I know I should be taking this more seriously, but I can't. I'm dying of laughter.

So you say that Eomerwolf had the luck to frame TWO gifteds? Oh, yes, very likely.

Edit: xed with Boro.

I know how you feel. :D

Bom, don't protect yourself tonight. The wolves have to kill me. Protect someone else, and then you will be free to protect yourself the following night.

We should officially call this game The Revels of the Reveals! :D

:D

A valiant effort, but it's all turned to absurdity for our dear Nerwen and Shasta. :smokin:

Well stranger things have happened. I should tell you about the time I got Fenris-lynched in Lommy's village. There's a good story of insane coincidences.

I'm also wishing there was a cobbler in this game, he/she'd be having a field day.

To have a third Ranger or Seer reveal? :D But by Eru, it would have been hilarious!

*lungs can't take it anymore. Dies* :D

Hotel does not in fact have free wifi. Probable last post from me. I will say that this is hard to do from a phone.

++Eomer

Hopefully you believe me. I'll be protecting Nerwen tonight, obviously. I protected Boro because after Eomer's last minute scam I thought it likely Boro would be hunting me and thus a perfect wolf target as he'd be useless, and I was right. The night Inzil died I was protecting Nerwen, of course.

Last post, phone dying.

Just as likely as Eomer "dreaming" two wolves, one right after the other, no?

Oh come on Shasta, I've done that twice and your record seering isn't terrible. It's not so unbelievable, don't try to pull that one passed me. ;)

Ah...I've read everything. As I said, internet is spotty to nill, to say the least.

I am terribly confused. Let me see if I have this right -

YesterDay, Eomer revealed that he was the seer by saying that Nerwen and Shasta needed to die.

Last Night, the wolves attempted to kill somebody and were rebuffed by the ranger.

ToDay, Nerwen says that Eomer is bluffing and SHE is the seer...

Bom says he's the ranger and protected Eomer.

Shasta then pops up and says he's the ranger and protected Boromir...

Brilliant. And unlikely. Well, obviously. Someone's lying, 'cause we can't have two seers and two rangers.

I'm going to do more indepth reading and see what I can figure out. Time is short, though.

-- Foley

Ok, I accept that there is a possibiliy that Eomer is lying - as unlikely as it seems. However, only the death of one of these people can prove and disprove all our theories: Eomer, Nerwen, Shasta, and Bom. Two claim to be Rangers, and the other two - Seers. The question is, which two? The other two are hence wolves. Either we'll be lucky and get a wolf toDay and another toMorrow, or get one toMorrow and the other the next Day.

Edit: xed with Foley

The problem is that if we kill the WRONG one today, we kill either a seer or a ranger. :eek: That'd be bad.

I meant to say this in my last post but forgot to: our biggest question right now probably is if we'd rather lose a Ranger or a Seer.

Edit: xed with Foley. You are correct in that. I'll try looking for some evidence on them.

I may or may not be on a little later to post and vote. I better be back to vote. :(

-- Foley

I'm back early! Yaaaay!

I'd say we can better afford to lose a Seer; not just because I'm one of the potential Rangers, but because if we kill the Ranger, the real Seer dies toNight anyway.

...Starting wit Bom! (I'm not quoting all the posts, just the ones that draw my eye)

His first post is a Ranger hint right off:

But he denies it here (probably having second thoughts about so obvious a clue):

"my mind seems to be on the more, as Nerwen says, talented actors" - such as Seers.

Then comes the Hunter vs Ranger debate.

Then Bom voted Boro, which is a switch from Shasta. I find this interesting, but I can't make anything out of it.

Day 2

Then he's happy that people call him weird (weird=gifted?).

Then this:

This post drew my attention for some reason. I can kinda see this as a paraphrased version of "I still don't want to reveal. You won't believe me anyways, until maybe I'll save someone at Night". But that could just be my imagination seeing clues where there are none.

Then Bom votes for McC "because Eomer's reasoning made sense".

Day 3

This is definitely a clue that Bom protected Eomer.

Then he agrees to lynch Shasta so that we have at east one known wolf.

Then he reveals.


...aaaaand Shasta!

Doesn't like Bom from the first post

Says

...in response to Bom saying that he'll make some incautious gifted comments

Then appears only to vote Glirdy to save Boro. Interesting.

Day 2

Then attacks me and Eonwe for not helping him save Boro.

Questions Eruhen:

Keeps justice?

Then votes me.

Day 3

Reveals and votes Eomer.




I'm sorry, Shasta, but as much as I tried I couldn't see and Ranger clues in your previous posts.

Stay tuned for the Seers...

Edit: xed with Bom. I see your point here.

Makes sense to me.

Meh, from my perspective, there's nothing to make from it. I didn't like some of the things Bom posted. I got abrasive, Bom fired back and thus revenge voting ensued. After the night to sit on it, I didn't think anything of it. As will be revealed all in good time, I actually hunted McCaber first night, because I found his vote the most out of place. And thus the next day was more willing to see Bom was possibly getting set up. Granted we got McCaber wrong, but at least, I believe right about Bom. He's not a wolf (but he's not the seer or hunter either :p).

It's just coincidence that possible wolf Shasta was the other person he was considering voting for on Day 1.

On general principles, the answer would be Ranger. The Ranger has to guess who to save based on the Day's discussion. While the Seer can guess wrong and dream an Ordo, they still get the knowledge that the person is an Ordo, while if the Ranger guesses wrong they have no effect. The main aim for the Ranger is to protect the Seer once they've revealed, and they rarely save anyone else.

On the other hand, in this game, it's much more complicated. If Eomer is telling the truth, then it's likely that the wolves went for him, hoping the Ranger would bluff and protect him the toNight. If this is the case, then Eomer will get killed toNight, so it wouldn't seem too bad to kill him now instead, as he won't get to tell us his dream anyway.

However, if Eomer is a wolf, then either they hoped the ranger would protect Eomer and voted for one of their own (very risky, and I don't know if it's really allowed-Lottie?), cementing Eomer as an almost known seer, as it would seem an unlikely option. On the other hand, this means that the wolves are unlikely to kill Nerwen, as it would prove them wrong, so if this is the case she is safe.

However, if Nerwen is the Seer, then the ranger could still protect her toNight, in which case it might be better to attack neither of the rangers...

I don't know, there's too much to consider...



The fact that both Rangers claim to have protected Eomer makes it seem more likely that he was saved, which in turn makes it more likely that he's either actually the Seer or an Ordo masquerading as one, for whatever purpose.

Also, though we have all our gifteds, I think the wolves are winning. At the moment, the worst case scenario means that we could end up losing both the Seer and the Ranger toNight.


On the other hand, it could be that all the reveals so far are ordos, or at least half of them, in an attempt to stop the real gifteds counter-revealing on claims that might actually have been made to protect the real gifteds in the first place. There are just too many possibilities to consider.

You make a good point, I didn't consider that. You're probably right.

Just quick correction Eonwe. Shasta claims as ranger he protected me last night.

New approach- The Pros and Cons of lynch-candidates:


Eomer- Claims he's the seer.

Pros:
- If he is proven to be the seer, then we have two known wolves, and also know the identity of our Ranger.
- If he is a wolf, we know who the seer is.
- If he really is not a wolf, it's most likely that he'll die tonight.

Cons:
- If he is the seer, we've lost our seer.
- If he is the seer, then the wolves will kill our ranger as well (assuming one of the revealers is a wolf).
- If he's a wolf, we don't know the identity of the ranger, and we have no known wolves from the seer (but the latter is just hopefulness, and shouldn't actually be considered in the same terms).

Ah, I must've been carried away with that post. I shall need to reconsider.

But we have a known wolf Bom who claims to have protected Eomer.

And I like your new approach! Seems a very effective way of summing things up!

By Nahal, what a mess!

Just when I thought I had things figured out, some yahoo tosses a wrench into things...

Need to make sure I lay my axe at the root of the right tree.

Nerwen- Claims to be the seer

Pros:
- If she turns out to be the seer, we'll gain two known innocents.
- If she is a wolf, it makes it likely that Shasta is too.
- If she is a wolf, we know Eomer's the seer. And though he won't live until toMorrow, we'll at least have the Ranger and another known wolf.

Cons:
- If she's the seer, we lose our seer.
- If she is the seer and we don't kill her now, she could stay alive until tomorrow because the ranger can protect her.
- If she is the seer and we kill her, the wolves can take out the ranger toNight without fear of being dreamed.

edit: Con: If she's a wolf, we don't know who the ranger is.

Unless they risked it all and actually voted for one of their own. Is this allowed Lottie?



edit: but yeah, he would practically be a known wolf, as that seems very unlikely. Just want to cover all possibilities.

Tum as Frodo
Foley as Sam
Sally as Merry
Eomer as Pippin
G55 as Fredregar Bolger
Shasta as Legolas
Eruhen as Gimli
Eonwe as Boromir
Boro as Gandalf
Bom Tombadillo as Tom Bombadil
Nerwen as Galadriel

----------------

Let me see.

Eomer - Seer
Bom - Ranger
Boro - Hunter

Nerwen - Wolf
Shasta - Wolf

And considering the interaction with Shasta & Nerwen yesterday, I think the following are probably innocent:

G55
Eonwe
Eruhen

Which leaves our last wolfy as Tum, Folwren or Sally.

I say it's Sally. :p

Bom- Claims to be the ranger

Pros:
- If he is the Ranger, it is almost certain that Eomer is not a wolf.
- If he is the Ranger, it's very likely that Shasta is a wolf
- Together, these heavily would imply that Eomer is the seer, and so we'd also have a likely second wolf.
- If he is a wolf, we almost certainly know that Shasta is the ranger, which means that Boro is an innocent.
- If he is a wolf, we know Shasta is the Ranger, which them means that Eomer is a wolf too, which means that Nerwen is the Seer and so we also have two known innocents.

Cons:
- If he is the Ranger, we've lost our ranger.
- If he is the Ranger, the wolves can easily kill the true seer as well.
- If he is the Ranger, we still can't be certain who the seer is.

Nerwen shall be first.

In response to Bom talking about Gifteds.

Then she disappers for the rest of the Day.

Day 2

Her opinion on the votes:

Then this post:

After this she questions Eruhen for a few posts, before voting him:

Day 3

... is mostly spent arguing against Eomer and trying to prove that she is the Seer, and then votes for him.

While Nerwen never directly accuses anyone of wolvery and always has a careful neutral tone, she just leave any stronger evidence that would point to her as the Seer.



aaaaand Eomer!

His first posts are not very important, and anyways are undeciferable. :p

Just a post I thought worthwhile to quote, as Bom claims Ranger...

Combined with this:

This being the second vote in the game, I won't put too much stress on this, but people have questioned it.

Day 2

First post:

"The immediate thing to take from this is suspicion of McCaber and Bom" - looking for the last wolf, it seems. Though can't really be considered evidence in favour of Seering.

"He's not the seer" - obviously, since he claims to be the Hunter. But the sureness with which Eomer says that...?

Some posts in between, and:

Then encourages others to follow suit, as he is curious about McC's role. And then he showers us with clues.

(with Eruhen's reply - "That's certainly interesting, Eomer, especially considering how last game turned out.")

Again, the sureness.

One more post about bing curious about McC.

Day 3

Tries to uphold his status as Seer, continues accusing Nerwen and Shasta, and says Bom is the Ranger.



From here, I say Eomer is more believable.

Edit: xed since my last.

So, so far, we have:

?Seerwen? --> Eomer
?Shastanis Rangerduin? --> Eomer

No surprises there, seeing as he tapped both of them yesterDay.

I think it's a good point, and considering this and Eonwe's Pros&Cons we should be able to decide on a candidate, and NOT have a four-way tie. :eek::rolleyes:

Shasta- Claims to be the Ranger

Pros:
- If he's the Ranger, we know that Bom isn't and so is probably a wolf.
- If he's the Ranger, we know that Eomer isn't the seer and is probably a wolf.
- If he's the Ranger, Boro is almost certainly innocent.
- If he's a wolf, Bom is most likely the Ranger, in which case Eomer is at the very least innocent, in which case Nerwen could be a wolf too.

Cons:
- If he's the ranger, we lose our ranger.
- If he's the ranger, our seer can also be killed toNight.
- If he's a wolf, we don't know for certain who the seer is.

Ok, I've just realised (as you can probably tell by the slight shift in my last one) that there are two situations which render my pros and cons useless:

1. Ordos have fake-revealed.
2. Both Bom and Shasta are wolves.


There's also the possibility that both Eomer and Nerwen are wolves, but I find it unlikely that the true seer wouldn't have revealed by now.

For anyone who's still wavering, here are the options:

1. Seer-Eomer spied two wolves with his first two dreams.

2. Wolf-Eomer fake-revealed as the Seer and implicated two innocents. It turned out that the two innocents he chose happened to be our Seer and Ranger.

Have to leave now. This will surely be my last post in the game, so: good luck villagers! Get that last wolf.

++SHASTA

May the Valar have mercy upon us! Not ANOTHER reveal!

Edit: xed with Eomer's vote. We'll get that wolf, by Eru we will!

Indeed!

Given Eomer's vote, I'll almost certainly be voting for Shasta, but I'll hold off on the act itself to hear more from the rest of the field (after all, voting early resulted in me going for the Hunter Day One!)

In fairness to Shasta's point, with 3 wolves and 3 gifteds, the statistical probability the seer picks 2 wolves the first 2 nights, is the same probability that you fake reveal and happen to pick 2 of the 3 gifteds.

With that said, I'm still believing Nerwen and Shasta crafted a convenient story in their night time wolfy discussion and thus their story, as amusing as it is...is full of baloney.

Yes, another reveal. I'm the seer, and I dreamed Inzil, Nerwen and Boro in that order.