Farael concerns me too, Rikae. I've noticed that he's been too friendly for comfort, even with his 'conspiracy theorist' role. Unlike you, though, I would not be unhappy with voting for either Nerwen or The Might.

My opinion on Nerwen is still befuddled: on the one hand the killing of Shasta by her would have been unusually bold, but on the other she's been a bit too confrontational and dominant in the village debate.

The Might seems awfully creepy to me (but maybe I'm consciously making this so because of his votes for me). He doesn't show up much, doesn't say much, and votes for someone who hasn't received a single other vote -- probably to give himself an aura of originality.

Looks like things are flowing slowly, yet are flowing. Let me add my two cents to the debate.

Concerning Farael, he does not seem suspicious to me. I wouldn't say he is "too friendly" - I played with him only a few times so I don't know his style as well as some others here, yet he does not raise any alarms and in fact seems quite genuine and helpful, or at least trying to be helpful. So I'm not bothered with him this far.

My problem with Miggy is rather that he acts differently than in the games before: he acts more on his own behalf, does not "go with the flow" but stands against it. Which is also what concerns his vote yesterDay. And now I see he holds his case even toDay. A stubborn Miggy could very well hide his wolfishness behind his stubborness. Hm. I don't have any particular view on Eomer, in fact, I did not focus on him much till this time, however (and because) there was nothing particularly alarming about him, at least to me. So I cannot judge TM on this basis, maybe he just spotted something I didn't. Also, maybe it is indeed only that Miggy has more time on his hands, as he says, and so he has the chance to form his own opinions.

Now what to make of this? Is this "oh my, I knew things are going to get wrong, but you know, I just did that"? Honest? Or is it a dodge from the wolvish Might?

Well, I cannot say I would be strongly convinced of TM's guilt, yet, I consider him as one of the possible suspects and if there are no better candidates toDay, I may vote him. But it's still a long time till DL and I will wait and use the time to sort my thoughts on everything.

A bit of a long one, I am afraid, but there’s quite a bit to catch up on.

And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.

What is it toDay with people accusing me of twisting the facts?! All I said was that, of all the votes yesterDay, yours looks the most like a ‘throwaway’ vote. Which it does.

I disagree. If he’s a Wolf, he’s a dangerous one. Better to lynch him now than later. And your comparison with Nog eventually being spotted in a previous village by virtue of him not having been killed doesn’t work here, to my mind. Most villagers here are strong players, so I should imagine that a few will remain for him to hide amongst.

Actually, reading morm’s analysis, which accords with my recollection (and Boro‘s subsequent analysis), he has pretty much, at least on Day 1.

Legate, I am not going to respond to your analysis of me in detail. It was pretty accurate actually, save for the asides. But we all know that one can approach an analysis of someone with a certain feeling and find that it justifies that feeling (or, indeed, that one can craft an analysis with Wolfish intent). It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you. One point that I will respond to, though:

For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.

Finally (for now), I am becoming a tad concerned about Boro. He’s been acting awfully strange toDay. There may well be a good (as in virtuous) explanation for it, but it looks plain weird to me. I don’t understand his reasoning for ‘clearing’ morm at all. But the question for me is should we trust him?

OK, so here’s where I am at the moment.

Mac remains my strongest suspect. I think it quite credible that he started out on Day 1 Wolfishly trying to distance himself from Nog but that, when the votes started to come in, they switched to ‘plan B’ - the lynching of Noggie to make Mac look good. It seems that Mac’s ‘spotting’ of Noggie remains the reason why some are not prepared to vote for him so, if I am right, the plan has worked to a degree. His overly-aggressive responses to me earlier toDay have only served to reinforce my suspicion of him.

Legate has promoted himself to second on my suspect list. His Noggie vote looks ‘forced’ to me and could well have been planned between them. His decision to analyse me toDay, the one (I think) person who has expressed serious suspicion of him, looks to me like a possible attempt to make be back off, but it has had quite the opposite effect on me.

I am still vaguely uneasy about Aganzir. She could be a Wolf with Legate, but I highly doubt that she’s one with Mac. Of the Nog-voters, though, hers looks the least Wolfish to me (other than my own, of course).

I haven’t forgotten Kath, though she has said far too little toDay for me to have any more idea about her than I did yesterDay.

I was beginning to have doubts about The Might, mainly for his case against Shasta on Day 1 and his vote for Eomer yesterDay. And he has seemed slightly jumpy toDay, what with accusing me of twisting things when I was merely pointing out that his Eomer vote could be characterised as a ‘throwaway’ vote. But I wonder whether, having been criticised for it, a WolfMight would vote Eomer again. And I am wary of the suspicion that suddenly seems to be building up around him. The ‘defence of Nerwen’ thing seems to be intriguing, though.

Which brings me to Nerwen. I think people are right to label her as nervous and jumpy. But I can understand her explanation, given that she has attracted so much suspicion so far. I thought her cautious in the early stages of Day 1, which was my reason for considering her then. But, otherwise, I can see little Wolfish about her. That said, her death, whether she is guilty or innocent, may well help explain a few things. It would not necessarily be a bad thing for her to be lynched toDay, but it will not be by my hand, as I think her more likely innocent than guilty.

Which brings me to my vote. Again, I may well be able to make it back later, but I cannot be certain. So I will take up Mac on that dare and put my money where my mouth is.

++Mac

I thought I would make it back earlier, but now I'm here.

It seems like we're going towards lynching either Nerwen or the Might. I still think Nerwen to be innocent. The killing of Shasta is in favour of it, her genuine confusion (sorry, but that's how much of it seems to me), but most of all it's simply a feeling I get when I read her posts.

The Might, I have to admit, has rather escaped my attention so far. I should have a close look at him now.


If Legate's vote was a wolf-on-wolf vote, it was a rather clumsy one, I think. Too clumsy for Nogrod and Legate - they would have done it better or not at all. I think Legate is innocent because he hasn't said anything that was really suspicious to me, unlike Aganzir.

(edit: crossed with Saucepan)

I am concerned at how Mac has cowed everyone to back off of him, and yet the concerns that were raised against him have not been resolved.

He just "threatened" everyone with "prove it or shut it" and well.. .it's hard to prove anything, all we have is circumstantial evidence. That's EXACTLY why a wolf would benefit so much from attacking another wolf in Day 1, even if one of the two was to be lynched.

Therefore, I'll take a chance and vote for Mac.... yes, yes I know, I'm flip-flopping and it'll cost me... Tomorrow (game-wise) I'll be accused of just about anything for a flip-flop.

But I am too willing to put my vote where my mouth is

++Macalaure

Boro - The person of whose innocence I've been quite sure for the whole game.
I'm slightly concerned, though, about the way he's saying we shouldn't concentrate on this far-fetched theory of both Nog and Mac being wolves. If Mac's revealed to be a wolf, I think it might point at Boro also.

Eomer - Another I have been considering innocent. One of the main reasons he has stated himself: "If a wolf is leading the votes 5-3 (I believe those were the numbers) with two minutes to go before deadline, why would a fellow wolf appear and mount a comically late attempt to save him?"
He's being reasonable and has good points.

Farael - I really can't say about him. I've been more or less trusting him thus far, but I don't know. I think his way of suspecting people is different from the last game (the only I've played with him), but he said himself his playing style may vary from game to game, so I don't think that's a reason to be concerned.
I'm more inclined to think he's innocent.

Isabell - I admit I've only played once with her a long time ago, and we were fellow wolves then, so I don't really know about her general playing style. At least she's different from the Izzie I plotted with, but then again it was her first game here.
She's been mostly reasonable, but I still don't completely understand where she got her suspicions about me as I had already explained my reasons. However, I doubt a wolf would suspect an innocent about something that should be quite clear.

Kath - Considering her own behaviour, she looks rather innocent. But the way she kept accusing Nerwen looks weird to me. Of those twain, I think Nerwen is more probably innocent.

Legate - He doesn't sit right with me. He's not being himself, and I will be very surprised if he turns out to be innocent. I copy what I said in #248: "He just seems to be a complete, deliberate opposite to the normal Legate."
The more I suspect him, the more he seems to be suspecting me.
And I know I'm sometimes a clever wolf, you can stop repeating it now. But I also hope I'm a better tactician than what you are saying.

Mac - My opinion hasn't changed.

morm - It's hard to read him. I'm quite sure, though, that both Mac and him aren't wolves as he brought forward the Nog-Mac debate in his first post on Day 2. At the moment I'm not too worried about him.

Nerwen - I think she's no different from usual. If I remember correctly she has always gathered a lot of suspicion without ever being a wolf. While I think it's improbable that a Nerwolf had killed Shasta, I do believe, though, that she would have been capable and daring enough to do that.
I agree with her about several things & am quite inclined to consider her innocent.

Rikae - Pretty much the normal Rikae. I'm inclined to think she's innocent.

Might - I agree with (otherwise distrusted) Legate that Might has been more independent than in the previous games. But I think that doesn't necessarily point at wolvishness but the experience he has gained, and I also buy his own explanation. Other than that, there's very little I can say about him, except that I don't particularly like his Eomer votes. He's another player who is suspected every single time.

Saucie - Sensible. His argument with Mac makes me feel better about him.

**

Innocent:
Eomer
morm
Nerwen
Rikae

Possibly innocent:
Boro
Farael
Isabell
Saucie

Possibly guilty:
Kath
Might

Guilty:
Mac
Legate

**

I'm afraid I didn't quite grasp what you mean here.

edit: xed with two Saucies, Mac and Farael

The Might is consistent about finding Nerwen innocent. It seems like, if Nerwen is a wolf, then he is, too. However, I don't find this consistency suspicious in itself, since I come to the same conclusion about Nerwen.

Then he misses his vote, which isn't good, but doesn't tell anything about his role. If we are to buy his explanation for it, it makes him more likely innocent, because it's less probable that he got confused over the deadlines with three people pming him over the day.

His vote for Eomer itself is not so suspicious. It came relatively early, so it's not as much of a throwaway as Aganzir's. However, the reasoning behind it is bad, I think, or at least he doesn't explain it properly. The way he does explain it, it comes purely from the way Eomer attacked Nerwen. I see why he wants to defend her, but he's taking it too far. He's also focussing too much on things surrounding Nerwen, which is strange - and not helpful at all.

Today, with him and Nerwen being in the spotlight a lot, he still refrains from reconsidering her innocence. If he was a wolf and she not, then he probably wouldn't have done that, since her lynching would be a good way to save himself.

The Might could be a wolf, but I don't really think so. However, if he is, then Nerwen is, too, in all probability. But I have very little faith that they are.

Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote? A vote that doesn't contribute to lynching someone instead of someone other? I can hardly see my vote as a throw-away, as I voted for the person I suspected most instead of someone I didn't suspect at all.

And it's hard to believe you have forgotten this quickly how A Little Green incriminated morm in the last game by constantly defending him... And she was a first-timer, Might and Nerwen aren't.

Well, at least this vote isn't a throw-away, even on your criteria.

++ Macalaure

Dog for a walk now, be back soon.

++ Nerwen

Her comment after deadline yesterDay, was obviously in regards to self preservation.. yet did it really need to be said in that manner?

Her being against Morm is a bit flimsy in my opinion. We are in a village and we need to find the wolves. If we don't verbally attack each other and cast suspicions and accusations around; then who will do it for us? How will we find the wolves; eenie meenie mynie moe?

She comments on him attacking others for disagreeing with him; yet when it comes to commenting on those who've voiced suspicion against her, she finds it odd and weird. Which I don't see how, I think those who've voiced suspicion have made their reasons clear.

Post #295:
Post #299 - She votes for morm.

Post #300 - Boro states he was off track with morm and that he is not a wolf.

Post #303 & 309 - Waits to hear what Boro says.

Post #316 - retracts vote on Morm.

I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves. In the span of one post, she had almost recanted her vote; it was only 16 more posts before she did.

I believe it has been said that a Nerwolf would not be so bold as to kill Shasta; yet do not forget that there were three wolves alive when Shasta died during NightOne.


I think I've said enough about Nerwen..

X'd with Mac and Aganzir.

Votes thus far

Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)

Aganzir, if you don't know what I mean there, there's no use explaining - it's about as clear as it could possibly be. Well, here goes: you responded to Mac's suspicions by claiming that he was trying to stop you from suspecting him, but you really presented no danger to him at that point, as far as I could see. It looks to me like a sneaky way of trying to make someone look defensive when he isn't.
I don't find TM wolfish in the least - it's obvious to me he is simply confused, and lynching someone for coming up with his own opinions is downright ridiculous. If he is coming into his own as a player, good for him, I say.
I also don't particularly want to lynch Nerwen, as the suspicions of her seem based, more than anything, on her Nerwen-ishness. She has always been rather edgy and aggressive, as I recall; however, I will consider switching my vote to her if necessary.
I'm concerned that lynching Macalaure may be a very serious mistake. Remember, Nogrod is a very prominent player and a likely target for closer observation earlier in the game.
I strongly suggest we listen to Macalaure before we judge him.

++Aganzir

Of course it was weak - it was nothing but a hunch. And it was one from somebody whose role nobody knew. If I had nothing to show but her hunch, I wouldn't suspect you. It's just one more thing and worth adding.

A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.

So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent? There was none among them of whom you were more sure of than the other, that you would rather have kept alive than the other? I don't find this believable. Not at all. Your vote could have achieved something, but you preferred to throw it away instead. And that is telling.

You seem to forget that Nogrod was a wolf. I was not trying hard to find something wolfish, I was only pointing out what was there. You're making it sound as if I made my points up!

And your "a plot that went bad"-theory is far-fetched.

And you accuse me of grasping at straws... :rolleyes:

Actually, that's an awful slip by you Macawolf... a throwaway vote is voting for someone solely 'cos that "someone" looks like is going to be lynched. Voting for your top suspect is never a throwaway vote, as it leaves evidence for the village

Would you have us all blindly follow the lead of a few early voters to define who gets killed every day? please even you know better.

I feared I would again get no support for lynching Aganzir. I'm happy that it seems not to be this way.

++Aganzir

Following up on my last post,

Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.

Another votes update


Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)

Well ... I am back (just), and I find myself inclined to leave my vote as it is. I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person. At any rate, I did and do have some suspicion of her. I still don't understand why Boro and I were put together as wolvish chums, nor do I understand why my voting for her after that comment made me suspicious to her. In fact most of her attacks on me seemed to be solely as a result of my suspicion of her, and given that I know Nerwen is a smart player that seems an odd thing to do.

Anyway, I am rambling. I'll keep an eye on what's going on, but I think I'm going to leave this as is.

Rikae, to me that wasn't clear. It was what I think Mac was doing, whether I presented a real danger or not.

I found them all innocent, and for me that's good enough a reason to vote someone I suspect instead. As improbable as it was, I was also hoping someone would return and switch to you.

I'm not making it sound like that. I'm pointing out things that make me think it is so.

edit: xed with two Faraels and Kath

It was always my understanding that either one - voting for someone who has no chance of being lynched, or voting for someone who will certainly be lynched anyway - could be considered a "throwaway vote".
Which is why, incidentally, I didn't vote for you, Farael.
But I hope this balderdash about semantics and oversimplification of voting-analysis means that a vote for you won't be a "throw-away" tomorrow...

EDIT: X'd with Kath and Aganzir

Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?

Classy... curiously enough, your weak attack on Aganzir, based on this "throwaway vote" is the reason this debate is happening.

Rikae if you are an ordo you are in for a rude awakening.... if Mac is not a wolf, I'll eat my hat! I know that didn't work last time around but I can't be THAT unlucky :p

To Mr. SpM
 

as his post make me even more worried about him than before.

Mr.Sp., that is a very wolfy way of turning things at me. This is not an argument. I chose you simply because I considered you the most suspicious of the people I wanted to analyze - and I ended with a rather unpleasant picture of you. And you are not the only one who raised doubts about me - for example Aganzir also voiced some disconcern.

This enthusiasm is not helping, SpM. Shouting things like "for goodness sake" is not going to raise your reputation in eyes of others, at least not if they think like I do. This "voice of Saruman" is not only about voting Valier, but about your behaviour overall. I think it is not much wise to split votes more now, yet if anyone was willing, I could advise even voting for you toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with about four hundred people since Rikae's vote.

I don't think I buy that you found them all perfectly innocent. Getting me lynched at that time yesterday was improbable, but you could maybe have done it if you had urged anybody else to follow your vote, which you didn't. It might seem unlikely, but if you would have, I would feel better about you now.


You're pointing out a possibility, but you make no claims why this possibility is more likely than the opposite. Ergo: you're making things up.

I know. But I did that to make a point against Aganzir, not to debate the issue in general. That we should leave for earlier hours.

You amaze me... and I started that argument not for the argument itself but rather as a point against You

Or are you beyond suspicion now?

Okee-dokee. If there is anyone among toDay's lynch candidates whom I find suspicious, it is Aganzir. Neither Nerwen nor Mac seem suspicious to me to that extent.

++Aganzir

I am still trying to understand why all certainty in this village revolves around Macalaure, against him or from him. It bothers me a lot.

Deadline coming up in 15 minutes

Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Legate: Aganzir (Aganzir 3, Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)

As it stands right now, Aganzir is done for...

Someone switch to Mac, please.
If I die today, take a closer look on Rikae and Legate too. I don't think they are players that are convinced that easily.

Well, it seems unlikely that I can get Nerwen lynched, because she can counter my move (if, as I presume, she is hovering around). If she likes, she can lynch the Might rather than Aganzir.

++THE MIGHT

It may look odd that I'm leaving the choice to her who I have voted for twice previously, but that's the way this situation has unfolded.

--The Might

Just a preliminary precaution if some vote decides to show up that doesn't sit right with me.

-- Mac

++ Mac

I don't know if this counts, but I'm an innocent and don't want to die.

It's not only innocents who don't want to die.

Well, partly because I have had suspicions of Mac, and partly just to save Aganzir, and/or The Might (I’ve lost track of which is in the lead, but anyway I think them both probably innocent)–

++Macalaure

I'm not sure whether this is the way this rule is supposed to work :(, but...

--Aganzir

++Aganzir


(xed with Nerwen, now that is just great...)

-- Aga
++ Nerwen

all right...
 

Unless I am mistaken, Nerwen wins (or loses) with 5 votes.

The death will be up soon.

Day 3 ends...
 

The fear and suspicion in the village reached a fever pitch, accusations flew, and many thrashed mightily beneath the weight of votes.

Several villagers put their entire weight behind their beliefs, exploiting every voting loophole they could see in order to obtain the desired outcome.

In the end, it was Nerwen, the miller, who came up on the wrong end of the townsfolk.

A relieved Aganzir led Nerwen to the gallows, thankful that she would not herself be hung- yet, anyway. Mac, who had barely escaped himself, stepped up to help bind Nerwen. "Never again will you hunt us by night, foul beast," he whispered to her.

"Then I suppose if I'm going to kill someone, I should do it now!" she whispered back fiercely. Just as Aganzir tried to loop the rope around her neck, Nerwen lowered her head and bulled into Mac, knocking him off the platform into the other villagers. "I will kill everyone who dared to vote for me!" she screamed, leaping down after Mac, her claws and fangs lengthening rapidly.

"It's a Werewolf!" cried Isabellyka.

"We know!" shouted Farael as he grabbed a piece of firewood and hurled it at Nerwen.

But the throw missed. It passed over Nerwen's head as she fell forward onto her face. And there she lay, unmoving, with a wood-working knife embedded in her spine.

"Nice throw, morm," said SPM.

The fog rose high into the air, and seemed to glow red with wrath.

Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker

Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- Day 2 Hunter victim (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- Day 3 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)

IT IS NOW NIGHT 4. YOU MAY NOT POST.