Right. Now to think.

The Ranger has bought us a little time, but the lynching of Kitanna presses us sorely. The stakes are high and we must make the right decision today. We have eight suspects, which means that each innocent has a 3/7 chance of choosing a wolf. (Y'see, chaps, I am properly educated! I can count, even if I am a no-good Gaurwaith.)

What I submit for the approval of the village is the following plan. The Ranger, alone of us, has a 1/2 chance of picking a wolf, because they know whoever they guarded last night is innocent. Should the village entreat the Ranger to come forward and name the person they saved?

On the plus side, this would mean all innocents had a 1/2 chance of choosing a wolf, and that we'd have two live proven innocents. We'd also have a long trail looking at those who suspected those innocents.

On the minus side, we'd still have a high chance of lynching an innocent and then the Ranger would be slain next night, leading to our irreversible defeat. (I checked the rules and I don't think that Rangers can guard themselves...correct me if I'm wrong.)

On consideration I think this is rather risky, but I would be interested in seeing your opinions on it as an idea.

Now, onto the suspects remaining-

Anguirel-I haven't voted for an innocent. Nor have I stuck to my guns. I know the phantom suspects me for the latter reason. However, I believe my defence of yesterday was adequate; my interest is in catching a viable wolf; and my point was proved yesterday, when the tide swung against me and an innocent was hanged. I am, however, suspicious due to the fact that Kitanna was high on my list, and accusation was implicit rather than actual. I can only say that I was impressed by the arguments of dancing spawn.

Boromir88-I voted for him yesterday, of course, also on spawn's counsel. I am now more unsure. The obvious innocence of Kitanna and my thoughts regarding Marcolie mean that he is now the only member of spawn's trio to still attract my suspicion. This rubbishes quite a lot of spawn's proposition. However, he's too unnervingly decent to be cleared.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant-disseminated a lot of fascinating, powerful, and mistaken deduction. May not be her fault. Quite equally, maybe. Her vote for Boromir could have been wolf-for-wolf-conceivably-if she imagined I was set on voting for Eonwe.

Eonwe-the phantom's curious accusatory non-accusation makes my suspicions of Eonwe deeper. Didn't vote last night. May still be thought of as too risky by most of you. I may return to pursuing him; he's a bigger priority than Boro.

Kuruharan-the obvious scapegoat, with Marcolie, for Kitanna's downfall; too obvious, I think, to be a wolf. I still have faith in him.

Lalaith-Not much faith here, really. Some slight entente with Kitanna. Cleared Marcolie and Kitanna-both innocent in my view-while suspecting Boro a bit; rather an unusual step, as spawn's theory bound them together. Wolf-for-wolf? Could be. Befuddled innocence? Could be.

Márcolië Lamen-is going to need a lot of saving. Don't worry, m'dear, our pact still holds. Vote for Kitanna looks as though it was partly Kuru-influenced (fiery rhetoric, alas!) and partly to show credibility as a non-wolf and no part of spawn's proposed triad. Voting for her as a reaction to the Kitanna mistake would be really stupid of us...and pretty typical, too.

the phantom-if a wolf, then I would tend to partner him with Eonwe. More suspicious than Kuru. This is largely, admittedly, a defensive emotion and reaction; perhaps leave for now and go for cohorts.

Possible triumvirates-

Boro-Spawn-Lalaith

phantom-Spawn-Eonwe

Boro-phantom-Eonwe

and many more...

Tricky, tricky. The Ranger's revelations could turn on the light in this confused darkness, but could also be our undoing.

Good job ranger. You managed to keep an innocent alive.

In terms of suspects, I really don't know. It seems like whoever I start suspecting turns out to be an innocent. I won't give up though.

Looking through the list:

Anguirel-somehow has managed to keep out of lynching guilt.
Boromir88-
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant-Has been having mistaken logic, and strong and arguing it. I want a response from Spawn before making any decisions though
Eonwe-Almost playing the innocent newbie. Suspicious because of repeated suspisoin. Also because of easy partnership as others- mainly phantom
Kuruharan-Almost too obvious after Kitanna's lynching.
Lalaith-I've never completely trusted her. But nothing making her above the rest either.
Márcolië Lamen- I feel like my position now is not a good one for the village. I am in a extremely suspicoius position. Hopefully I can convince you of my innocence or at least of enough to stay alive and have better chance of catching a wolf.
the phantom-an easy position to influence others without being the obvious.


In general I really don't know who to be suspicious of. I'm afraid of making more mistakes.


We need to take advantage of the ranger's managing to save a villager, though.

Hmm...I seem to have missed a lot while I was off schmoozing.

I have to admit to being a bit surprised that Kitanna was not a wolf. I was beginning to feel a little confident when I voted yesterDAY.

Oh well, back to the drawing board.

Unfortunately, I have to leave again for a little bit, but will be back in plenty of time to vote.

Hmmm, Anguirel, now you're doing the naughty twisting-people's-words thing - Kuru's speciality. I didn't say I suspected Boro, I said I didn't have time to look into the theory. And why should I have followed spawn's theory anyway? It was wrong, as we now know.

I'm still suspecting everyone, but Kuru remains my chief suspect. I'm still looking at possible wolf combos, when work allows, and will post more later. But a Kuru-Ang combo is looking one of the more appealing, I must say.

Oh Eru. phantom reciprocates my ire and distrust, and I've managed to antagonise Lalaith, very possibly needlessly...things are not going well. Besides, nobody seems terribly interested in the vast majority of what I had to say, specifically the more interesting first bit...anyone have any comments?

Re-reading the minutes of our village councils has swung me more towards spawn than Boromir-but like Marcolie, I will wait for her defence.

It's interesting how most of you think that I'm mistaken really badly, manipulative and whatnot. I'm especially surprised by Anguirel's words...
... considering that I had just said: I also said that "all three aren't necessarily wolves. There might be two lycans in this trio who are just using the third one" and "of the Kitanna, Boromir & Marcolie trio I'm most suspicious of Boromir and Marcolie".

So, I haven't completely abandoned my theory yet but Anguirel's avoiding of responsibility makes me think... Speaking of which (thinking) I don't have much time right now and I want to take my time to ponder these things.

Oh, btw:
Three if the Ranger didn't protect the Hunter last night but anyway, they wouldn't be proven since we don't have our Seer anymore.

I'm beginning to fear a bandwagon developing against me...

They would be proven if the Ranger told the truth-a wolf isn't going to attack another wolf in the night, and there's no werebear here! And the Hunter shouldn't reveal themself because their death is of use to us, to put it bluntly. Still, thanks for your views on my idea; you're apparently the first to have noticed it...

Fair cop on my irresponsibility. But though you had not entreated me, I was aware that you had persuaded me, which can be far more dangerous, and I was, it's true, eager to escape the consequences of a possible mistake. Besides, I was trying to justify my vote to phantom. I do not relish the rope; too many of my comrades have been choked by it.

The Ranger idea was one I'd thought about, too. But perhaps the most relevant person hasn't shown up yet, or hasn't made up his or her mind. I think it should be the Ranger him/herself who decides what to do. It is as you say a risky scheme and one that needs careful thought.

Another way in which the Ranger revelation might help is that we'd be able to trust the words, and votes, of a few people and be less vulnerable to wolvish manipulation-a real danger now more than a third of us are wolves.

However, the wolves would also know who to attack.

Pros
two known innocents (plus self)
-no votes will be wasted on them
-nobody will resist their theories
-have better chance to find wolves

Cons
wolves know who the ranger is
-able to kill one who helps us villagers
-won't tell us anything with that kill

the chance before hand of getting a wolf is 3/8, of voting for a wolf is 3/7, and after is 3/6 for lynching and 3/5 for voting. All innocents will know they are wolves too...so they would have probability for them in the finding of a wolf. But is giving away the ranger who got us here and can keep us alive longer worse it?

Only the ranger should make the choice of giving up his or her live for the village though

I would be interested to see the phantom's view on this stratagem. It is the kind of cold, heartless, mathematical cunning which is so often his trademark.

Both the bitter and the bitter
 

Well, the phantom didn't-probably couldn't-take my hint to him to show up.

As it seems to me, the village's choice resembles the choice of Nargothrond after the coming of Turin.

Shall we keep quiet, stay as safe as we can, and trust to our Ranger's skill and our voters' lack of it? Eventually, that way lies our end; a slow, drawn out, ignominious demise. A poor death.

Or shall we grasp fate with both hands and challenge the wolves openly? It is very likely that in doing so, we go to our doom. But there is a chance of glorious victory; a larger one of glorious downfall, a tale that will be told around campfires to the sound of weeping and gasping, immortalised in song and in lament. Either way, I prefer it.

Mine is the choice of Turin, both the bitter and the bitter.

This werewolf cloak is genuine. This knife is Elven-crafted. It saved Marcolie Lamen's life last night, in a terrible battle with an unknown wolf.

I am the Ranger. Marcolie Lamen is innocent. Make of that what you will.

Innocents, please believe us at last. Rally to Marcolie and to me, in the last hours I have left with you before nightfall. Study our accusers and their motivations. Vote with us. And we may yet corner a wolf, and revive hope.

Day shall come again!

I don't have anything interesting to say right now so here are yesterday's votes.

Kitanna -> Kuruharan
Kuru -> Kitanna
Lalaith -> Kuru
spawn -> Boromir
Anguirel -> Boromir
Boromir -> Kitanna
Márcolië -> Kitanna
phantom -> Kitanna

Eonwe didn't vote.

I can't see anything obviously suspicious in the votes except maybe Lalaith's vote for Kuru but I'm not very convinced.

You know, we have to catch a wolf today or we'll be dead tomorrow. Although I completely agree that it's the gifteds' choice wether to reveal themselves or not, a couple known innocents could be quite handy, that's all.

Well I think that was brave of you, Anguirel. And obviously, unless someone pops up to say the contrary, I have to believe you.
So, do you have any ideas about what to do?

I want to hear what Spawn has to say on her reason for this Boro-Kitanna-Marcolie trio.

At one point I was said to be one of the most innocent ones here, then the night of Gil-galads lynching, I said if he turned out to be innocent I want to look at Spawn, and suddenly I'm in this wolf trio? It seems to me that I may have finally stumbled upon a wolf and she has tried to turn the tables away from her. But, I'm not near ready to make a decision.

I also must begin to question Kuru's leadership. It's about time somebody steps up, it seems as if his "suspicions" have all led us astray. In the beginning he suspects Spawn and Lalaith, and for some reason he changes his suspicions and is was vocal in lynching Gil, Wayne, and Kitanna. I want to begin taking a serious look at Kuru, and his motives. Yes, he's wise and experienced, and I had not suspected him up until yesterday, he seems more so today with Kitanna's innocence, where exactly has he been leading us? Not to lynching the wolves that's for sure.

These were my thoughts coming in after yesterday, I'm home for the rest of the day so I can get more into things later. And congrats to our Ranger.

...oh and looking at those votes that spawn drew up, I will now concur that Eonwe's failure to vote is suspect. Kitanna, an innocent, was heading for the gallows, so his work here was done.

Oops, just saw Anguirel revealing his identity, I trust him.

I just saw Anguirel's post. That's very brave from you, sir.

So, what shall we do now?

Three of these people are wolves:

Kuru
Lalaith
spawn
Boromir
phantom
Eonwe

I know I'm not one so it narrows my list to:

Kuru
Lalaith
Boromir
phantom
Eonwe

If Marcolie isn't the Hunter but just an ordinary villager, and if the Hunter reveals him/herself, we have 3/4 chance to pick a wolf today!

edit: lots of cross posting...

Kuru -> Kitanna
Lalaith -> Kuru
spawn -> Boromir
Boromir -> Kitanna
phantom -> Kitanna
Eonwe-no vote

We now have to accept that out of these five, three are wolves. So I'm sorry if I ruffle anyone's feathers...or fur. At least my declaration means I don't have to tread lightly to avoid losing the support of true-hearted innocents because of capricious urges of self-defence. I know I have behaved in a similar way-notably with regard to the phantom-but we have no time for it now. Reason must rule all.

dancing spawn of ungoliant, you are, you have to admit, in an extremely suspect position. Your theory is in tatters, with two of its participants acknowledged innocents. You did not force me, but you did persuade me, to vote for Boromir. Much earlier on you accused Marcolie on a very flimsy basis-which I temporarily seconded in order to compromise Marcolie and gain her as an ally. You held suspicion against me for a long time, but so did many others, so that is pretty irrelevant.

Your voting list is helpful, though your vague attempt to implicate Lalaith could be wolfish. Your tone-as usual-has been impartial, quizzical and collected. You are an obvious option, I must admit. Rather damningly, you lately made the assertion that the Ranger's testimony would not produce proven innocence without a Seer's confirmation-which is, as long as you trust the Ranger, patently untrue.

EDIT: Your suggestion of revealing the Hunter-who may well be needed later-also looks wolfish. My only problem is that I like your style, and am squaring you as a wolf with real difficulty...


Eonwe, you look as dangerous as ever. Your failure to vote looks like an attempt at avoiding voting for an innocent. And if you knew Kitanna was innocent...well...

You are my two main suspects for the moment. I will analyse the others soon. I need a slight break; the transformation from outlaw to latter-day Turin Turambar is rather draining. Give me some whisky, Boromir, please...

EDIT: This business breaks the heart and destroys one's faith in human nature. Boromir, Lalaith, and spawn have all accepted and congratulated me. Yet at least one of them has to be a wolf. It's sickening. I'm almost glad the foul beasts will take me tonight.

Anguirel's move was a very brave one. Thank you for both saving me and sharing your role with the village so everyone knows innocent stature.

I am not the hunter, so if the hunter feels like reveiling self we'll know three innocents.

Bzzzz! Wrong! I believe you had the honor of being one of the leading voices in lynching Wayne. I did not like the choice presented that DAY, but had to make sure there was no tie. Anybody who doubts me can please go back and read DAY TWO. You were at least as vocal against Gil-Galad as myself. And I did not vote for him on his death DAY.

For Kitanna I fully admit my role. But it seemed like a good choice at the time.

My suspicions of Boromir88 deepen.

Then it has been a constructive experience. :p

Boromir, I've said my reasons pretty clearly for my suspicions of you, Kitanna and Marcolie in my posts #284 and #290.

Anguirel, I believe you and I'm ready to follow any reasonable plan that you and Marcolie can provide. About this: I was nit-picking (hence the use of italics). They aren't officially proven without the Seer but, of course, if two people step forth and claim to be the Ranger, it's obvious that one of them is a wolf.
Umm, how?

I'm glad to answer any other questions you want to ask me but remember that I don't have much time left before I have to vote. So, any plans?

Kuru -> Kitanna
Lalaith -> Kuru
spawn -> Boromir
Boromir -> Kitanna
phantom -> Kitanna
Eonwe-no vote


Looking at this list there is also two separate parts.

Kuru, Boromir, and phantom all voted for the one who was lynched. It would have been very risky for all three of them to be the wolves. I strongly suspect at least one of them is innocoent and at least one is guilty.

Of the non-Kitanna voters. I have to agree that Eonwe and the lack of vote is suspious. But also this would be very outright of a wolf. I still feel he is very suspcious though.

Lalaith and spawn both also had the ability to do a wolf-wolf vote depending on whether Boromir or Kuru is a wolf.

So I suspect highestly either

Eonwe-Lalaith-Boromir
or
Eonwe-Spawn-Kuru

currently.
But I reserve all right to change my suspicions at any point.

This, combined with my vote (lack of, that is) yesterday are pretty much all the evidence you have mustered against me. (am i right, or just overlooking something?)

well, my rebutal of the above aplicable reasons (267) still stands, i beleive (again, unless i have missed something, i haven't been on much, sorry, in the last 2-3 days). as for my not voting yesterday, you say i didn't vote because i didn't have to, an innocent was already being lynched, right. that makes no sense, because i would leave the very trail your ranger eyes picked up. why not just go on the safe side and vote kuru, or some other low number? that is what i would have done if i was a wolf. i am not, and didn't vote because i was away.

that said, it is time to turn my attention to who is a wolf...

well, that wasn't too difficult. i will stick with the theory i have had all along:

kuru, and boromir. i haven't drawn a bead on the other, although im tempted to say Lalaith (but i didn't, so don't say i did).

as leaders of the group, i have a sneaking suspicion as to why we have been persuaded to lynch only innocents so far.

i think that is exactly what is happening. boromir has been all about his "jumping out the gate" jazz. i have been suspecting kuru throughout. if a wolf trio were to pull desperate bluffs throughout the game, who would you suspect of being guilty. i think these two fit the bill perfectly. (although now that i think of it, spawn would fit more in the "desperate bluffers" catagory

one last point: we have five suspects:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Kuruharan
Lalaith
the phantom

three of teh five are wolves. that means at least one of my trio is in fact a wolf.

one last thing: please, do not kill me. i don't really care if you had before, because innocents have to die to establish some points of reference. but you will all die if you do. don't say i didn't warn you. -please-

actually not :D this is the last: please enumerate your evidence against me. i don't hold with lynching people on "unhelpfulness". and i don't hold with cheating. and i was gone all day yesterday and had no time to vote. (i used this to defend two innocents, gil and zali. i would be the base master of treachury if i came out and lied about real life stuff. so my no vote yesterday cannot be held against me. that is all. don't kill me, and you won't kill yourselves....

10 minutes, guys... I really need to go soon.So, voting Eonwe would be a pretty safe choice? I'm more inclined to believe that the first three are wolves [A) my Boro-Kitanna-Marcolie -theory wouldn't be completely wrong B) I'm not on that list which instantly makes it more correct than the second possible trio]

Tell me, whom shall I vote for?

Argh, sorry for the double. I didn't see Eonwe's post. This sounds sincere to me. Besides, same goes for me.

So, can I vote for Boromir? Please, say something soon or I can't vote at all.

Post coming...

Now I am revealed, Eonwe, I can discuss another piece of evidence against you more openly-my theories, my guarding, and their results.

On the first night I chose to guard Boromir88, hoping that the wolves would not see what was to me a clear warning that Perky was the Seer-naming me as ranger, a sign which said "Guard me please", and which I rejected, hoping to guard him the night after. I had not voted that day, for reasons which I have described truly earlier.

On the second day I voted for Celuien but guarded the phantom. Celuien died. I was worried that the wolves had detected me on the basis of the Seer dream and were aiming where I would be least likely to guard. Perhaps they were, though if so I think I would be dead before now.

On the third night, having voted for Eonwe, I tested my theory by guarding him. Azaelia bought it instead. I was very glad; the wolves had fallen for phantom's distraction-dream. (Remembering this incident, the phantom becomes a far less likely wolf candidate, it must be admitted.)

And this, Eonwe, is also why I suspect you. I believe, had you been innocent, you ought to have died that night, not Azaelia. It's not foolproof, true, but it adds to the pile.

I've seen your defence, though, and it is good enough to make me pause. Momentarily.

The others:

Kuru -> Kitanna
Lalaith -> Kuru

The guilt of these two depends on Eonwe's, particularly Lalaith. Lalaith is more suspicious than Kuru, her rhetoric less blustering, her implications slyer and quieter. But she is a quiet, reasonable innocent too, in my experience. (She was a partner in "crime" some time ago, hem hem...)

Boromir -> Kitanna

Opinion swaying against him again. As Lalaith has become Eonwe's opposite, he has become spawn's. Each of my two major suspects therefore has a "foil". Interesting, and dangerous.

phantom -> Kitanna

On consideration, the decoy dream he advertised makes him unlikely. Possibly his suspicion of me was also protecting me. I will not vote for him.

This makes my most likely suspects-

spawn
Eonwe (good defence though, I'll have to think)
Boromir
Lalaith

with Kuru a possibility as well.

EDIT: spawn, vote away, but we'll still have to consider you, I'm afraid, despite the desperate need for unity.

I'm beginning to think the Hunter should come forward after all...

I was hoping not to have to do this
 

...everyone suddenly notices that Kuruharan actually spends most of his time fiddling with battleaxes, crossbows, and tactical nuclear missiles.

Wow. A lot has happened since I've been away.

Good job, Anguirel. Seeing as we are in desperate times, I would've come forward myself if I were in your shoes.

Unless someone comes forward and claims to be the Ranger, Anguirel and Marc are off my list.

Spawn- I don't know. She's flown under the radar most of the game and then jumped to the forefront of accusations yesterday. Is she a wolf making her move at the end?

Eonwe- He caused a Day 1 double lynching, but that could have been an accident. But more importantly, he has consistently been calling out Kuru, Boro, and I the entire game. Is that why we've been kept alive? With a wolf stirring up suspicion round after round then surely the village will eventually turn on us in fear. That said, perhaps Boro is Eonwe's partner. By lumping Boro with an innocent Kuru and I, perhaps the wolves figure if Boro dies then so do we, or if we die and are proved innocent then Boro might fall off of the radar. Also, I am amazed with the way Eonwe kept his cool and refrained from counter-attacking Anguirel. People who are entirely innocent usually don't act like that.

Boromir- For his possible wolfishness, see above. On the other hand I still think his sudden jump from not too guilty looking to lynching favorite might be a wolf plot, therefore I don't suspect him quite as much as Eonwe.

Lalaith- She's about the most under the radar person left. This makes me think that she might be a relatively quiet wolf, but at the same time she strikes me as an unsure innocent. Is it an act?

Kuru- On Day 1, he votes for Gil, who remains a strong suspect until lynched two days later, On Day 2, when Gil looks likely, he votes for Wayne, who dies. On Day 3, while Gil is busy getting lynched, Kuru sets up the next day's lynch victim- Kitanna. Also, all of the wolf kills thus far have been kills that didn't alter the course of the village. In other words, the wolves killed people who would not change suspicions, which would cause people who were set up the day before to move to the front of the lynch line. There is plenty of reason to suspect Kuru, however my gut tells me that he would have killed me by now if he was a wolf.

EDIT: I typed all that about Kuru before I saw he had come forward as the Hunter. I was right! He's not a wolf.

When it comes down to it, Eonwe is the most suspicious in my mind.

Thank you, Kuru, our chances just improved quite a bit. I think at least Lalaith & Boromir have to be wolves.
I'm not. Believe me. If you lynch me, you will lynch an innocent. That's all I can say to defend myself.

I need to go now. Quickly, shall I vote or not?

Kuru, well done. Villagers, he can still be of use if you tactically lynch him to give him a chance of wolf-killing-only do it if you're desperate though.

Eonwe does smack of sincerity somehow, but Kuru's revelation makes him look pretty silly...as it does Lalaith.

spawn's slowness to vote (possible non-vote) is not a wolf scrabbling, manipulating and taking advantage of the situation. It might be a wolf lurking off, tail between legs. It might be a confused innocent. I lean towards the latter.

So I'm left primarily with Boromir and Lalaith-my two foil suspects. Intriguing. Of the two of them, I'm quicker to suspect Lalaith (sorry m'lady), very touchy whenever investigation neared her. I shall examine her and Boro's record in the secretary's minutes.

EDIT: dancing spawn, VOTE!

My "ten minutes" just became a half an hour...

++LALAITH

I just thought that it'd be my responsibility to vote. Do what you judge to be the best thing to do. Best of luck!!

I don't get to kill anybody if I'm lynched.

?

She doesn't seem like the obvious suspect to me, but what do I know?

I, myself, would much rather vote for Eonwe or Boromir as laid out in my last post.

I thought I would be able to stick around until the end of lynching today, but I can't, so I'm going to have to cast my vote very very soon.

I trust Anguirel and Kuru, so if you want my vote to go a particular way- speak.

I for one prefer to wait and follow Anguirel's lead on the voting.
And while I now acknowledge my mistake going for Kuru yesterday, can I point out that innocents get it wrong too. We've all been getting it wrong, because we haven't killed a wolf yet. I can't really defend myself any more than that, because we've all been voting for innocents to die.

Really? The, er, town statutes have changed, evidently.

Anyone object if I follow dancing spawn of ungoliant and vote for Lalaith? I have half an hour before I must commend myself to Eru and the Gods, take confession, obtain absolution, draw my blade and wait for the wolves...

Actually, no, hang it, I trust the phantom more because of that blessed decoy dream...I'll vote for ++BOROMIR. We don't have such a long past together, and I feel happier about it, though Lalaith seems a bit more suspicious to me. Those who believe me, unite behind me if we are to beat the wolves. Wolves, unite behind me unless you wish to look stupid. Unless he's an innocent. In which case...oh, Orome take me. Good luck.

phantom, let Boromir be our compromise candidate. I started by guarding him, now I'm lynching him.

Do what you want.

If it was entirely up to me I would vote for Eonwe (like I should've done yesterday).

If either you or Kuru decide to vote for Eonwe then I will follow with my vote, but if not- well, I'm not sure.