And I would have been lynched with that phrase on my lips. :rolleyes:

Well, now what I said before seems logical: SpM is a cobbler and Kath is trying to save Mac and let us lynch the Cobbler. Cf. my post. Be careful, all innocents have to vote together, we have quite a lot of baddies here (4). Wow, really adrenaline.

Legate ... what? I know Volo has cleared you, that was entirely the point. We need to lynch someone that has been 'dreamt' of one way or another to prove or disprove someone's claim of being the Seer. But that's actually not you, it's Sauce, as there is an opinion on him from both sides.

Surely you can see that lynching Sauce is the best way to prove this? For starters if he's evil we've got rid of a Cobbler and if he's innocent we know who to trust.

Xd my last post with everything since #314 and this post with everything since my last post.

I'm sorry about the EDIT-confusion. It's something I've always done and seen people do, but if it's really annoying I'll stop. (though it is damn helpful)

I can't choose my dreams...

Hmmm... Good point. I'll stick with Mac for now.

Xd with everything since my last post.

I can! :Merisu:

Seriously, I have said all I can. It depends on you people now.

(PS: why is that one 'o' bolded :confused: )

Rune had suspected Mac so long that I wouldn't wonder if it was him who he spied the Night he died...

Volo: Got that. I just haven't time to read through yesterday properly, I arrived about an hour before the start... I spent most time with SpM's status against me.

For starters, if Mac is lying, and that is what we will learn when he is lynched, then Volo is, together with all the other facts, not lying. If we get rid of a Cobbler, we don't help our case in any way, because there will be still three wolves running around. And they need to get the upper hand in numbers, Cobbler, in this, is on our side (he counts to the number of innocents). If we don't listen to him and ignore him, he can't do anything apart from voting for one of us. When SpM comes, you'll see it from his vote - of course, I strongly suggest ignoring everything he says, because whatever it will be, it will be meant to confuse us. Just act like he werent't there.

Guys can we all just calm down for a second and think?

Can anyone tell me why lynching Sauce toDay is a bad idea? Can anyone tell me why finding out which of our two Seers is telling the truth is a bad idea?

Aside from the fact that we lose a very useful innocent in Sauce if Mac is telling the truth that's it for downsides.

If Volo is telling the truth we lynch Mac tomorrow.

If Mac is telling the truth we double-lynch Volo with someone he has claimed is innocent tomorrow.

Is there anything here that doesn't make sense?

Well, though it's a good idea, I think it is not much of a proof, you know. But nevertheless, I suggest we lynch Mac, for what I said earlier. And everyone who came here, I suggest you read my posts (there's just three of them this far) to avoid problems. Yes, that's Sarumanic syndrome of organizing things, I know :D

So, I think we can make it like this?

++Mac

EDIT: x-ed with Kath.

Actually, we might as well lynch Mac. Even if we prove he is who he says he is the wolves will just kill him toNight and we won't get a dream out of him.

Oh this sucks.

Kath, well, if Mac was telling the truth (which I don't happen to believe), he would die anyway the next Night. If he's not telling the truth, he's either a wolf or the cobbler, and we had better get rid of him quickly. I think it's all the same whether we lynch him toDay or let the Wolves kill him during the Night.

The thing I find weird is that you keep insisting we should lynch Spm, who now seems to be the Cobbler. It's difficult to expect you would believe Mac even that much that you can be uncertain if it's Volo or Mac who is lying, were you an innocent. :rolleyes:

I think Legate is right and that we should lynch Mac now. Therefore,

++Macalaure

edit: xed with Kath

Yeah I just figured that out Aganzir. Me being dense. I forgot he didn't have the same helpful half-immortality thing Volo claims to.

Lynching Mac does now seem to be the best thing to do.

++ MAC

I can't see why this argument should not apply to Volo as well. In the end, it comes down to the question whom you rather believe.

Tell me, how can I make you believe me, Aganzir? :(

~crossed with Kath

I can only shake my head at this whole development. :rolleyes:

I can't believe nobody, nobody at all, makes the effort to look back over the thread to decide with a little bit of reason whom to believe and whom not to.

Maybe it would have been easier if I hadn't started making analyses (which I unfortunately never had time to complete, due to RL, and then there was again too much happening in the game that I could have been concentrating on them) of both you and Spm during the previous Days... :rolleyes: And because of that I rather believe Volo. :p

This is one of those times when analysis is outdated by the time the ink is dry...

I'd bet, personally, on a combination of Sauce, Kath, Diamond and Mac for evildoers. I trust Volo, and find the very accuracy of Mac's "revelation" - I am indeed a villager - proves its falseness. I must congratulate Rikae and Volo for the imaginative nature of that role and the perspicacity with which it has just been used.

I suggest we double-lynch Kath and Mac, or Diamond and Mac. Preferably the former.

But first we should look at those riddles with care. There's still an outside chance Mac's innocent; the quotation comes from a Conspiracy Unmasked, where the conspirators turned out not to be all that dreadful. So I shall reserve my vote for now. Besides it might be needed for tactical orchestration of a double-lynch.

*lifts his arms into the air in disbelief*

Ang why on earth would you double-lynch?

But this is about SpM, and this is why I think he's the Cobbler. And I wouldn't count context in this - context has nothing to do with it in this case: these are just phrases. You wouldn't make Gollum nor Saruman good even if you stood on your head.

There's also a very slight possibility that we're barking up the wrong tree, as Volo wasn't told who the riddle was about and he had to figure it out it himself, but I don't think that's very probable. At least Legate and I were quite clear, and I can't think of anyone but Spm who could come out of a cupboard...

Mac, in civilian life my respect for you knows no bounds, but cut the ham acting. You were hired for a non-speaking part and this melodrama role just isn't suiting you. Be absolute for death. It will come as a relief to your tormented soul.

Kath - why on Arda not? I want a swift and convincing victory, not a series of interminable drib-drabs with nothing to say and the defeat of the wolves still inevitable (let's face it, we still have two Medium dreams, which are pretty easy to decode, and the number of suspects is radically shrinking. You wolves are doomed.)

We're making a film here, you know; I say it needs a spectacular finish.

Perhaps I should make a little trouble to aid that finish.

++KATH

Curunir, we are of one mind. Shall we meet beneath the eaves of the forest, friend, and shake hands as brothers and equals at last?

Unless you are a Wolf with the last noble attempt to seem like a good guy who agrees with Volo, when this all ends, I'll be happy to welcome you in my Treegarth of Orthanc. I also heard the mallorn wood has very good calorific value... *ahem* But if so, you'll see that a strong place and wonderful is Isengard, and also beautiful; and in ages long past there great lords had dwelt, the wardens of Gondor upon the West, and wise men that watched the stars... And there you will stay, and rest from journeys. For I am Saruman the Wise, Saruman the White, Saruman the Survivor. But only thus far. So let's not plan too much forward, we are not at the end yet...

(notice: no in-game point in the text from sentence 2 onwards)

Well isn't this exciting. At first this issue seems confusing but actually, it kind of makes things easier. I was for lynching Mac before and right now this whole kafuffle between him and Volo over who's the seer is just cementing my bad feelings over him. I have no objection to lynching him. If he's guilty, we follow up with Sauce, and if he's innocent, Volo.

+ + Mac

Makes sense to me.

Now, as far as the questions re: "where is Diamond?"... pardon me for sounding a little annoyed but I did say in the Admin thread that I was going to be very busy all week and was unsure if I'd even be able to make it online toward the end of the week. It's just plain old boring real life, not malice, that's keeping me away.

Yes, I can! I am …

… the true Seer!

The remaining Wolves are Mac, Volo and Legate!

(*Joke*) :rolleyes:

So, who to believe? It's rather a no brainer for me.

I said yesterDay that I thought one of Rune or Volo was lying. Rune was obviously telling the truth, so I had already concluded that Volo’s claim was probably false. Two Rangers plus a Seer with two lives just seems very unbalanced to me. And all these sudden changes in his story are stretching the bounds of credibility. Looking back, I can see no reason why, if he was the true Seer, he (re-)revealed yesterDay. It followed Rune’s revelation and it was purportedly done to show why he distrusted Rune’s claim.

But that’s no reason for a Seer to reveal, especially as Rune’s claim could be (and was) tested quite easily. It looks to me like either an attempt to discredit Rune’s claim that did not come off or an attempt to flush out the real Seer which did (or both). And what’s with these ex post facto edits? I can’t see what happened, and wouldn’t mind an explanation, but it looks mighty suspicious to me.

I also found Volo’s claim that Legate was innocent difficult to believe, and now comes his claim, based on his dream, that I am “sinister”, whereas I can assure you that I am innocent, if decidedly ordinary.

Mac’s claim looks entirely more credible to me. It was made in response to another Seer’s claim that he was a Wolf and the role that he describes looks much more in keeping with game balance. There’s also the fact that he has dreamed of me and accurately found me to be an ordo.

I am not at all surprised that Legate has accepted, and is supporting, Volo’s story, as I have had him pegged as a Wolf all along. He could do little else, since they are inextricably linked by Volo’s determined, even desperate, attempts to save him from the noose.

As for the others, well there is probably a Wolf among you, but I cannot understand why the rest of you are bying Volo's claim so easily.

I would suggest that we lynch Volo toDay and, when he is proven a Wolf, lynch the Legate of Tol Gaurhoth toMorrow.

++Volo

meh why not


i'm actually the seer, i've been pretending to play low so i can strike a balance

i did my rune attack to draw out some potential wolves...


yes i jokes, but i'm going to vote for Mac mainly because i am sure that the gifteds know of each other gifteds.... so mac wasting a dream on rune is well, a waste

++Macalaure :p

Actually, it was a rather sensible suggestion as, while any doubt still remains, it is the only way of ensuring that we are one Wolf (or at least the Cobbler) down toMorrow. The fact that Mac suggested it, and is willing to die to see a baddie killed, whereas Volo has made no such suggestion, merely reinforces my view.

Actually, Rune made it clear that he did not know of Lommy's identity until he spied on her, which was unfortunately the Night that she died.

Good grief! Apart from one Wolf and one Cobbler, you are all allowing Volo and Legate to play you for fools ... :rolleyes:

Eugh, curse you SPM for being so persuasive... I think I'm back to being confused about our two "seers." I can see both scenarios being possible. I feel like sticking to Mac, but I'll sleep on it. Hopefully I can get online tomorrow at least an hour before the deadline.

So then....

Volo: Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Sauce: Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)

So Mac's definately in the lead.

If we lynch Mac, and he's lying, then Volo must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer (unless he's lying about the two lives)
If we lynch Volo, and he's lying, then Mac must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer.
If we lynch Mac, and he's not lying, then Volo's a wolf; we lynch him tomorrow, but we lose our seer.
If we lynch Volo, and he's not lying, then the wolves kill him off at night, and we lynch Mac tomorrow, but we lose our seer.

If we double-lynch Volo and Mac, then we bag a wolf either way, and the Seer's no loss, as we would have lost him anyway... I'll side with Ang and say that I don't see anything wrong with that.

Of course, the fact that Volo's lied twice on-thread has put me on my guard, no matter how much he sugarcoated it. :rolleyes:

++Volo

Of course, I'll be on before the deadline, ready and willing to retract my vote if need be.

Oh, I guess I need to put my own vote in the tally. xD

Everybody has voted, and this is looking pretty bad.

Three sure innocents (Volo, Legate, me) + most probably innocent Gil are voting for Mac. Then there are Kath & Di, and at least one of them (possibly both) are wolves.
That's not enough to kill Mac!

Only two last minute retractions are needed, and Volo will be an easy target for the wolves next Night.

Non-Mac voters are Mac (Volo), Ang (Kath), Sauce (Volo), Shasta (Volo). If any of you is innocent, I suggest retracting for Mac.

Of course this vote of Shasta makes him look quite bad now, and I hope this means that either Kath or Di is innocent. Of course it's no use to rely on that.

I must go, I'll be back in 6 hours or something.

edit: corrected a name

I've been thinking on the Days to follow and brought a chart of possibilities.

I have very little time right now, but in about 4 hours I'll explain.

Let's just say that I think of it very probable that Shasta and Kath (or maybe Diamond are Wolves.

If that is the case, I'l trust that both of the two ladies won't change their vote to me, especially as that will condemn them to death in the following Days.

Ang are you ready to move your vote to Mac if needed?


I don't think that there is too much fear of me being lynched as that would reaveal the Wolves.

Alright. Even though I feel like preaching to walls I will give it one more try.


Volo is evil, whether wolf or cobbler I don't know.

I suspected Aganzir the past days, but her behaviour today looks very innocentish, albeit misguided. For the sake of the village, you should reconsider the premises upon which you argue.

Kath seems like the only one who actually tries to see both sides of the current dilemma. Unfortunately, she reached the wrong conclusion.

Legate is surely a wolf. He is simply too secure about the whole situation and I also trust the senses of innocent Saucepan Man.

I know Ang to be innocent and because of it the more I am puzzled by his behaviour. I don't like his jokes about my "acting" and his vote for Kath, I'm afraid, makes no sense.

I don't like the fence-sitting of Diamond. I suspected her before and so I still do.

The Saucepan Man is innocent, and even if I didn't already know that, I would assume it now, because apart from Kath he is the only one who actually makes up his mind, even though he could simply have said: "I know I'm innocent, therefore Volo must be evil."

Gil I thought evil before and I still do so. He is also far more sinister than even the old Gil ever was.

I'm not sure about Shasta, but his arguments make sense to me. Though it's possible that his vote is wolf-on-wolf, I doubt it.


Baddies: Volo, Legate, Gil

Possible fourth baddie: Diamond

Probably innocent: Shasta, Kath, Aganzir

Known Innocents: Ang, SPM

Look at it this way.

We have two competing Seer claims.

One is the latest (in my view, barely credible) offering in a series of convoluted revelations which have adapted in response to changing circumstances and was entirely unprovoked.

The other is a single, straightforward claim which was made with good reason.

Which would you believe?

I would also note that Legate and Aganzir, who have been at the forefront of promoting Volo’s claim, also happen to be the two villagers that Volo has declared innocent. Legate is clearly a Wolf. It would be risky for Volo to claim both of his remaining companions as innocent, although not beyond the bounds of credibility, given the overly obvious nature of the move. However, I can understand why an innocent who has been declared innocent by a false Seer would support the claim. It is also possible that Volo is the Cobbler and was uncertain of the identities of those he claimed innocent when he made the claim.

I would urge those innocent villagers who have voted for Mac to reconsider their position in light of the above. I would prefer to see Volo lynched, but a double lynch of the two of them would be a reasonable outcome if you consider there to be any doubt, as it will at least ensure that a baddie (in my view a Wolf) is lynched, rather than just an innocent. Either way, we will lose the Seer, as I simply do not believe that, with two Gifteds able to protect him, the Seer would have been given two lives.

Shasta! If you are innocent, you'll vote Mac.

Because this is also way of proving that not only a Wolf, but also a way of ensuring the Seer is definitely down toMorrow! If Mac were the Seer, he'd be down, killed by wolves at night. But don't think that, if we lynched Volo, the wolves would kill Mac! Of course not - they'll get Volo's second life.

Whatever, it seems highly improbable now that Volo could get more votes than Mac. But who are innocent, should vote Mac, and certainly not Volo.

Wolfishness! Wolfishness! The audacity of it! Who other than the Wolves would seek to pressurise innocent villagers into voting for an innocent, a Seer no less, for fear of being lynched themselves?

I ask people to consider the evidence and vote in the interests of the village, not out of fear.

As I have explained, that "second life" claim is one of the reasons why I am exceedingly dubious (to say the least) of Volo's claim.

Charts (makes little sense, but important!!)
 

Day4

3 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
5 Innocents

7 vs 3

Sure:

4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 Wolf

Volo - The Medium
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Mac - Wolf

Unsure:

2 Wolves
3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


Day5

2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
4/5 Innocents

6/7 vs 2

Sure:

3/4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 ? (My dream next Night)

Volo - The Medium

(One of the two might be dead, probably Legate)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Unsure:

2 Wolves
3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


Day6

1/2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
0/1 Medium
3/4/5 Innocents

5 vs 2, or 6 vs 1

Sure:

2/3 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
2 ?

(Might be dead)
Volo - The Medium

(One or two might be dead)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Unsure:

1/2 Wolves
2/3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


The point:

This looks better on paper...

I'm saying that SPM will cause the votes to go against us. On Day 6 this might be critical if the Wolves kill two Innocents (Legate and Aganzir) and we won't catch a Wolf on Day 5.
It would cause the situation to be such that we have:

- The Medium
- The Cobbler
- Two Wolves
- Two Ordos

And this is the situation we will lose in whatever my dreams!!

So we have to catch a Wolf (or kill SPM) on Day 5 or then the Wolves should try killing me next Night or the Night after.



But back to the roles:

I think Rikae would want to make a balanced game and that the roles aren't 100% randomed. It might also be probable that she didn't give people the roles they have very often or in the preveous games.

That being the case this figure is the most probable:

Gifteds:

Lommy - Ranger/Assassin (dead)
An old timer that hasn't been a Ranger for a long long time.
Rune - Ranger/Spy (dead)
Same as Lommy.
Volo - Medium
A relative newbie that has never before been Seer.

Wolves (and Cobbler):

SPM - Cobbler
One of the oldest timers.
Brinniel - Wolf (dead)
A relative newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Mac - Wolf
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.
Shasta - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
A newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Kath - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.

Innocents

Anguirel
If he was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.
Diamond
Still debatable. She might be the Wolf, but given that she had a special role in the preveous game, I think that it's more probable that Kath is the Wolf.
Gil-Galad
Wolf in the preveous game.
Legate
Wolf in the preveous game.
Aganzir
If she was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.

The preveous conclution is based only on the idea that Rikae didn't random the roles and pretty much nothing else, but it does seem to back up the situation of the game otherwise.


Yeah, I really use my history lessons wisely... :rolleyes:

Good grief!
 

I don't like this sort of argument. I don't like it at all. It's the worst kind of meta and vague speculative reasoning I have ever seen. Not only do we not know how Rikae chose her roles, of course, but discussing it is simply wrong. It might even lead to the right conclusion in the end, but it shouldn't be part of in-game arguments, and as far as I remember it has never been so far in past games.


And what's even worse, some of your conclusions are simply wrong, and you know it:

The role of the assassin is close to the role of the hunter, and Lommy has been one recently.

You're too humble, Volo. ;)

Indeed, and probably the one with the best cobbler-reputation of all. You're contradicting yourself.

Care to explain?

This is purest speculation.

See Anguirel.


edit: and what does "makes little sense, but important!!" mean? ;)

Well, if the last two posts don't convince anyone who is telling the truth and who is not, I don't know what will. Pure speculation as to who might have been allocated what roles based on recent history sure ain't gonna help the village. And pure speculation based on past history which has been manipulated to the suit said speculator's own ends strongly smacks of Cobbleresque or lupine activity to my mind.

What's the matter Volo? Are you concerned that the facade of "evidence" that you started the Day with might be beginning to crumble under serious challenge?

I do agree with this though. And a multi-lived Seer with double protection sure doesn't look balanced to me.

One further point occured to me. In the highly unlikely event that, contrary to all the evidence, Volo is telling the truth (and has misinterpreted the dream about me, which does after all refer to Samwise), lynching him will prevent a further innocent death toNight. Whereas, if Mac is telling the truth, lynching him will result in the death of two innocents before the morning. Either way we lose our Seer, but we will at least have two known innocents rather than one come the morning, if we lynch Volo and are wrong. In those circumstances, and given the evidence now accumlated, I am confident that we can defeat the Wolves, even without our Seer.

You are too kind, but I would argue that the honour still lies with TORE. :D

That must have been ages before my time. :D


Looking up the vote count, again:

Volo: Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Sauce: Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)


- In order to lynch Volo and not me, we need two retractions from me to Volo.

- In order to lynch us both, we need either one retraction and Ang switching to Volo, or two retractions and Ang switching to me. The former is very improbable.

Of the ones who voted me, Volo, Legate and Gil are unlikely to retract. So is probably Aganzir, though I still haven't lost all hope.


Kath, Diamond, the decision is almost entirely up to you two. Make up your minds and decide carefully and wisely.