was throwing the ball in her court to either vote for you or Lalaith, since she had mentioned red flags on both of you.

Alas she didn't vote at all. If I had any reason to think she was the Ranger, or that she wasn't going to vote I would have voted for Lalaith.

I'm home and famished. You kids play nicely while Sally makes herself some puppy chow. :Merisu:

By the way, I have a hopefully not wacky theory: Maybe Morsul dreamt of Huey as the cobbler? His post (which I'll link here once I find it again) really seemed like a seer hint, but obviously he hadn't found the second wolf, because he would have just flat out said so.

I'll catch up while I eat. Back in a few minutes.


EDIT: Clarifying that I haven't read anything since about noon. Make of that what you will.

Well, he could have been giving a signal of who he was going to dream of the next, which left wolf-Huey to go after the Morsul-seer who was now going to be unprotected at night and if wolf-Huey deduced Morsul was the seer.

Or the lone wolf is trying a frame job on Huey, to make it look like Morsul was going to dream Huey next.

OK, I've got to vote and go to bed rather soonish. It rather sucks that we three Europeans are left to slam this out between us, but pending Boro's reappearance and an explanation of what the Angband he thought he was doing yesterDay I'll probably vote Lalaith over Huey.

(post coinciding with an appearance of Americans)

I didn't see where she red-flagged me, but if she did, fair enough.

[QUOTE=satansaloser2005;710250]
By the way, I have a hopefully not wacky theory: Maybe Morsul dreamt of Huey as the cobbler?/QUOTE]
See above why I don't think that's possible.

Maaaaaaybe, but that doesn't strike me as Morsul behavior.


x'd with Pitch

Ahem. Sally, Boro, please read my post 174...

I'm caught up now. :o

At one minute before deadline?!

Are you proposing Sally as the wolf, or claiming it yourself?

hS

In fact, let's:

++Lalaith
For pushing Nerranger's lynch yesterDay, and grasping at straws toDay (Morsul dreaming Huey is just construed).

I won't be coming back before DL, so lynch wisely.

Aye. She had posted not too long before that, so I assumed she was around at the DL and would be voting to save herself.



No. Sally's not the wolf. Taking into account, her Day 1 vote for Runewolf, her really just positive and helpful posts, and pretty rock solid confirmation from the dead Seer, I'm putting her as a certain innocent and will more than likely be following however she votes today. Because while we can all be very wrong on things, I can say besides myself her judgement and voting is coming from a place of good intentions.

And with that being said on sally, she's probably the next one to die if we don't lynch the wolf today. My dear, help us all you can while you can, you're our only hope now.

I'm claiming, whoever the wolf is.. First Zil mentions your jumpiness, he dies. Then Morsul votes for you, he dies and he's the seer. So either the remaining wolf is framing you hardcore to make it look like YOU are the last wolf trying to knock off the seer before getting dreamed of...or you actually are the remaining wolf, and since your partner Rune was lynched Day 1, you had to get the seer before seer got you.

I second this and with even more urgency as I am literally falling asleep.

I have a reading of Morsul's posts open in another tab, but it's hurting my brain.

Are we absolutely sure Morsul didn't send in a dream on the opening Night of the game? (I'm asking Gal in particular, but I'm not really expecting an answer.)

Or maybe literally any wolf in history would kill a revealed Seer, regardless of whether they were under suspicion or not.

I find this argument and your last-second vote both suspicious, and would really appreciate an answer from Sally on whether she still thinks you're innocent. In the next 20 minutes or so, I will either vote Lalaith or Boromir - but I still don't know which.

hS

PS: Sally, if he did send in a Night One dream, then he lied when he said he mixed up the days.

:mad: No touching my prince! :mad:

:Merisu:

I might as well just post this. Misery loves company.
 

Blah. He does realize there are only two wolves though, which matters in the grand scheme.

He almost certainly didn't get a first Night dream, so at this point, he likely knows no more than the rest of us.

I don't entirely get the point of that last bit. We (and certainly Morsul) knew Dun wasn't the seer, so why make a point of this at all.

Also, notice he says Huey is suspicious but then goes off on a tangent about how the wolves might have done as well to have killed him. (Sigh.) In any case, he just echoes my (not even formed yet) suspicion of Huey and doesn't go into why.

Blah.

He's either reading too much into this or he's telling us something. Something about the language of his post seems different. It's the conspiracy theorist in me.

Again, talking about Huey. It's almost all he does. That said, there's really no other way to read his statement about me.... :rolleyes:

This is Morsul's only post of substance in which he doesn't mention Huey directly. I know there aren't that many posts to begin with, but....

Obviously the seer isn't going to say otherwise....

Blah, more or less.

And that's the end of Morsul's posts, talking again about Huey.


I mean, don't get me wrong here. I don't necessarily disagree that Morsul dreamt me; it's possible he didn't and just read me well, but his certainty of tone and choice of capitalization rather give it (and him) away.

That said, he talks about Huey in almost every post, and talks about everyone else basically not at all.


I need ice cream....

Could kill: Huey, Pitchwife, Lal

NO KILLING: Sally, Boro, Shasta (in memory of Nerwen)

The lists are in no real order.

Correct, which is why I'm claiming the deaths of Zil and Morsul make you look the worst of everyone here, so either you're innocent and the night kills are setting you up for an easy lynch target, or you are the wolf.

I want my cobbler theory to be correct, because it would explain everything....


ETA: For Gal, as it is apparently my 5,555th post!

https://i.imgflip.com/1b1xon.jpg

Believe me, I've been trying to square that with him being Seer since yesterDay evening. But he was, and he did, and it can't have been a dream (from my perspective this is absolutely certain, of course). So I don't know.

But I do know this:

If a known innocent who knows him says Boro is innocent, then I'm not voting for him. And that means:

++Lalaith

For suspicious voting habits, and dodgy logical leaps all Day.

(I'm not purely going on Sally's say-so re: Boro, either: the fact that he showed up with very patchy arguments right when Lalaith was getting most of the heat is more likely to make him cobbler to her wolf than the other way round. Since I see no reason to distrust Pitch or Shasta at the moment, that's my working theory.)

I hope to see you all toMorrow for a victory party.

hS, roosting upside-down in a tree and hoping fervently for the best

Follow me along a short rabbit trail. NOT YOU, MOON MOON!

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/...20160917181945

If Huey is Moon Moon (I SAID STAY), then to recycle my previous logic from discussions regarding Boro, we need to leave him alone.

So....I guess Pitch or Lal then? At least for today?

x'd with Huey

Victory party, you say? Lynching me now will almost certainly make it a victory party for the wolves, I'm afraid.
Anyway, I just can't stay awake any longer. Sally and other innocents, I am going to go with the suggestion of our dead Seer and vote for Huey. I think, for what it's worth, that given his jumpiness today, that pitch is probably also a baddie.
It is a pity, for the sake of the village, that I wasn't lynched in nerwens place yesterday as it would put us in a much stronger position today. But never mind. Let's do our best.
++Huey

Cross post with Sally
Sorry my dear. I wanted to follow your lead but you tarried too long. (Not to the extent of voting for myself but..)

No worries, darling. I don't even want to follow my lead right now. :p

Maybe I'll put some Bailey's in this ice cream....