Yes I agree that was a deliberate choice of words. Could be a wolf signaling to the cobbler too, though, maybe expecting someone to continue the banter and identify themselves that way? Or perhaps a very wily ordo trying to mislead the wolves but I think Occam's razor might have something to say about that theory. :D

Don't know how to feel about this from Kath. NW being in the Dead Thread is just as effective at causing confusion, and this seems designed to deflect attention from that - but presumably the other wolves would be on board for a self-sacrificing NW.

Hmm.

I don't really agree with this - using your powers with not much to go on is still better than not having them to use at all, IMO. You could always get lucky.

Nilp is too much fun to have around to lynch on Day 1. :p

I do agree that Hui's posting style seems different from the last game. Which makes me think better of him for now.

Formy seems very focused on possible wolf strategies. Maybe a wolf trying to mislead us? I feel like I may be grasping at straws a bit on this, but on Day 1, I don't have much else to go on.

Oh? What an interesting catch.

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

I do like this, I was operating under the same conclusion re: ideals.

Is "fish leather" a thing from past games?

Pitch - could be cobblerish indeed, not really getting wolfish - casting light cobbler-suspicion on Form, discourages votes for Nilp
Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience
Form - keeping an eye on him, but his explanations when pressed do tend to look more innocent
Nilp - asks to be lynched, which would make me think he was at the very least not gifted and not too risky a lynch, except, being Nilp, he'd kind of have to do this even if he was. Painted himself into a corner.

Fair enough. Also I see Shasta and Rikae already found another cobbler. :D (Also agreed, in retrospect, about your point about Form. Are we sure we don't have four cobblers and one wolf instead of four wolves and one cobbler? ;))

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?

Yes, and I would have loved Nog to wolfishly overdefend after being 'a-HA'd. But sadly other people answered for him, so by the time he replied I'd already said that was my hope.

Which nicely leads on to:

To which I say:

1/ Several of your quotes were me talking to Formendacil, and explaining my disagreement with 'Day One is useless'.

2/ When I don't say why I'm asking weird questions, people start calling me on asking weird questions. :) I tried to split the difference between pushing effectively, and not leaving it weird to sidetrack people.

Unless people are playing very emotionally (and I don't think they are) , the people with the most relevant buttons to push are the wolves. I say getting reactions out of them is worth the risk.

Lots of cross-posts and coming up to bedtime; will look over the recent stuff and probably have to vote next time I post.

hS

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.

If I were a wolf twice in a row (I think that has happened? I don't know, it all blurs together) I would make very sure to do exactly that.

Back from work, but on my phone and toddler-adjacent, so I might not (probably won't) be fine-tooth combing the more recent posts.

It's good to see Shasta appear: he had what seemed like a comparatively high number of mentions for a previously absent player--granted, Day 1 tends to be more "this person is normally like this" than later Days, but it's still good to see SOMETHING pre-vote.

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

Hm. I need to nap. Much as I love holding my vote -

++Huinesoron

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

Not sure I get this. I mean, yes, Nilp is a very easy target on D1 as he pretty much paints the target on himself, and if he's innocent he would be a safe vote pick for a wolf. But the rest of this argument is odd. So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler :D

Additionally, what I think Lommy was getting at was the tone of Nilp's comment about being a carnivore rather than the basic fact that Nilp is acting suicidal on D1 (which I agree would be no grounds at all to base a suspicion on). And that seemed valid enough to me for a D1 argument. Especially this early on, the best leads I get come from how people do what they do rather than the thing itself.

Okay, I had considerably busier day than I thought, but now caught up.

For the amount of posts, there is not that much content - which on the one hand is good because of easy read, on the other hand, it gives precious little information to go with. Apparently, we need a controversy like that with the pre-voting argument to start something at all. Speaking of which...

I think this is not such a bad idea also in terms of helping the Dead Thread figure out where to cast *their* votes, once that becomes relevant. (Even though they can retract, so that should not be such a big deal. Still... I can already imagine the chaos if everyone on the Living Thread waits for the last minute to vote, as is bound to happen, and the Dead massively tumbling over each other like in PJ's movie to get the right person they want to make the Medium.)

Otherwise: I see Hui has become the most inquisitive mind here. That is a marked difference from his performance in the previous game. Of course, he might have "learned his lesson" and adopted a bolder Wolf tactic than last time, but from the overall way he's doing it, I would rather think it a sign of innocence. On a related note...
I basically thought the same what Rikae said - unlike others, Form's conclusion did not seem to me like a conclusion of the debate. I don't think discussing "what the Wolves would do" is anything so problematic per se. But I was rather wondering at the overall framework of what Form was doing there: whether it was just a talk, or whether he was rehashing something that he and his packmates have been debating overnight. Innocents may not tend to go so deep into the subject by themselves.

Essentially I would second this. Since nobody seems to be doing it, however, that also makes me think that we either have a very careful Cobbler (as opposed to the previous game), or else it's Nilp. Which is kind of a dead end because, as it's been remarked before, Nilp would have Nilp'ed himself probably no matter what he was.

But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold. Well, this is Day 1 - let's see how things continue.

I think this whole discussion is somewhat pointless: if we think we have a Wolf, then we should lynch them, as on top of everything we have no way of verifying whether they are not only the NW, but whether they are a Wolf in the first place, until they are dead! So that should not be a question. It would be nice if one could put suspicious people "on ice" that way, but that is what ultimately wins Wolves the games.

I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Okay, back in a bit with some thoughts on everybody, because I realise this may pick up now...

EDIT: x-ed with a horrible bunch somewhere back on the previous page! (around Nilp's time remark) What's happening!!

Well, it really has been quite uneventful Day. Things to take hold on to seem to be few and far between.

Form and Nilp toy with their roles both in their own ways. But neither "I grow hair and eat children for breakfast" or self-voting (especially in case of Nilp) doesn't seem to say that much to any direction.

hS I commented on already about his over-eagerness to show himself to be a good guy. Also the over touchy-feely reaction to a few remarks by Kath and Lottie does look a bit strange. And I do agree with Rikae, that playing differently than when a wolf in the last game hardly is an argument (rather it should be the default setting).

Pitch's leather boots do add on to Nilp's usage of the boot-icon, but that also feels a bit weak as a cause for a vote to say the least.

There's really very little to go on. But we still have one hour to go and maybe the stakes will start rising?


EDIT: X'd with a lot

Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

No, but it's used for making fine things like ladies' gloves and handbags. Too thin and soft for boots, really, although I guess it might do for pumps.[/worldbuilding]


I meant toDay - toMorrow is quite another thing. Also, if he makes himself suspicious by anything else than his usual suicidal behaviour (such as the use of boots that Rikae picked up), that's fair game.

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

I have a question. Is there any way the Wolves can just kill the NW on a Night of their choosing? Instead of killing a villager, can they kill their own? That would give them control over when the NW enters the Dead Thread.

X'ed with a lot

I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

I think Greenie has a point in intrepreting Pitchwife's comments on Nilp.

Then again, I don't understand this at all.
Now how are the two parts of the argument related? That if we do have a quiet Cobbler, then (and only then?) it is possible the WW's are also less bold? But if the Cobbler would be loud again, then the WW's would also be loud for certain?

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

What if we all abstain and have a nice picnic and a bonfire? Mac and I have S'mores fixings we're happy to share! :)

Oh yeah ... werewolves.

Isn't that true of about every D1 in WW history ever? And if we were all to follow your 'strategy', where would that leave us toMorrow?

It's too late for a no vote toDay, anyway. Votes have been cast. Even if everyone else in the village abstains, we would still have 1 Nilp and 1 Huin, and one of them would die.

Yes.

But paraphrasing Lottie: Washing your hands from that procedure is actually both helping the wolves to decide who is lynched (as there is going to be a lynch anyway) and denying everyone else your own input to be analyzed.

And that would be me. :D

Okay. I'm going to put aside for now the people I mostly think look dodgy for their comments on me (mostly Kath and Nog, I think) ; I'm clearly very easy to misunderstand, so I'd need more to go on there. (Kath's chat with Nilp all looks very small from this distant time.) I'm also going to hold off on Nilp until I can get more of a feel for him.

Formendacil still looks innocentish. Rikae... I think I might just like their post style, but it looks pretty innocent to me. Lottie I at least don't get wolf vibes off.

Sally, well, there's not much to say yet. Macalaure's one post (that I can see) is low on content for being so far into the day (#75), so could be dodgy. Shasta has posted a lot, on a lot of subjects; I feel like they're contributing rather than trying to muddy things, but it is just a feel.

Blind Guardian has made... one post? All I remember is it felt like a newer player, and I'm out of time to hunt (can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?). Brinn hasn't posted much, but hasn't been using that to focus on just one topic (I had in my head that they were just talking about cobblers, so I looked back). Should have done this alphabetically... Legate looks okay, Greenie I remember something twigged early on but I don't know what.

Um, who have I missed? Lommy! I... can't remember what Lommy has said, but I don't remember flagging anything. And I think that only leaves Pitch and 'fish leather'.

Which seems like a really weird leap to make, and I don't see anyone reassuring Lommy that yes, 'fish leather' is a known WW concept. So he looks likely to be doing something Cobbler related. But would an actual cobbler just come out and say it?

Okay, checking cross-posts: so fish leather is a thing, Shasta has voted for me, Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent, and
Lommy and Lottie both strongly disagree with his suggestion he might unvote. But I still stand by my read from earlier.

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

For my earlier suspicions, for my known dodgy people-reading abilities, and most especially for not simply talking about unvoting in frustration, but as a plan, I vote:

++Formendacil

(And now to bed/and now to bed!)

hS

Go to the Mirth page, click the number of posts of this thread, then click [EDIT]the number of posts beside[/EDIT] the name of the person.

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 :p)?

What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.


edit: xed with #150 and onwards

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.

Also, everyone is free to make their choices but I agree that abstaining isn't helpful unless you're a wolf. However miserable the odds (and I don't actually think 1/4 is miserable), if we had all decided to abstain the odds would be even worse toMorrow.

Not even trying to understand about fish leather at this point.

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?


:smokin:

++Formendacil for wanting to TALK to the Wolves and wanting us to not vote.

I hope I'm doing this right. My phone is dying. I'll see you guys toMorrow.

X'ed with people and also the site didn't load. Fixing stuff.

Nog, I had the same first reaction to Hui's vote, but you missed the part in the middle:

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along. :confused:


edit: xed with BG

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)

No vote: sally