As much as we are used to certainties upon death.
I don't see how people want to write off such and such person as certainly this role/alignment - so quickly.

Yes, there could be a higher likelihood of person A being innocent because of reason(s) xyz. Yet you can't say it is for certain.

Zil - would those regrets have anything to do with it being a fiery topic toDay?


Is there something going on between Nog and Mac? Yes. What is it? Remains to be seen.

Boro is added to the mix as well.


X'd with Boro x2 and Nerwen.

I said I had no regrets about not going along with the Mira lynch, despite passionate defenses of it by Boro and, to a lesser extent, Rikae..

The last time I saw an argument like the one that took place yesterday, there were innocent and guilty ones on both sides - even though I was rather forcibly saying no innocent can advocate wasting a lynch by voting a person who's to be modfired. So I'm hesitant to judge which party is more innocent (even though I know which party was right ;)).

I wonder if I should look at the Mira argument or if it's just waste of time. *shrugs*


edit: xed with Zil

The point is that in this game, if you wanted to be conservative then the sensible thing to have done since Mira was going anyway would have been to double killed someone and got a concrete piece of information which we so desperately needed. All that happened is we lost a kill chance - not a raincheck because we can't take it later.

I be wonderin' –were there too much risk in killin' another on us? These swabs be main careful 'bout leavin' a trail... belike there's trails to be left, if ye get me drift.

Aye, happen there's bad 'uns on both sides.

But 'tis this way: them dogs o' mutineers would liker support the lynch o' Dancin' Mira if one o' they was set to walk the plank else. Arr, 'tis main hard that there be no easy way o' finding out what Annu or Shasty be. Makes a power o' difference.

I'll tell ye what us will find along o' them as lynched Mira –leastways very like– an' that's co-conspies. They be as much adrift as we, an' main afeard o' lynchin' one o' they allies.

I reckon I mark the voyage yer a'speakin' of, an' 'twere a co-conspirator as put for'ard the plan o' lynchin' som'un as were leavin' anyhow in th' first place.

No matter who we lynch we won't get any concrete information, unless we kill the person again. That's the only way we can get some sort of concrete information, as well being sure the mutineers' kills aren't mutineers. However, that isn't too helpful seeing as ghosts can't vote.

And seeing as supposedly our spy is dead...well we're pretty screwed unless the hunter gets a kill, or the Ranger saves someone. All we can do is really take some blind shots in the dark based on feeling, or people's behaviours.

A good question, but it would take a lot of rereading to prove or disprove it... but if someone is willing to do that, why not.

Okay, Nerwie, you made me change me mind - I'll go to reread some of yesterDay (even though the pirate talk kind o' gives me headache yarr).

There's not much to say about yesterDay's voting, except that Gwath seems suspiciously much like going with the flow and supporting the wrong ;) decision, there's something very fishy in his manner.

Boromir, did you read what I said or are you the ship's parrot?

You could have a point there.

Like many have noted, the 'off-chance' looks to be what we're mainly dealing with in this game without knowing the identities of the dead.

I am not fluent in pirate but I can't see there is much risk to the aggressors with the seer dead. They can kill anyone they like at night unless the protector gets lucky and can vote for who they like during the day knowing that unless we double kill the identity of the lynchee will not be revealed to incriminate them.

A quick little list, don't really like that I'm lacking in suspects.


Sally - not too too much from her, she makes me uneasy like always, but not enough to really vote for her

Boromir - not big on his choice to lynch Mira, but it's not enough to really find him suspicious, he makes a good case and obviously thinks it will help the crew in the long run, so I won't hold our difference of opinion against him.

Rikae - Kinda the same as Boro, and yesterDay I mentioned not liking her tone but after re-reading it I don't really see it as being the way I thought. I don't know, I'm on the fence here.

Lommy - Fine.

Inziladun - Fine with him so far, I've tended to agree with him.

Shasta - hmmmm, well he's defensive, but that's not new. So I don't really know about him.

Annu- got nothing, I must have missed something cause I don't know why everyone finds him so suspicious, I'll have to go back and find it I guess

Mac - I've been agreeing with him aswell, with the whole Mira thing. I was good with him before that anyway though.

Nerwen - because of Greenie's reveal I'm gonna go ahead and think innocent

Kath - Good with her.

Gwath - Haven't liked either of his votes. So I'm still suspicious of him.

Nogrod - Good with him.

Izzy - Makes sense, don't really have too much on her.

Mith - Fine.

Eönwe - I remember yesterDay he seemed quick to not trust Greenie and Nerwen, I voted him for that. I'm gonna go back and re-read his stuff later today.

Well, those are just my quick thoughts for now. I do think that atleast one person who voted Mira yesterDay has to be bad, even though there is a tad of logic behind it I don't think it's something that only innocents would agree too. On the other hand if she was being modfired anyway and is innocent (hypothetically) a baddie may have pushed to lynch someone else in order to get 2 people out of the way at once. So it's a tough situation really.

So I'll be back yet again in another few hours with more specifics on certain people. Just checking in here and there to try and keep up so that I don't have pages upon pages to read all at once tonight.

Snifflin' Mac, you're still wrong. We don't know which of those scenarios we're in, since the ranger or hunter might or might not influence it, but even gaining an extra night phase would help us. Games have been decided in the night phase before. A 50/50 chance on a lynch or ranger/hunter pick on Day//Night x is still better than a shot in the dark on Day 2.

I agree with you, though, that the baddies are probably not among those who are being scrutinized right now. I would like a closer look at the following:

Kath
Lommy
Wilwa
Gwath
Izzy
Sally

I'm betting that group is disproportionately skewed toward evil.

Wow, being out of commission for a few days really throws you behind. I will read from where I left off, and see if I have anything to contribute.

I'm here and reading the thread... currently on page 6.
First of all, I never said you were either. All I said (or meant to say) was that I didn't think that a wolf would want to draw that much attention to themselves. Having read my post, I can see why it might have sounded otherwise. Sorry about that.

And also, how about a theory:

It could be that Rikae and Shasta are wolves. Being obvious usually makes players seem less suspicious, so maybe this little "kerfuffle" was just to make them seem "too obvious" to be wolves together. It also serves to distance themselves for each other. It would be a risky plan, but both Rikae and Shasta are experienced players, and from the times I've played with them I've seen them get into similar situations (especially with [B]Shasta[/B- which is sad, as he often gets killed early), so it wouldn't be too out of the ordinary.


edit: And I didn't x-post, which shows how lonely this thread is at this time. :(

Well I read it...but I had just misread it. When I read Mira and 'double-kill' in the same sentence, I thought you meant Mira was going plus if we decided to lynch someone else, and by lynching someone else we would get concrete information. I didn't read it as 'double-kill' being lynching someone and then killing that same person.

Lommy, there is no right or wrong...what have I told you about choices in the States? It's Morgoth or Sauron, it doesn't matter who is less evil, you're screwed either way. :p We'd still have to spend a day on killing someone again just to get information, and that information may turn out totally useless anyway, so no matter what we decided to do we were screwed. Sorry to sound so bleak, just stating the truth.

Rikae feel free to call me intense, aggressive, or whatever, because that is like my tone. Although, currently that is mostly due to allergies, a massive headache, and finding out I am out of coffee grounds. My tone is really the only weapon I feel I have left.

++Nogrod

Still based on Day 1 uneasiness and some other things...like his paranoia in suspecting everyone who mentions that he himself is suspicious. Plus, he is managing to create theories as to why only mutineers would want him lynch, and describing the scenarios to strike up pity. Like here, being a good example:
In general he seems pretty sure about what the mutineers are doing...like again with the Eomer kill...something that was quickly supported by Mac.

Oh and that vote probably won't be retracted.

Plus, I still feel good about Inziladun, Wilwa, Rikae, and Nerwen.

I'm flip-flopping on Mith, and thinking she's better.

Lommy, Gwath, and Mac I'm watching. And of course, you can see how I feel about Nogrod.

Sorry but I must lump everyone I haven't mentioned as 'unsure,' I have to run...one of my old teachers I had for 4 years is getting married tomorrow, and I have absolutely nothing good to wear.

Her?

He did try to clear that up.

Oh headaches! I wish I had boarded a whole another ship... I've been reading and re-reading and nothing makes sense anymore! How on earth do you guys and gals go on with no sure knowledge of anything that has happened so far?? :confused: May be this is too big of a bite for me to swallow...

So what can I say (without rousing another wave of suspicions against me)? Not much I guess. But some points seem valid enough to say out loud:

About Boro: he's awfully loud and making such a fuss about everything that I rather deem him a co-conspie... I didn't like his "sacrificing" himself somewhere during day2, when hoping to be voted by someone (Mith?) (perhaps it was a bad joke - and perhaps not) and his voting during day1 was rather queer too. But I think he's making too much noise to be a wolf? Wish I had been in the same crew with him before to know how his mind works...

And what about Nog then? His vote for me early today tells tales. But especially as he seems to have had suspicions about me since day1! Giving me the benefit of a doubt as I'm a newbie (day1), not wanting to vote me when there are some other (and more experienced or loud?) suspects (day2) and then attacking me without further ado (day3). Guess my newbie status won't save me anymore... :rolleyes:

Mac the mathematician still gives me gray hairs but I've no real reason thinking him foul. Maybe its just his interaction with my main suspects? Wish I had something other to offer than gut instinct!

Nerwen is ok, so far as we don't take her as an absolutely certain innocent. Same goes with Eomer and Greenie - most likely not baddies.

I still can't get rid off my suspicions about Shasta but will delay any action against him for now. His little skirmish with Rikae shouldn't perhaps weigh so much in my scales but that's the most tangible thing I've found thus far. Though things have calmed down since.

Lommy doesn't say much about anyone or anything but seems quite certain about the reasons why Eomer was killed by the aggressors. Inside knowledge perhaps? Doubts Nog is a co-consp but gives no reasons. So co-conspirator protecting a wolf or the other way round? Or plain innocent giving us good counsel??

Wish I had the time to make a coherent and complete list but alas! I should be packing my things and going to bed for tomorrow will be one hectic day to say the least...

well Inearly voted you for being dim but fish-slapping may be more appropriate .. :rolleyes:

With Nogrod... I know this sounds self obsessed but I am afterall the only one I know about... It bugs me that he bangs on about me giving suspicious vibes (practically before I even posted!), and consistently lists me as suspicious - without actually putting his vote where his mouth is or providing evidence for his suspicions then accuses me of being over defensive and retaliatory, when I challenged him on it. Now bad vibes is such an un-Nogrod like reason that I have to find it suspicious. Now I know I was quiet but there has been so little going on when I have been around - even today when I have been here for nearly five hours there has been very little interreaction - and I find piratespeak difficult. But I can understand the quietness... the ordos have nothing to go on. :(

Hi Annu, Boromir often tries to stir things up to provoke a reaction if he is an ordo - has been lynched early often for this, however he is far too good as a villain to take it as read....

Huh?

Oh yeah, and:

++Sally

For generally bad vibes and sleeping under reindeer.

I know. That's why I said that (Lommy's post came after Annu's- but maybe she x-posted).

Oh no not more bad vibes... ;)

And why do peopel show up just when I really can't take any more?

Banging the same drum
 

++Nogrod

Vodka is a barbarous drink...

Mith, how come you're voting for Nogrod if he's been saying the same things as Mac, whom you claim to agree with?

++Annu

I still think Rikae's bad, but there's a vote for Annu (whom I also think is bad) already and it's likely I won't be back today; Shark Tooth has got a mild case o' scurvy! (OOC: Food poisoning. :()

Alright, most likely the last time I can make it on so I'll be voting now. The only one I really feel suspicious of is Gwath, for his vote Day 1 and also for his vote yesterDay, not only was it for Mira (when he was actually suspicious of Annu) but it also seemed like he did it just to kinda go with the crowd and not attract attention. I'm not suspicious of any one else really so this is an easy choice of me.

++Gwathagor

So that'll probably be all from me toDay. See you all tomorrow.

It be a quiet day... anyway:

-Legless Sally Dawkins - Quiet and not giving away much. She seems innocent however (usually she posts more as a wolf).
-Puffy Shirt Rikae - Seems generally innocent to me, unless the whole Rikae-Shasta thing was a[n anti-]cover. She generally seems to speak sense, even though I don't agree with her about the Mira lynching.
-Pirate Lommy the Infected - To be honest I have no idea.
-Gangrenous Inziladun Jones - He speaks wisely, but also very carefully.
-Pirate Boromir the Malformed - Though I disagree with him about the Mira lynching, I can see where he's coming from and it makes sense.
-Stutterin’ Wilwa Scab - She be votin' fer me without a good reason, but she always findsme suspicious for no reason.
-Shark Tooth Shasta - Seems like he could be genuine, and just an ordinary innocent. There is my conspiracy theory, but I haven't got much evidence tto back it up so I'll leave it for now.
-High-Pitched Annu - I don't see why others find him suspicious.
-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow - A lot o' banter at the beginning, yet he also posts some other helpful posts, and others that show what he thinks. I also like his stance on the Mira lynch.
-Almost-Blind Nerwen - Until proven otherwise, I'm trusting Greenie, so for now I'm putting her under innocent.
-Poop Deck Kath - Another one of 'em quiet ones. She needs to post more.
-Cowerin' Gwath Slasher - Hasn't said much of substance at all. I don't like it. He is hibernating under Rudolph.
-Pirate Nogrod the Fashionably Late - I like his view on the Mira lynching, but he has been unusually reserved this game, and hasn't been attacking the quiet ones as he usually does, which makes me suspicious.
-Ham-Hands Izzy - Hasn't posted enough for me to get an idea.
-Short Ruth Mithril - If an aggressor then very cunning. Seems quite sleek and not sticking out yet not suspicious either. I like her thoughts today on the lynching yesterday and what we could have done. Could be either.

Hmm... I can't think of much more to say- we have much less to go on than normal.

edit: x-ed wi' Wilwa, who be stealin' me vote.

And so, I'm sadly goin' t'vote for me last fellow monke'. Shame that:

++Gwathagor

He's been going with the flow a lot, and not made many points of his own. He is maintaining a low profile even with the number of posts he has, and though he talks a lot, he seems to not say much of substance. I shall have to fill up the powder on my own.

Ah yes. I forgot the words lack of.

I will rephrase it.

Would you be vocally not-regretting your choice, if the topic had not become a fiery issue toDay?


Sally -> Shasta
Nog -> Annu
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Sally
Mith -> Nog (2)
Shasta -> Annu (2)
Wilwa -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Gwath (2)

Gwath, Annu, Nog 2. Sally, Shasta 1.


I hope I'm not the only one going... o.O @ the votes.

Zil, Eönwë - as for the Annunfuiniel issue, I kind of got confused/forgetful/whatever because he's really a she (unless someone impersonates her on Facebook ;)) but is just to be called a he in this game because of the masculine role....

This comment cries a wolf to me, but as it's a newbie I'm a bit hesitant to judge... nevertheless I'm watching Annu now.

Well I'd say it's pretty normal - no one wants to lynch newbies on Day1 but you have to stop being so nice at some point so that newbie wolves wouldn't win by default. ;)

Well I can't quite back it up rationally, it's more like a gut-feeling. But it's maybe that he doesn't seem particularily innocent but the kill choices don't look too characteristic of him either... I don't know.

I'm getting more and more suspicious of Rikae. Don't exactly know why. That Sally-vote looks a tad too easy. I have to vote soon and I will probably vote her or Gwath or Sally (yes I know I just said Rikae's Sally-vote looks too easy). I'm most inclined to vote Rikae but I won't vote her if there's to be no support, I think I don't want Nogrod dead just yet, nor Annu.

Fine, speak proper English, see if I care....
 

Arr. 'Tis a shame, lad. I were down wi' th' scurvy a for'night ago. Leastways, I reckon 'twas scurvy. Me lips was bleedin', anyhow.

Now who to vote?

Hmmn. I be thinkin' Rikae might be a bad 'un... but then Shasty don't like her, and I be none too easy wi' he, neither.

Likewise, yon striker Gwathagor be lookin' a bit sus'pic-u-ous. But Eön ha' voted him, and I reckon he be a sneaky 'un heself.

An' 'twould be a famous joke if Nogrod an' Snifflin' Mac was in't t'gether. Stranger things ha' happened at sea.

EDIT:X'd wi' the quartermaster.

Nerwen, why discount the possibility of wolf-on-wolf so quickly?

I think I'll vote Rikae or Gwath.

I be needin' to get some shut-eye now.

++Rikae.

EDIT:X'd wi' th' infected.

Nay, I were doin' no sich thing.

Shiver me timbers! Food poisoning can be rather unpleasant. Hope you feel better soon.
I have some deep reservations about Rikae myself. The previous Day she first brought the case against Shasta that seemed too overblown. She then climbed on the Mira band wagon, and toDay has voted Sally for what she admits is nothing more then 'bad vibes'.

I was uneasy about the way he piled on Shasta.


I was simply responding to Boro, who seemed to be insinuating that anyone who didn't see his logic in voting Mira was utterly clueless.
If you want to read more into it than that , it's your affair.
I believe at this point my choice will likely be Annu (again) or Rikae.

Boro is unreadable at this point. I still don't buy the push for Mira when there were more constructive uses of our votes, but he seems to have defended himself well. Still could be evil, but I'm not willing to go for him now.

Nogrod makes sense to me. He appears to raise the hackles of those who know him well, but then again they could be the baddies for all I know.

Wilwa I'm on the fence about. Her votes don't seem all that well explained, and she hasn't been around all that much.

Izzy. Just like last game. That time I knew she was innocent, and she gives the same vibe here. Which means nothing, of course.

Ëonwë is a tough one. Could be anything.

Gwath: as I said, I didn't really care for the Mira thing much. Otherwise, I haven't seen much of him.

Shasta I'm pretty well convinced is innocent. If evil, he's been awfully brazen and careless.

Mac doesn't ring any bells. Seems sensible.

Mith is another one who feels innocent.

Sally seems a bit flippant in general. I'm not sure how to take her.

Lommy is utterly grey. Hasn't posted much, but seems to make sense when she does.

Nerwen. I know from experience how devious a Nerwolf can be. The only guarantee of her innocence comes from Greenie, who for all we know could be a co-conspirator. Might want to keep that in mind.

Well you know..."Why youth? We already have enough youth. Why not a fountain of smart?" :p

As long as it's tilapia

Kills don't seem like him? Yet, he seems to provide answers to why they were killed?

I think what Rikae says makes sense, but right now I find it more telling that Nogrod gave a reason for Eomer's death and two others (Mac and Lommy) came in for support as if to say case closed...that is usually a telling sign of wolf (or mutineer behavior).

And of course Nogrod's assured-ness of the matter, usually he's debating theories and possibilities, but not this time...nope Eomer was killed because he's usually a sensible player who can be a dangerous voter...the end.

Also, he rather sneakily blames me for it, yet also makes a statement that I'm innocent:
Ahh...so I'm to blame for Eomer's death? And 'they' took my advice...which Nogrod happens to clearly distinguish me as being separate from 'them.' He's right about that, I'm not 'them,' but Nogrod's assuredness regarding Eomer's death and 'them' (the mutineers) is suspicious.

Also, if you think about it...Day 1 McCaber, Day 2 Mira...we've tried the quite thing, I'm assuming it hasn't worked so far...maybe we've chosen the wrong ones, but there's something up between that group of 3 who agree about Eomer's death. No one should overlook that.


Oh just saying that I'm a male, and you can say I'm intense, aggressive, whatever...I don't mind. :)

But that's because that actually is usually my tone, I'm a pretty intense person...most of the times it's just because I like to give everyone (including friends) grief over the silliest things, and other times I seriously am frustrated and that shows. That's just my behavior, so it's ok to call me intense, over-the-top, maybe dim and delusional because that's me. :D

I'm feeling not so great toDay, really worn out for some reason, so I think I'm just going to look at the people who have votes so far. This late in the Day it seems stupid to add yet another candidate in anyway.

So:

Gwath - is it just me or has he not actually said anything toDay and yet has accumulated two votes? From Eonwe and wilwa who are both voting for him for slipping under the radar ... pot kettle hmm?

Annu - firstly, sorry, he from now on! Interesting post. Defends his vote pretty well, calls it hasty but not ill-considered. Would like to see more reasoning about his vote for Shasta then since he said he'd look at him in much more detail. Ah we get: I still can't get rid off my suspicions about Shasta but will delay any action against him for now. His little skirmish with Rikae shouldn't perhaps weigh so much in my scales but that's the most tangible thing I've found thus far. Though things have calmed down since. Not much of a case really there. I was under the impression that it was what he said in his original 'pros and cons' post that caused Annu to be suspicious of him rather than the argument with Rikae. Would really like to see some more reasoning on this, especially if he's not going to be around much tomorrow.

Nog - now, this argument. I got very bored reading the posts with statistics in for the simple reason that I just couldn't follow them. So I want to simplify the Nog/Boro/Mac thing. Is it that basically, Nog wanted to lynch someone other than Mira in order to have more of a chance of getting a wolf? Mac also agrees with Nog on that ... but then seems to change his mind. But Boro thinks it was right to lynch Mira. Is that right? Looking at the intensity with which this argument has been conducted toDay I would say it's likely that most if not all of these three are innocent. Time after time we see a huge blow up over something that is simply between two paranoid innocents, or possibly three here. Given the players involved, however, I think it's possible there might be a wolf hopping on the argument bandwagon. It would have to be a bold wolf who could cope with the attention but that's why I said given the players involved.

sally - voted Shasta very early because she knew she might not have another chance to vote and because he was her top suspect. That's fine, but I can't anywhere find her reasoning for why he's her top suspect! If I had that I'd be much happier about her.

Shasta - votes Annu but again no reasoning!

Hmm. I don't know what to make of this. Annu I'm worried about because I would really like to see some thought through reasoning from him on why he finds Shasta suspicious because to me it feels like he's riding on Rikae's coat tails. Despite that I think he is more suspicious than her because while she may have (in my opinion) reacted overly strongly to what Shasta said I think Annu jumped on that far too quickly. I would be tempted to vote Shasta for the lack of reasoning. If you've got long enough to vote you've got long enough to write even a short sentence on why that person ... same goes for sally actually. That said Shasta I thought looked pretty innocent yesterDay so I won't vote for him.

Oh that's it, I'm arguing myself in circles now so I'm voting and going to bed:

++ANNU

Just still haven't got any worthwhile reasoning on his suspicion of Shasta, despite a post in which he had good reasoning for some suspicion or non-suspicion of many others.