Also - 20 minutes to DL, right? Where is everybody?

Not any more, sorry. They come with an expiration date, you know.

Or, from my point of view, we could hope you're a wolf, Greenie.

Well! What to do?

Kath-->Greenie (1)
Azura-->Nerwen (1)

Anyway– I regret having to do this, but unless Azura is one most deeply-submerged little subs ever, that *was* an innocent on innocent vote.

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

Well now that Azura's voted. Either there is a wolf amongst Kath or Greenie. Or a wolf amongst Azura and Nerwen.

Otherwise, this game would be over, or the wolves are tormenting us? Or some of you are waiting around for your Laeko packmate just to be sure?

Well horror movies cause me to go insane...and if I were in a horror movie with werewolves, I don't even want to know how far my sanity would fall.

I know. There's really nothing to say to that.

That aside, is there any chance of getting a third candidate lynched? I mean, other than by wolves?
(I'd hazard a guess at no.)

Another question: where are the wolves, why aren't they out and gloating yet?


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil, Nerwen, and Boro

Oh, for.....:rolleyes:

x/d with Boro and Greenie

I'd be inclined to believe that. I also know I'm not wolf, and know you can't know that. We're screwed, aren't we?

It doesn't look likely at this point.

Maybe Laeko is indeed one, and isn't here?

x/d with Greenie

Won't choose between the ranger and myself.

++Inzil

Is this torment to make up for all the crazy improbabilities that happened Day 1?

Inzil...cause to doubt Nerwen's claim?

Yeah, playing roleplaying games 'til eleven can lead to me not being around, sorry everyone.

I'll be honest, to me Zil and Nerwen look the guiltiest, Zil for, as Boromir pointed out, being extremely unconfrontational and Nerwen for being so defensive.

I guess creating a tie had much more adverse implications than I'd expected, though I do admit my "who will break" comment was pretty stupid. I confess, my crime lies in not wanting to be the newbie who falsely decided someone's fate, particularly given that Galadriel had been putting on a similar defensive air as Nerwen had, and turned out to be one of our gifteds of all things.

And because of that, my vote tonight is

++Zil

Oh no oh no oh no. I'm pretty certain everyone is a wolf. :rolleyes:

I'll *scream* if it turns out two-thirds of the packs were the bloody n00bs!

Ok...let' hope.

++Inziladun

Nah. She's probably telling the truth.

++Greenie

Time.

---------

With three votes, Inzil the Wolf is lynched. Congratulations, village. You live to see another day.

Night begins.

Nerwen
Greenie
Boro
Kath
Laeko_Rundalis
Azura

Sorry - the site was down for whatever reason.

The wolves attacked, but the person they attacked was protected by the Ranger.

It is now Day (insert number here).

Ha!:smokin:

It's Day 5, by the way.

Can the ranger self-protect?

*shakes head*
Not tellin'.

Shasta didn't state publicly how any of the gifted-roles worked earlier, so I don't expect he will now.

Still no-one around?

I'm bored.

So why did you want to know, anyway, Greenie? Isn't it best to keep the evil side guessing? (Best for the village, at any rate.)

But you're not keeping the wolves guessing. They either attacked you or someone else, they know it and you know it. Any extra information you have to give us will only help us now. Today. The only ones you're keeping guessing are the villagers, because the wolves know who they attacked, and you know who you stopped from being killed.

That's more or less what I was thinking. The wolves already know whether they attacked you or somebody else.

I'm off to take another look at yesterDay's mess of a voting, I think.

Something like this..

Kath - Greenie
Azura - Nerwen
Greenie - Inzil
Laeko - Inzil
Boro - Inzil
Inzil - Greenie

Quite frankly, if Boro and/or Laeko are wolves, they are sporty to a fault. Why kill a fellow instead of winning a game? But if neither of the two is a wolf, that would mean Kath and Azura are. I can say nothing at all about Azura, really, not based on two posts. Kath has looked pretty innocent to me, though I begun to have doubts yesterDay. Should probably have a look at her relationship with Inzil, not sure if I have the time right now but at least I can start.

The way it boils down for me is 2 wolves amongst:

Greenie
Kath
Laeko
Azura

Based on the voting yesterday, it would appear a wolf either between Greenie and Kath. And a wolf either between Laeko and Azura. Sorry, Greenie, not going to take your word that you're innocent. I need to work out all the possible combinations first, but based on how voting was a bit hectic towards the end. It wouldn't surprise me if 2 wolves were up for lynch yesterday (Greenie and Inzil).

Although, if the innocents split their votes on 2 wolves, then I would think the pack would have enough amongst themselves to vote an innocent. Unless if Greenie and Inzil's 3rd mate was Azura, who votes Nerwen.

I feel like I'm not making any sense right now. But based on the numbers, there seems no way Kath's vote for Greenie could be innocent on innocent. And that Azura's vote for Nerwen also could not be innocent on innocent.

I'm going to try to work out all the scenarios of the voting yesterday in my head, so if the running train of thought gets all jumbled up....sorry.

(I) = innocent. (W) = wolf. (R) = Ranger.

Scenario 1.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (I)

Now if this was the case, then the 3 remaining wolves could have piled on to vote Greenie and win. In this scenario then, Inzil, Laeko, and Azura would be the pack. And maybe the reason Inzil didn't jump on to Kath's vote, because he didn't know if either Azura or Laeko would come in to vote. Then...

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

This could have been a newbie wolf mistake, instead of voting for the already voted innocent. But it's making scenario 1 look highly unlikely. Then Nerwen reveals to be the Ranger.

Greenie (I) ---> Inzil (W). Based on she know's she's innocent and she's not going to vote the Ranger so she went with her other possibility.

Laeko (W) ---> Inzil (W).

And this is really what makes Scenario 1 not make any sense. Because if Laeko would have added on to vote Greenie, Inziladun did too. And it would make my vote for Inziladun irrelevant. But Laeko voted for Inziladun, so a wolf on wolf vote doesn't make any sense. Scenario 1 can't make sense, and so Kath voting for Greenie was not an innocent-on-innocent.

Scenario 2.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (W)

Ok. So a wolf already has a vote and so now the pack has to try to get an innocent on innocent.

The next vote is Azura's for Nerwen. Nerwen then reveals to be the Ranger. If Azura's innocent, it would make the pack. Inziladun, Greenie and Laeko. And whether Nerwen revealed or not, there would have been enough votes to lynch her. So this pack formation can't make sense because Greenie winds up voting for Inziladun.

If Azura's a wolf, however, then the Inziladun, Greenie, Azura pack makes more sense then the previous. Perhaps in night planning it was decided Nerwen would be the primary innocent target, and it backfired that she turned out to be the ranger?

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

Nerwen reveals to be the ranger. Wolf-Greenie already having a vote. Knows she can't vote for Nerwen, because Nerwen, Laeko, and I will make votes to save the ranger thus getting Wolf-Greenie lynched.

Although if Greenie were a wolf here. She's not going to vote for herself, she can't vote for Nerwen without being exposed as sealing her own lynch. So in order to save cover, and sort of take the motto of "let's fight another day," she makes a wolf-on-wolf vote for Inzil. The confusing part here though, is if Greenie, Azura and Inzil were the pack, why would Greenie vote Inzil knowing I have been suspicious of him, and Laeko too? Why not vote the other mate, Azura? Or give a vote to another innocent and hope?

If Greenie's a wolf here, it's a confusing vote choice. But the Inzil, Greenie, Azura pack, in this scenario is more plausible than Scenario 1 (Inzil, Laeko, Azura).

Scenario 3.

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (I)

My brain hurts and I need foods. I can't unravel how likely the a Inzil, Kath, and Azura/Laeko pack in this group looks compared to the scenario 2 pack (Inzil, Greenie, Azura) right now. I just wanted to mention it, before I have to leave, that I'll be heading to this scenario next.

And for the sake of it, Scenario 4 would be...

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (W).

which would make absolutely no sense given the circumstances of the day, so that one is easy enough to figure out.

KATH
(With emphasis on her relationship with Inzil, and a few other points that stood out to me. Not a complete analysis of all her posts.)

On Day 1, Kath makes a list. (She also votes Sally in the same post.)
In the early parts of Day 2, Kath further explains her Sally vote, which is fair enough considering how much suspicion that vote roused. She then moves on to speculate EW's death:
The following passage is potentially interesting in relation to my theory of Kath being a wolf with Azura (or Laeko, for that matter):
Would a wolf with a fellow under threat of modfire say this? It wouldn't make much of a difference, I suppose, might even serve to make her look good. Then again, would a wolf with an inactive fellow be unaware of the modfire rules? (But then, if Shasta never said anything about them it might be that the wolves really were unaware of the modfire rules..) I'm just not sure. Kath abandons this plan soon enough, though.

From her list of people:
Aaaand vote post:
Wolf-on-wolf? In itself, it's hard to say this or that. This one becomes more interesting on moving to Day 3. Her comment on Inzil reads as follows:
She says nothing about whether she finds him suspicious or not, which I find rather curious considering that she voted him the Day before. Inzil has also completely vanished from her list of possible lynchees:
Day 4, then.
Thinks Inzil made a good catch (well, in all fairness, he did), but in the same breath says she doesn't like his cautious style of phrasing it. This looks, to me, most like wolf-on-wolf interaction between Kath and Inzil. In pointing out he made a good point, she strengthens an impression of Zil as a sharp and useful player, while in saying she doesn't like his style she avoids looking too much like his buddy.

Vote post reads as follows:
Would be convenient for a wolf to place a fellow as another lynch choice but vote for someone else. Makes her look good on the offchance the said fellow gets lynched at some point, but at the same time does not endanger him on a crucial Day. Her previous posts don't bring forth Inzil as a lynch candidate, she only brings up the idea in the same post where she already votes another player.

Conclusion about Kath? If she's a wolf, she's playing a careful game, there's nothing I could point at and call ”wolf!” She's been suspecting Inzil somewhat: voting him on Day 2, not really mentioning him Day 3, and bringing him up as a lynch candidate on Day 4. Not too much for wolf-on-wolf, in my mind.

Just based on yesterDay's votes, I'd be leaning on thinking Kath a wolf.

To sum up -

If Boro is a wolf, he's flipping mad.
If Nerwen is a wolf, the real ranger is mad.
If both Laeko and Azura are wolves, Shasta is mad.

Regardless of the fact that werewolf often is a little mad, any of those scenarios look a bit too much so. Therefore -

++Kath

Good night!

Very sorry. Stupidly busy day. No internet. Posting this at parents house before running back to my own to sleep. Have checked mod post but haven't read the thread. Going with what I did yesterDay as a result as feel no vote is less use than at least a previously reasoned vote so thoughts/suspicions etc currently still level with my last post yesterDay.

++GREENIE

I have a reason. Just waiting to see a few more people's reactions.

Anyway, your guess at the pack is the same as mine. Actually, I thought the same yesterDay, and to, quote Greenie, "nothing has happened to change my mind".
The newbies do throw things out a bit, though, especially Azura,– it's always possible we're dealing with a wolf-cub who has had neither time nor interest even to graps what's going on. However, if Greenie is a wolf, I think Laeko would make the most sense as her fellow– as well as having a history of supporting Inzilawolf.

EDIT:X'd with Boro.

But if Laeko was the 3rd wolf, even after you revealed it wouldn't matter, Greenie, Inzil, and Laeko could have all voted for you and won. Unless...Greenie was unsure Laeko would be back to vote, because I believe Laeko's one post with vote came after Greenie's vote.

Laeko's post came seven minutes after Greenie's, and both were in the last ten minutes. See, this is what throws the calculations out– if one of the n00bs is a wolf– and really, I don't see what else makes sense– then the others might have been in doubt whether he/she would show up at all.

That in itself would point to Azura more than Laeko, but not conclusively. Laeko has just sounded a fair bit more calculatingly wolfy to me– whereas Azura just seems uninterested and confused. Could be a confused *wolf*, though. In fact, come to think of it, you may be right. I mean, there was a fashion a while back for giving newbie wolves minimal guidance, so it wouldn't look like they were being coached.

These next few hours are going to be the death of me, because I keep going back and forth. Laeko was looking suspect before we knew about Inzil's role, and I agree would look more like the calculative wolf.

But when Azura has posted...with just the vote and like 2 sentences. Both times he's tried to play the newbie card. The general "don't hate me, I'm still a newbie" feelings. Which quite frankly, comes off as very wolvy to me.

So we have one first-timer who looks more coached up, and thus suspicious. And the other, who is looking for sympathy "I'm only a newbie," and therefor suspicious. Ugh. :rolleyes:

I've begun suspecting Azura for the past few days, for the one big reason that he never posts anything but votes. Now, on the one hand, it's very possible that this guy just wants to put the least amount of work in. However, my logic goes as thus: "if he were innocent, he wouldn't fear giving anything away, and he'd be more likely to actually say more than just a vote. However, were he a wolf, it would actually make sense for him to say as little as possible in an attempt to avoid giving himself away."

What I don't like in this case is knowing that, unless someone else agrees with me, voting for Azura would be a waste of a vote at this point.

EDIT: I must have spaced off Boro's post, 'cause now I see him making a similar point.

P.S. A "flaw," as it were, in a certain logical string I'm seeing: if I were a calculating/coached wolf, would I really have made my stupid tie-maker back when I voted Nerwen?

Oh, flub it all, I see no one else wants to cast the first vote in that direction, either, so I'm going to do it and hope the wolves don't come for me next.

++Azura

Why not? Even calculating wolves make mistakes. And dammit, why are you acting like Azura's the only option? We know there's two wolves, and I say there's more against Greenie than anyone else.