So, I know we are all getting rather jumpy regardless of our allegiances but it would be interesting to know who you would consider putting your vote on at this point. Cards on the table now, and remember, no time to play around any longer...

Eomer? He's in vogue no doubt...

Pitchwife perhaps? He has had a smooth ride so far, despite some potentially suspect and shadowy activities...

Lottie?

Or me? On the account of this alleged cobblery?

No shadow has fallen on Aganzir either for some reason. Always worrisome though...

Nerwen?

Sally?

Well Skip, since you ask, I am of course not feeling good about anybody right now. I'm feeling worse about Sally and Loslote than anyone else; I am usually worried about Nerwen and always suspicious of Aganzir; and I'm afraid that the only reason I'm not worrying overly much about you and Pitch is that I don't know you as well as the previous two.

I think we'd all do well, though, to take a few minutes, breathe deeply, and consider every single one of the villagers rationally. There's a danger of getting tunnel-vision at this stage.

It's good advice for myself, certainly. :D

*applauds* Ooo, nice villainous conversational style you've got there, Skip. I do hope you're a baddie, now, because it'd be such a waste if you're not!;)

EDIT:X'd with Eomer.

Back
 

So it's 2-5 or 3-4, whichever way you prefer to put it... As several others have been saying, if we don't get either a wolf or the cobbler today, we lose.

In a way, yes - too bad for the wolves if the cobbler finds them innocent-looking enough to vote for one of them. But if both the cobbler and the wolves are alive tomorrow, well, they win. And at this point it's about as important to get rid of the cobbler as lynching a wolf is. It's really rather suspicious of you to try to save the cobbler (by saying that lynching her doesn't matter right now)...

Fortunately, that doesn't always work. If there's just one wolf left, also the remaining ordo might try to reveal as a wolf. Or the two remaining villagers might try to counter the wolves' claim and with good luck they'd succeed in fooling the cobbler. The biggest reason a surviving cobbler is dangerous is because she can vote for herself - after all, she counts as an innocent.

So you're suggesting we should ignore the cobbler because there's a chance the wolves might kill her?

I voted for you pretty randomly, but then you had bad reasons for suspecting me which made me actually suspicious of you. And calling me a possible panicked wolf? Nah. Me? Dear sally, you should know by now that if you want to suspect me without getting it thrown back into your face, your reasons should be extremely good. ;)

Elaborate.

I find it rather unlikely... It's good to have proper suspicions on people, but I agree it would really be quite daring to go after the same person three days in a row.

Pitch has a good point about skip voting for the same person as Greenie.

Sorry if I've missed something but why does Greenie's innocence make Eomer a wolf? I really don't like it how some people are pushing it... What happens if Eomer is innocent? We lose.

Actually, we do. Not as much as a wolf, of course, but if we think somebody is the cobbler, we should go for them.

Also, if somebody fake-reveals as the seer, I think the real seer should hold revealing till tomorrow... For one of the wolves, a fake reveal equals admitting to being a wolf, and I don't think they can afford that now, so if there's a fake-reveal, it's almost certainly the cobbler. Which means the wolves kill her tonight, and we get an extra day. ;)

I can most likely be around till DL too.

Grr I have no idea what we should do today... Personally I might consider lynching skip (getting the cobbler is better than nothing, and I'm rather positive that's him) and waiting an extra day before the seer reveals (if we get the cobbler - or a wolf - today, we're in the same situation tomorrow, except the seer has got one more dream), but then, I'm not a risk taker.

*shrug* Well, each is quite capable of daring tactics, that's true. And they could be working together. That's if it's not you, of course.

No voting until Agan and Pitch have shown up. We need to give the Seer a chance to reveal, if he/she chooses.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

Agan, I'm glad to see I'm not alone in thinking Sally's 'Green or Eomer' post was suspicious.

I would find it helpful if people could spell out why they think Skip is the cobbler; I've seen that alluded to a few times and I don't really grasp it. He's a bit, let's dig into the book of cliches, beneath my radar.

Go on, convince me.

Agreed. Let everyone speak.

Not voting:
Nerwen, Pitch and Lottie. I might change my mind after reading through their posts (because that's what I have to do some time today), but they've looked innocent enough thus far.
Eomer, at least not before I know why everyone suddenly wants to get him lynched. Yes I voted for him a couple of days ago, but that was only because I figured he'd be my best bet at saving wilwa (whom I thought innocent). I will probably have to read through his posts as well.

Might vote:
skip, probably my first choice.
sally, she looks somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's because she's actually a wolf this time or because I tend to look at sally through wolf-coloured glasses.

I'm going to go through skip's posts in a while and see if I can find anything else, but he's been making some comments that have sent chills down my spine. Comments that make me think "This is how the cobbler tries to address the wolves!" And Pitch brought up a good point about his voting behaviour being very similar to Greenie's.

If you think he's the cobbler you probably shouldn't be voting for him.

Okay let's get two things straight here.

1) I'm not trying to save the cobbler or claiming that we should ignore him/her. All I'm saying is that it would be much better to lynch a wolf than to lynch a cobbler. If we get a wolf toDay and especially if the Seer gets another dream and lives to tell the tale, the village will almost certainly win. If we lynch a cobbler, the wolves still have the advantage.

2) You don't know I'm the cobbler, although you might think you do. In fact I'm not.

Might do that later, no time now.

Only one way to find out, sweetie! Seriously though, don't lynch me, I'd do you no good. And I tell you this much: I wouldn't lynch you.

What? You think throwing out a tentative "maaaaaaybe Agan..." and then saying "but I actually suspect Eomer" (because that's what my comment amounted to) is suspicious? I'm afraid I don't quite follow you.

Why is this incriminating? I don't get it... If anything it looks like Pitch (or you in a lesser degree) is trying to frame me...

See, this is the sort of comment that makes us (or at least me, I won't speak for others) think you're the cobbler.

EDIT: xed with Skip

Well, there's this:

Skip, #216.
Nerwen, #217.
Skip, #218.

EDIT:X'd since Skip at #290.

Why? As long as we get a baddie today, it doesn't really matter whether they're a wolf or the cobbler. I'd rather we killed a wolf, but as it happens I don't have any strong wolf suspects while I feel pretty positive about skip's being the cobbler.

Yes it would be better. But lynching the cobbler wouldn't be much worse than lynching a wolf. It looks like you only want us to concentrate on finding the wolves, not the cobbler.

Is it a language issue or did he just admit being the cobbler?

I'd rather you did it if you're planning to cast suspicion in my direction.

Because it's remarkable how similarly you've voted with Greenie. It looks like you thought she's a wolf and decided to follow her in order not to lynch a wolf.

Seconded.

It does look like an overly defensive cobbler. And it's true - we can't know. Even the seer can't know. But we can make an educated guess, which in my case, happens to make Skip look cobblerish.

The cobbler is better than an innocent, yes– but unless we get a wolf toDay it'll be two wolves vs three innocents toMorrow, and possibly no more leads than we have now, if we spend the whole time cobbler-hunting. So the cobbler's a last resort only.


But hang on, would the cobbler want that, at this stage?

I think what Agan's asking there, though, is whether "You don't know I'm the cobbler" means "I am the cobbler (but you don't know it)".

No, no we shouldn't. Repeat, NO.

Six people. Three innocents, one cobbler, two wolves.

Cobbler dies. Three innocents, two wolves. ToNight an innocent dies. Two innocents, two wolves. Game over.


Tell me how you're thinking that lynching the cobbler makes sense again?

Also, I'd love to stick around and say more, but my lunch break is a bit rushed today, so I can't reply to everything I'd like to. That just really jumped out at me.

If he's the cobbler and would prefer to stay alive? You're right though, it doesn't really make sense... it's just the way he keeps pushing it.

Yeah, that's what I meant. If you used that kind of syntax in Finnish, it would be a confession. I'm not sure about English though - and then, skip himself isn't a native speaker either.

Like this: there are seven of us alive, not six. ;) Cobbler dead today + innocent dead tonight = two wolves and three innocents tomorrow.

*blink*

*blink*

*blink*

Okay, so I can't count. *blushes* I'd left myself out when tallying.

Still, if we can catch a wolf, we go for a wolf. A cobbler is better than an innocent, but they're still not a wolf. I don't like prolonging End Game, I like ending the game. And the only way to do that is to kill a wolf.


Blast. And now I have to go. *grumbles* I'll be back in five or six hours.

I read through the thread and would like to update my earlier not voting/might vote list with the following:

Definitely not voting Nerwen. This probably means she's a wolf after all, but I'm willing to trust her for now.

I can't really put my finger on it, but it looks like there might be a connection between Pitch and Lottie. Their thoughts just seem to run along the same lines. After a quick reading, I'm not too concerned about them, but even though I'm not likely to vote for them, it's not a definite no.

I have no idea what I should do with Eomer. Before making up my mind, I'd like to hear some explanations from those who said either him or Greenie must be a wolf.

Sally doesn't look as bad as I remembered, but she doesn't look exactly innocent either.

I will go through skip's posts now.

Okay, I've got lots of things happening at the same time now, so no time for this cobbler-bickering I'm afraid. Not that I'm overly interested in it either, unless it will prove necessary get the noose off my neck.

Could be on and off for about an hour, then I gotta go. Will almost certainly be back before DL though.

Any support going after Pitch?

Would like to see him make an appearance soon in any case...

Okay, not voting Pitch toDay obviously (points to admin thread) and here's my heartfelt sympathies. Take good care of your family!

skippler
 

I already talked about this, but I think it would be quite a convenient hint from the cobbler to the wolves.

On day 1, he votes for EW who had made one post so far, saying the timing and phrasing of the post looked sinister.
I know I'm not the best person to talk about day 1 voting, but I think there's a difference between voting more or less randomly and voting for somebody who has only made one IC post & trying to give actual reasons for the vote. The vote makes skip almost certainly not a wolf (it would be quite a bold move to vote for a fellow like that), but I think it looks much more sinister than EW's first post. Poor skip if he's the cobbler, it must have been horrible for him to start a bandwagon against a wolf and have to worry about the wolves attacking him after it...

His 124 is an analysis on day 1's voting, and he seems rather careful not to have too strong opinions on anybody. He semi-defends Greenie and flip-flops on Fea (questioning her lack of mentioning self-defense when she voted for EW). His conclusion is that wilwa and sally look more suspicious for defending EW. Quite understandable but I can but disagree with him - if they were wolves, would they really have tried to stop him getting lynched?

Then there's some theoretical stuff about the EW lynch, and he attempts to explain some comments of his that didn't really make sense. He's been kind of sloppy with the stuff he says, anyway, being often quite ambiguous. I still don't know what he meant when he said he doesn't trust Eomer in any way.

On day 2, he considers voting Pitch (to introduce a new candidate besides Lottie, wilwa and sally), wilwa or sally. He says I'm clearly evil but adds he isn't sure my role in this game is evil. That's a weird comment, it could be put down on flattery (he knows how I like being evil) but there's also something tentative about it, as if he was trying to drop a hint to me... Kind of acknowledging "I think you're evil but let's keep it a secret between the two of us".

He jumps on Eomer's point about Lottie being quiet, pointing out that she's really different from the previous time he played with her. I might add that last (and only) time I played with Lottie she was all over the place and really confident - and she was a sheriff who could share her opinions with her fellow sheriff. Skip played in that game. I expect a player's ordo (or alone working gifted) behaviour to be the norm, and assume Lottie isn't so certain about people's roles in every game she plays... So it seems skip is accusing her of "being normal", if you know what I mean.

Then he votes for wilwa, saying he feels bad about jumping on a bandwagon but wants to "trust his original impression". So, what was this original impression? And what the heck is this comment about?
On to day 3... His reaction to my vote for him is weird if he's the cobbler, arguing there's no sense in voting for the cobbler because she can be both harmful and useful to the wolves. If he's the cobbler, one would expect he actually wants to get lynched. Although hmm, arguing so doesn't really tell anything about his role because if he consented to die without a fight, it would be too obvious he was the cobbler and there are probably still some people around who think killing the cobbler is far from being a priority.

Again. What?
He adds it's much more important for the wolves not to kill the cobbler than it is for the villagers to find her. Trying to drop hints to the wolves again: "Hey it's important you guys don't kill me!"?

He suggests there were no wolves in the wilwagon because it would've been convenient for the wolves just to sit back without getting their hands dirty. Nerwen, Greenie and skip himself voted for her. By then, his pattern of voting the same way as Greenie had already come into being. Also, he and Nerwen had had the short exchange about keeping the cobbler alive (see above). It's possible he thought he had hit both the remaining wolves... Because it really seems like a stretch to say the wolves would behave in a certain way in a certain situation. Way too simple. Okay, we already know Greenie was innocent, and I feel rather good about Nerwen too, but the way skip put forth his theory really looks like he had a hidden agenda.
He analyses the votes that came after his vote for wilwa but doesn't reach any definite conclusions: everything could go either this way or that. He ends up following Greenie's example and votes for sally.

Today he opposes lynching the cobbler. Yes, of course it's better if we catch a wolf, but even the cobbler is enough, and if we have a strong hunch about the cobbler, I think we should go for it (surprise anybody?).

Is this supposed to mean "You don't know that I'm the cobbler" or "You don't know if I'm the cobbler"?
Plus what he said to Nerwen. He looks like the cobbler who thinks he's found a wolf and tries to signal to her.
If you're innocent, you should try to convince me it's a bad idea to lynch you instead of just ignoring me. Seriously.

I'm going to have a break now but will check in every now and then. I seriously consider voting for skip spence at this point, unless I get a better idea.

In retrospect I agree. Voting Wilwa was a proven mistake and I'm not really into lynching Sally either at this point.

Simple as. At that point I didn't trust him at all. Without saying that I suspected him in any particular way either.

It was flattery alright and I'm also flattered by your long and interesting analysis. But I feel that you are baiting me (and although I'm dying to respond in like fashion) I'm not falling for it.

There are two wolves out there and I'm not one of them. Don't think Agan is one either.

Okay, I'm going out for a few hours now. Will almost certainly be back. Be cool now!

I am not. I don't expect your reply to be as lengthy as my analysis of you, but you got to face it, you look very much like the cobbler. If you're innocent, you're harming us by refusing to answer to my points against you & trying to make me look like I was making a mountain out of a molehill. Was there nothing you'd like to clarify, or did I get everything right and you're now trying to hush it down? :p

Interesting analysis, Agan. One of the best I've read in a while. Doesn't mean you're right or wrong, mind; I just enjoyed the style. :p

My problem, which I've been struggling with for a couple of hours, is that I suspect Loslote more, but fully expect there to be more support for lynching Sally (I'm talking about my two main suspects here).

Still, in my opinion, Loslote deserves to die. She made, to my mind, a vague gifted hint to make critics (skip & myself) back off - to back off from fairly legitimate questioning of her playing style, may I add. A style which seems to have changed since then (as the village has grown smaller and her role thus more prominent, I will concede).

She obviously survived this gifted hint.

She then made another vague gifted hint, saying that she was a thousand times more sure of my guilt than Aganzir's (that could be a paraphrase but those were basically the words). If she says that about any other villager, I'm voting for him/her, because that looks seerish to me. However, I'm in the privileged position of knowing that she is either making absurd claims about a blind guess, or actually lying.

Because of the stakes, I think she's lying. That's why she gets my vote.

But I do guess that Sally's the other wolf.

++LOSLOTE

And now bedtime.

If Eomer is a wolf, why did Fea die instead of Lottie or sally? Especially Lottie has been pretty hard on him... And I imagine the wolves would like to get rid of a possible seer even if it incriminated one of them.

Votes:
(Pitch - most likely no vote)
Eomer - Lottie

I think it's freaking hilarious that Eomer suspects the two people who have been going after him the most. I'm just saying.

I'm back (obviously) but the next hour or so I'll be on and off. After that, I'm here and ready to kill a wolf. Let's get at this, people. No more of this "you're the cobbler, I want to kill you" rubbish. I won't stand for it. We're killing wolves.

If you're innocent yourself, the only thing you know for sure is your innocence and therefore you know that everybody who suspects you is suspecting an innocent. I'm not saying Eomer is innocent, I'm saying it's perfectly understandable he suspects those who suspect him.

I don't know about you but I'm killing baddies, regardless of their exact role.

Now that you're here, sally, would you care to tell me why you thought either Eomer or Greenie had to be a wolf?

No, you're not. It's not the same. Killing a cobbler gets rid of someone with an evil alignment, but the cobbler isn't killing us. Killing the cobbler takes our innocent numbers down by one, regardless of their intentions. And no, I'm not saying that we should leave the cobbler alive if they're found, but our priority is to kill wolves. I can't understand why you're arguing this point.



As for Greenie and Eomer, process of elimination, to be honest, that and the way Greenie had been acting with our exchanges, etc. I'll admit, Eomer is more of an opinion based on feelings than concrete evidence, which is another reason I voted Greenie yesterDay rather than him.

Really, you should have been in that category as well, especially now with your "lynching the cobbler is just as good as lynching a wolf" theory. Skip may be the cobbler, but if so I won't be lynching him toDay. We need to get, repeat, A WOLF. Anyone who's not on board with that plan is either evil or possibly the cobbler him/herself.

Yes, but the fact that he seems to have no other real suspects? Come on now.

Because I have found somebody who I'm pretty sure is the cobbler while I haven't found anyone whose wolfishness I feel sure enough about.

That doesn't really tell me much...

Lynching the cobbler you're fairly sure about is just as good as throwing a blind guess at somebody who might or might not be a wolf. I don't really understand why you have an issue with this - especially as I think I've said several times that you're probably my second option if I don't vote for skip. Or are you the cobbler yourself? :p

Or the cobbler. Tell me who's a wolf and I might vote for them, but as long as I don't have a strong suspect, skip is my first choice.

Is that so unheard of?

If we don't kill any baddie toDay, though, it's over, unless the wolves Night-kill the cobbler. (On the other hand, if we do kill the cobbler, we'll be in the endgame toMorrow.)

Incidentally, I'd like to point out to Agan that if Skip is the cobbler, I can't be a wolf, because if I was....well, dang. And I thought Shasta hated me. :rolleyes:

*snuggles her Shastasicle*

EDIT: x'd with Nerwen

And tomorrow the seer will have had another dream (assuming the wolves don't kill them). I'm not risking losing the game now - even though I don't have a strong opinion on who's a wolf, I'm rather positive lynching skip can't do us much harm.

I'm too lazy to think this through so I'll just ask you to explain the joke to me. :p

Fair point. But Agan's actively trying to lynch the cobbler. It's not her failsafe plan, it's her plan plan. She has NO other suspects? I don't believe it. I think she's hiding behind her "lack of real suspects" to either lynch the cobbler (assuming that's what Skip is) or to lynch an innocent under the guise of trying to prudently lynch the cobbler. Either way, bad.


Also, this....

EVERYONE is a blind guess at wolfdom, in a way. And regardless of her suspecting innocent me, she clearly is saying here that she suspects me of being a wolf. If that's the case, shouldn't I be her first option, not her second, especially when her first is the cobbler?


I'm not saying that wanting to lynch the cobbler is evil, but when Agan doesn't even seem to be trying to come up with better candidates, it looks like a copout.



Oh, and are we again forgetting that Agan chose to vote me out of myself and Elf? I still think that's pretty suspicious, thanks very much.


EDIT: x'd with Agan