I'll look Rune's posts over. (Not phantom's. I mean, come on!)

In other news, I think the narration indicates both Lovers are still alive.

First thoughts.

tp was mostly occupied with his scheming, not wolf-hunting. He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me. His innocent list contains exactly four people as well, interestingly. If he was the seer, he would have left some hidden hint as to which two of those four people were actually guilty. I don't see one, however. Maybe it's somewhere I didn't look.

But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.

The voting yesterDay was interesting. A bunch of odd votes for Formendacil, then the bandwaggon for Aganzir, which was overtaken by the Nogrod express train.

Form giving himself the third vote makes it very unlikely that he's gifted (I think I may say this much openly), but I also think it makes it unlikely for him to be a wolf. Very risky move there, and without any pressure.

Aganzir remains suspicious to me, which, before Nogrod started receiving votes, makes me wonder why none of her mates voted for Form. Maybe they already voted earlier, maybe they were waiting, or maybe she's not a wolf after all.

In any case, I think the early Nogrod voters are actually quite innocent-looking at the moment (yes, I know, wolves hunt wolves in this game). There were simply easier targets available to them at that point.

I'm grasping straws a little. :rolleyes:

My thoughts too! :D

I do agree with Rikae and was thinking that the Nog vote came out of the blue and was very quick to be picked up on. Those things tend to bother me. Here was Tummy's last count and I will add Sally...

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

Sally sealed the fate but there was a lot and very quickly that led up to that. Agan looked like she would by lynched with 5 votes to everyone else who was maxed at 3 with Form (odd choice too) and then suddenly Nog got 5 votes to pass her up. I didn't think Nog looked all that odd to me. Agan looked at least a bit odd with the Lommy back and forth thing.

I'm trying to determine what this all means and I guess I'm talking myself though it by typing it out. We did have a couple of no votes. I think Gwath ( no post), Nerwen and Green...any others? I understand Day 1 can be a bit crazy but the no vote bothers me too. I suspect Gwath was busy or didn't realize it had started, so there is a pass card. However, Greenie, if I remember, came in sounded reasonable, was safe in her posts and left without a vote...odd to me.

x'ed with Sally Nerwen and Mac

Well, Number-cruncher, what do the odds say that none, one, or both victims were wolves?

the phantom did paint a large bulls-eye on his back:

A look at the Rune Son:

Post 35: Backs everything that the phantom had just said about giving the dead thread options and about tying the lynch on Day 1.

Post 79: Garbage post about the amount of conversation. Still mentions being in favor of phantom's plan.

Post 93: Again trying to get a drawn vote, using our lack of previous Day 1 success as evidence.

Post 101: Thinks little of Kant.

Post 105: Critiquing Rikae's point of view as to how wolves are Fenris'd on Day 1s.

Post 106: Criticizes Nogrod's pro-lynch arguments as overly emotional.

Post 108: Votes Formy "because he volunteered", and immediately regrets it in the same post. I think he was trying to draw the vote here as he said he wanted.

So the village lynches Nogrod, and the wolves in the night kill the two people who seemed to disagree with him the most. Or at least one who disagreed and one who backed his arguments. I'm still not sure what to make of it, to be honest.

Yeah, that post was what I immediately thought of this Morning when I saw the lists. Some form of dramatic irony or something.

Sorry for the delay. I got hugely distracted (and also sleepy).

Runesky

Speaking here in (albeit mild) support of tying the lynch vote, which I still find a suspicious stance to take (more on why in a moment). He is also in favor of empowering the dead, which strikes me as neither innocent nor guilty.

Bolding mine. Especially given his clarification here, I find his support of the no-lynch idea rather suspicious. Rather than take the chance of getting a baddie, he prefers we kill no one until the wolves strike in the Night. Better to kill no one at all than to have the possibility of a wolf being killed. (I'm stretching slightly, but note that he never mentions we could lynch an innocent by mistake. He only mentioned baddies.)

"I'm going to vote Form, but I don't want him to die." :rolleyes: In fairness, no one wants to see anyone go on Day 1, but it is of course necessary. Still, stating it in that way doesn't sit right with me. I have a couple of ideas on why this exchange may have occurred, but with so little information, it's impossible to get a better feel for the situation.

Conclusion: Where wolf? (I'm leaning toward thinking he was sniped by one of the wolf packs for being a potential rival.)


x'd since my last

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight

You want the odds? You can't handle the odds!

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.

Rune

#35.
Okay, so from his very first post he advocates a deliberate tie. (Is also in favour of the plan for communicating with the Dead.)

#79.
Banter. Contains a line about how he enjoys “killing Europeans”. This is clearly a joke in context (referring back to Agan and morm's exchange at #67, #69), but I suppose a very paranoid pack might have jumped on it.

#93.
Stronger support than before for the non-lynch. Gets all sarcastic.

#101.
Banter with Greenie. Might possibly have been taken as a hint or code of some kind. (I doubt it is, though.)

#105.
Sceptical of the possibility of “intelligent” Day One voting.

#106.
They must be having an interesting time in the Dead Thread...:D

#108.
Second vote of the Day (first was Nilp's inevitable self-vote). It is also the only post of seven in which which he actually *says* anything, other than banter and arguing for a deliberate tie. As you
see, he expresses suspicion of Greenie and Nog, especially the former, but votes Form “because he volunteered”; stresses that he does not actually want Form lynched, and that he does not “really” suspect Greenie. This is fairly typical behaviour for a nervous Seer who has not yet dreamed a wolf and is afraid of dying early (which Rune often does) and having his words twisted after death. Taken with his jumpiness and obsession with the dangers of the lynch, I would say Rikae is likely correct that he was killed as a “gifted”. (An alternative, assuming #79 was taken as a double-bluff, was that he was killed a rival wolf.)

Further discussion points: If so, were the wolves right? And is Rik just guessing why he was killed, or does she know? (Really: it’s surprising how often a wolf will helpfully explain the reasoning behind the Night-kill…)

Edit: x'd since morm at #243; clarification; wrongly attributed opinion; highlighting.

I wrote this prior to the Day starting, but I don't think the results of the Night change anything, so I'm just leaving it and going to bed...

Okay, I’m going to try and make some sense out of a lot of half-formed thoughts and erratic notes taken by hand while perusing the Day 1 conversation on my phone.

I spent a fair amount of time thinking about the proposal to tie the vote yesterDay – who was for it, who was against it, the reasons they gave – and why either a wolf or an innocent would be interested in tying or not tying the vote. So:

Why an innocent wouldn’t want to tie: 1) Get the dead thread up and going more quickly, since it’s likely to be dominated by innocents and is a key source of knowledge in the game; 2) No chance of killing a wolf and advancing the game.

Why an innocent would want to tie: 1) Zero risk of accidentally lynching a gifted; 2) Keep the population of the village up longer; 3) Gain more information from Night 2’s activities so that lynching can be a (slightly) more educated decision.

Why a wolf would not want to tie: 1) Extremely high odds of lynching an innocent (ordo or gifted), or a wolf from another pack – since they know exactly who they want alive and dead and can steer the vote.

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)

So, that being said, the people that stand out to me as most suspicious:

loslote: Starts rather ambiguous about the idea of a tie (post #22), then becomes adamant that it is a bad idea (#48, #54, #202). Also, concern about trusting the dead thread could be construed as suspicious (since it’s likely to be a majority of innocents with some knowledge, wolves wouldn’t want to leave anything up to them) (post #28, #54).

Macalaure: Also anti-tie, which is not instantly condemning. He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who – no pointing fingers, but still substantial posting (though he does make a list of his suspicions (#131)). Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent. Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me. [Overall, I’m not convincing myself here, but earlier when I was taking notes I was getting bad vibes from his posts… so really just not sure.]

McCaber: Mostly this quote: “Any lynch is still better than no lynch in my book, so out of those who I dislike Agan has the most realistic odds of not leaving a tie.” Sorry, but no. Maybe I’m misunderstanding his meaning, but this struck me really badly.

Meh. All of this seemed a lot more substantive in my head earlier. My intuition for wolves is also notoriously bad, but hopefully this is at least a little interesting or helpful.
-----
Addendum: I definitely think the vote yesterDay bears looking into - seems very bandwagon-y to me (both Nogrod's sudden downfall and the pile-up on Agan), but I haven't had time to look into it myself.

Also, wouldn't it be funny if all three of the people in the Dead Thread were wolves? Wishful thinking, I guess...

I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.

Really? I was making more of a general observation rather than saying "I think Rikae is a wolf because of this", though I suppose I could have worded it better.
Actually, if anything's raising flags for me, just based on that line of reasoning, it's this post of Macalaure's (which appeared while I was doing the Runealysis, but which I didn't read properly, or I would have included it):

The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific. Of course one does try to look at things from the wolfish point of view, but Mac here seems to be slipping into it a little too easily for my liking.

This is me not ordering the Dead around (like I can tell Nog, phantom, or Rune what to do), but I'd bet a pretty penny they'd uncover phantom's role toNIGHT.

Now that I think about it, Nogrod feels less evil, but more stubborn? (With the way he opposed the plan, I chuckled at the thought of leaving him in charge of the Dead thread, at least for a NIGHT.) Anyway, surely, no one can be that blatantly evil, especially in a game like this, where losing one of the Pack would put the rest under immense pressure to catch an opposing Baddie. Probably.

Of course, this line of reasoning should also exonerate Agan's fumble, but a slip of the tongue is one thing, and a determined and blatant effort to oppose something that's obviously for the village is another. It's hard to imagine someone being so glaringly evil, but a slip of the mask is still possible.

Just checking in. I've decided on a posting project today (nothing too fancy, so don't get too excited) but it's gone one in the morning and it took me far too long to even articulate this post, so I'll get to it in the morning. Night, everyone.

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. :rolleyes: As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

Odd to me too, I can tell you. I thought I'd go brush my teeth and then come back to vote before turning in, but instead I somehow forgot to vote and went to sleep! :o I plead being sick. Speaking of Gwath though, is he even playing? I mean, has he confirmed it? His only post in the Admin Thread was something like "I want to. I really shouldn't."

I have a ton of stuff from yesterDay and toDay I wanted to comment on, now off to check how much of it is still relevant!


EDIT: x.ed with Nilp and Shasta

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

Edit:x'd with Greenie and my shining star.. Oh, darling, don't go! I miss you...

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. :Merisu: )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...

No, not between morm and Rune. That suggestion was an off-the-cuff guess - I hadn't gone back and checked. They don't really interact much, if at all, which leads me to believe that, if they are packmates, it is not morm himself who is implicated by Rune's death, but rather the third packmate - Greenie, maybe, if Rune decided to throw out a bit of very light wolf-on-wolf, or Form, if he really went heavily wolf-on-wolf. Now, of course, I've moved into speculation, but that would be my guess as to why morm responded to Sally the way he did.

Besides his response to Sally, though, looking through morm's posts, I found that he and Rune played a very similar game in a lot of respects. Both hung back, both cast basically throw-away votes (Rune for Form, with the intention of tying, and morm for Mac, both very early on in the game), and both chose an side on the Dead thread debate and occasionally reiterated their support of that side, without actually getting their hands dirty. I could easily see them being a pair of wolves who wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

Of course, this could (and, honestly, probably is) just be wishful thinking. I would very much like to be one wolf down with another in sight. I definitely suspect morm, but I'll take a look at other people as well to try to avoid tunnel-visioning on him.

First off I owe an apology to Lommy. Her original post doesn't look as offensive now that it's not 2 am anymore. In any case, I didn't mean to paint you as stupid or insignificant and am sorry I came across that way (I said ThinLOLmien because your long paragraph about me made actually me go "LOOOOL what the hell's she saying").

However, I still think she blew my joke way out of proportion - and in two stages too, with the initial "OMG WHAT did I just see ttyl" and then the long (given circumstances) analysis of why my reaction to morm's joke means I'm a wolf. If it had just been the former (as a way of expressing confusion) I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow, but the way she continued, she actually seemed gleeful to find something to latch on and that's really quite fishy. Her excitement about my supposed slip just looks fake.

I'm not sorry Nog was lynched, even if his level of suspiciousness is usually directly connected to how late it is here. I'm okay with Rune's death as well as he made me uneasy, but it saddens me that phants is gone. And no, wolves don't shoot for the kind of target he painted on his back (come on, the phantom saying "kill me" could be a bluff^5 or a dozen other things).

Anyway, the night kill proves one thing - phantom and Rune weren't wolves together. They had about zero interaction so knowing this does little for us, but there.

And folks, we should keep in mind that whatever goes on in the Dead Thread, timezones make it more likely that phantom has the final say - at least for toDAY. (The perks of being the only American among dead Europeans, heh heh. :smokin:)

I love that Macalaure took the trouble to consider that I might be a gifted before he decided to vote for me. He doesn't sit right with me at all.
Your point being? This is a weird thing to say.

I've never played with Firefoot before so it feels daring to say this, but she feels quite innocent to me.

I'm in an all-day strategy meeting so apologies if I at any point get distracted halfway through a sentence.

Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?

Edit: x'd with Lottie and Agan.

Elaboration (see how I ended my last post :rolleyes:): I don't know if anybody is doing it seriously, but it seems lazy to suggest he was killed for saying "Kill me". I don't think he was killed for looking like the seer (although putting me on the top of his innocent list made me wonder at the time :smokin:) but rather for being a dangerous player with good plans.

I kind of feel good about sally too (shocking I know!). I'm not sure she would have supported a no-lynch if she's a wolf, and most of all I can't see wolf sally voting to save me, knowing our history.

I find it unlikely we saw any wolf-on-wolfing (within a pack) yesterday. Now that lynch results are not immediate (and we can never find out every player's role anyway, even in the Dead thread, there are just too many deaths), it just doesn't make sense to make yourself "look better" by suspecting a fellow, especially as you can also spend your time genuinely hunting for other wolves. If there is wolf-on-wolfing, I think its goal is to sow very minor doubts to keep the other pack off your fellow's neck.
However, being careful to distance yourself from your fellows may come naturally to many players even when it's not necessary - I remember my fate in Duelling Wizards 2 being sealed by a packmate's vote, while to all intents and purposes they could've saved me without looking worse for it as the village had no idea we even knew of each other.

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature :D and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.

Just have to add my voice to the choir of "I'd love to see the dead thread now" with Nog and the phantom arguing and/or coming up with a master plan and Rune's head exploding. :D *waves*

At work now, but once I can slack a little more I'll be back to comment posts from late yesterDay and early toDay...


edit: xed with Agan's latter post

I'm wondering about that myself- I'm reading through yesterDay and there are interactions that *look* like "normal" wolf-on-wolfing- morm's with Mac, for example, and also Rune's vote-post could be read that way (c.f. Lottie above), and yet there probably isn't much point to it in this game. But as you say, it might be habit.
.Edit:x'd with Lommy.

I still have doubts about one thing regarding the scheme of agreeing signals for the Dead Thread vote (as in, empower X if Z was guilty, empower Y if Z was innocent, and so on). There was talk about putting choices for the dead "in different bandwagons" for increased flexibility, which I think is absolutely necessary for something like this to work. I am doubtful about the timing, however. In order for this to work, the living would have to have more or less voted first for there to be any "wagons" to place the choices for the dead in. At the same time, Agan's hypothetical point about Europeans in the Dead Thread was a valid one (especially as, at present, we do seem to have a European majority there): the deadline is 5 AM Finnish time, an hour or two less for the Danes and Brits and whoever else. Which means that European dead people can't really be expected to be around to wait for the village's instructions on which people in which wagons they should cast their votes to in order to relay a message. Can we realistically expect the village to (at least almost) finish voting hours before the deadline? Or would the dead leave their voting entirely in the hands of whoever of them happened to be around at deadline, whether wolf or not?

Also this.

Then to Agan and Lommy's spat. First, we should bear in mind that those two are old friends and thus very good at annoying each other, and it was absurd o'clock at night so both were probably tired, too. I'm saying this because I think why it escalated had as much to do with these two factors as with werewolf. That isn't to say there wasn't other stuff going on too, though.

Basically, the whole thing started with this post by Agan:
This relating to her earlier "if we only kill Europeans" line. Lommy's argument is as follows:

So Lommy wasn't saying Agan's "me and my wolf pack" was a slip (which would be a stupid argument) but rather that her interpretation of morm's comment suggests a wolfish perspective. To which Agan reacts with these:
This seems like a very strong reaction to an argument that may or may not have been correct but was, at least by Day 1 standards, decently reasoned. The question is, though, whether all of it can be attributed to Agan being tired and having a temper. It is also unclear whether she mistook Lommy's meaning or whether she presented it in that light to make the case look shoddier than it was - for Lommy wasn't suspecting Agan because of the "me and my wolf pack" but because of her interpretation of morm's comment.

Lommy starts getting annoyed too, and to be fair I can't really blame her:
Possible interpretations, then? Wolf-on-wolf? Not likely. They got too genuinely angry with each other, and besides, I don't think an open fight with a packmate would be a sensible strategy in this game, at this point. Wolf-on-wolf between wolves from different packs? Possible. Innocent-on-innocent? Sadly also possible. Wolf and innocent? If one of these two is a wolf I think Agan is a likelier candidate. Lommy started with an argument against Agan, then got offended by the belittling way Agan talked about her. (This might happen with Lommy whatever her role so I don't think it tells us much about her alignment.) Agan, meanwhile, got offended by being suspected on what she thought were flimsy grounds - which, while annoying, shouldn't provoke a reaction quite that strong. I also agree with Cabbie and Shasta that Agan's retaliatory suspicion of Lommy looks a bit off. Of course it's possible that an innocent Agan mixed personal feelings with suspicion (that does happen), but I don't know if she would really fall into that trap. However, trying to turn a personal quarrel into something other players could latch onto is something an Aganwolf might want to do.

Another thing - wolves have no more reason to grasp at straws in this game than anyone else. A wolf making up a case just to look like they're suspecting somebody doesn't make sense because they, too, need to hunt wolves. And as for genuinely making a case on (too) little evidence, that can be done by wolves and innocents alike. Therefore, "she's grasping at straws" isn't a very strong argument against anyone in this game.

You lost me here, Legate. Defensive of what? It was not meant in what way?

Awesome, can I now join the esteemed club of people who get suspected for their use of smileys? Also, "she had reasonable points, but she is not stupid" is probably the best thing anyone's ever said about me. Seriously though, all I can say is that suspecting me because I act nice is rather like suspecting you because you write long, confusing posts. Oh wait. I've actually seen people do that. :rolleyes:


EDIT: x-ed since my last. Writing a novel takes ages! I think I understand George R. R. Martin better now.

So do we want to try some measure of phantom's communication plan toDay, or hold off until they might know someone's role and try again toMorrow? The exact message might have to wait until we have some votes in our own thread for us to see what our potential options are.

Nothing to communicate yet. They've gained quorum just toDAY (three Dead people) and will start scrying people only toNIGHT.

OK, Sally, morm and Lottie, possibly the most interesting thing to have happened toDay this far. Basically, Sally suspects Rune (R.I.P.) and concludes her analysis of him with a suggestion that he was killed as a potential member of a rival wolf pack. Morm thinks this is an odd conclusion and says it's more likely Rune was killed as a potential Seer, and suggests that Sally might be a wolf trying to distract us from this conclusion. Lottie thinks Sally's theory is not far-fetched and that morm's response is suspicious, and goes on to speculate that morm and Rune might be fellow wolves together with Formy or myself. That's about it, right?

First off, I agree with morm in that Sally's conclusion is odd. I'm not saying Rune can't be a wolf, of course he can, but he didn't, at least to me, seem any more suspicious than twenty-something other people. This is especially true with regard to the reasons why Sally found him suspicious: that he supported the no-lynch scheme (which is true for about half the village) and that he voted Form without wanting him to die (which is logical since he wanted a tie with no lynch, had to vote early and Form had volunteered). In fact, Sally's post seems like an odd mix of "this is why I suspect Rune" and "this is why he was Night-killed".

At the same time, Lottie is right in that a Sallywolf wouldn't have much to gain in trying to cover up Rune's potential Seerishness like morm suggested since it is rather obvious that if Rune was the Seer he hadn't dreamed a wolf yet. That said, Lottie's equation of "morm's argument doesn't make sense" and "morm is highly suspicious" is also rather odd.

My main qualm with Sally's theory is that I don't find her case against Rune particularly convincing, and I think it's unlikely the wolves spotted the same things she did, drew the same conclusions, and were convinced enough to use their kill on it. Unless, of course, Sally is a wolf and just now fell for the classic wolf mistake of explaining what really happened at Night.

I am not splitting this into different posts, even though it's long
 

But it addresses the Night and stuff early toDay, so that it's neatly together.

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Rune is of course more interesting question, I have also rearead his posts, I'll get to it in a sec.

But first - by the way. Let us bear one thing in mind. The pack that killed Rune might have contained the phantom (and vice versa. By the way what is it that makes it fairly automatic to assume Rune wasn't a Wolf? I mean, nobody much would think of it by default, right, whereas with tp it at least crosses people's minds?).

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs. At least it's an extra reason, even though of course different Wolves might think differently etc etc.

Who knows. Regarding the Greenie thing, that actually interests me, since I am still fairly suspicious of her (also after seeing her post toDay, see below). If Greenie was a Wolf, and her pack thought Rune a Seer, I'd say it would be a good reason for killing: the Form vote from Rune might have been interpreted in any way, but the WWs could think that Rune is about to dream her, which would be a brilliant reason (stopping the Seer kind of unconspiciously before he can do the actual harm, also, because the theoretical suspicion would be fairly unclear, it would be a good kill as it wouldn't leave so good tracks pointing at Greenie). Lot of speculation to be sure, but working with all the possibilities and the little info we have.

Generally agreed. Makes sense.

You are, here. One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner. The danger is you get spotted by both the village and the other pack. Of course they would probably try to save the comrades, but probably in as unconspicuous way as possible. The village is still big and they have to last long.

Same for painting the Nog votes as innocent - there are always easy targets. But, to be sure, there is something to what you are saying, there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass, and I would even imagine a baddie somewhere among the earlier voters. I will want to take a look at the voters, actually, and try to think something about them.

Agreed with Morm here, sally's post did not really make much sense there. Not sure if I'd think of her being a WW immediately, but it is weird.

Although this is weirder, to be honest. I don't understand what would be "weirdly defensive" about morm's post. If you said "weirdly offensive" (towards sally), then perhaps. This looks defensive to me, to be honest - you being defensive of sally. Alarm flashes a bit.

Okay, here we get to the thing I mentioned above: this post again has horribly fishy tone. Especially the "by the way sally morm are weird, nudge nudge?" like these classic casual remarks Wolves do in order to nudge others to lynch people. In any case (to put it positively), it should be clear that at least one, and maybe neither of those isn't in a pack with Greenie if she is a Wolf.

Good points there, Agan also came back very humbly after yesterDay's end, which could also be that now she would like it to be swept under the rug now that she had managed to survive it. But with all that, I am not sure if a WolfAgan would act that way at all. Also what I said about bandwagoning, not sure if the WWs would be that obviously saving a mate. But yeah.

Actually it would be interesting to rather think of both wagons as some baddie-orchestrated nonsense, not necessarily to save anyone, but just to wreak havoc, too. But anyway, have to think about it more still.

Yep, the hunter thing - exactly what I thought as well. I really think it might be a plausible reason.

That's what I thought yesterDay; that he is possibly an ordo. But then exactly the question is: if the WWs thought it as well, and knew about him sacrificing himself happily and so on, would they kill him? But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better? But no, WWs could probably actually benefit from messier thread - in the beginning, that is; not later when everything you say will be brought against you and the more people there are, the more you say, by default, since you have to interact with more people (but also hide better in the crowd and do not have to interact with everyone, which is a great advantage). Hm, whatever, I think that depends a lot on what kind of Wolves we are talking about. Once we'd learn the identity of some WWs, we could speculate whether a pack containing this or that person would kill the phantom... but at that point, not sure if it will be relevant anymore (except if by that time we are still struggling with knowing the roles of all the people concerned).

I actually also started thinking Nog was pressing the phantom kill a bit too much. But hard to say. Well he's dead now, we should probably shift focus again mainly on the living, until we have a more solid info about what is happening.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy and all

Okay, for the last time, let's recapitulate since people seem to be confused by this and think it was "out of proportion" (really? it was Day1? of course all suspicion is "out of proportion"!):

1. Agan uses the village "killing" all Europeans as an example of something.
2. Morm makes fun of her for suggesting we lynch the Europeans (herself thus included).
3. Agan replies to morm by making a joke that she used the word "kill" (instead of "lynch") because she's a wolf and it was a Freudian slip.
4. I find it fishy that Agan interpreted morm's comment as a half-joking questioning of her supposedly wolfy wording (which didn't look wolfy to me in the first place) instead of reading it the same way I did ie that he's making fun of her for wanting the Europeans dead.
5. Tired Agan gets angry because she thinks I think she's stupid and thinks I'm suspicious and grasping at straws, votes for me.
6. I find her overt defensiveness far more condemning than her initial wolvish-ish way of reading morm's comment and vote for her. And yes to be fair I also got angry because I thought the way she was trying to undermine my initial point was offensive and implying I was stupid.

So, as a summary: I wasn't suspicious of Agan because she made a Freudian slip, but because she acted as if she had made one when no one else thought so, and later because she became so defensive over it. I still think that's one of the most substantial grounds for suspicion/voting someone yesterDay.

Furthermore, the only two "weird" things about our mutual suspicion/ argument yesterDay (to me) are:
1) Agan getting over the top defensive
2) us both getting angry at each other for which was silly

Apology accepted!

Okay, the two stages was 1) adding a hurried note about a cross-post because it seriously baffled me and I had not time to look at it more then and 2) rereading it later to check if it really was something. Also I freely admit part of the reason for writing "omg what's Agan saying was that a slip" when not having time to think it through was to fish for a reaction - which I did, interestingly enough, get from Greenie who defended you.

With the risk of beating a dead horse, I still think you wouldn't have made that joke as an innocent because it simply wouldn't have occurred to you, and even if I'm wrong about that, had you been innocent, I'm sure you could have explained yourself more calmly instead of going for a full-blown counter-attack.

I hope this clarifies where I'm coming from to everyone.

~*~

It's possible it's all in the wording. I think I may want to check his posts for myself to get an idea - even though, if there's something that looks like he might have seer dreamed someone as innocent, for example, and we assume the wolves latched on it, it's still not exactly super helpful because the person the phantom would've talked about could still be part of the other wolf pack.

Now that I'm thinking about the Night kills, I also think killing the phantom might have had no reason except "this will keep 'em talking".

By the way I notice I keep assuming the Night killed people were innocent, and we can't really know that. But looking for wolf matey connections between them and the living is as random as haphazardly choosing to analyze the connections of a living person. Agh. I'm starting to think there's two ways to proceed in this game: analyzing everything twice as carefully as usual to try to make up for the missing information OR going only by your gut and whatever small things you notice in other people's behaviour. The first option sounds more productive but also way more time consuming...

What about not getting herself or a packmate lynched. I seriously think the wolves would be more concerned about that than the average ordo would be about lynching a gifted. Like, ordos may be rationally concerned about lynching a gifted, but the wolves would be emotionally concerned about themselves or their packmates dying, and I think everybody has some emotional motivation behind their actions while not everybody has rational motivation behind their actions as well. Okay, wow, that sounded pretty mean, but I hope you see what I mean. :D Also to clarify, I definitely don't think it's irrational for an ordo to prefer a lynch to a tie (quite the contrary anyway but that's not related), I'm only saying an ordo supporting a tie to protect the gifted probably has a rational reasoning behind it while a wolf supporting a tie might just have an emotional reasoning for playing it safe, and since I find emotional reasoning more common in this game than ice cold logic, I definitely don't think it's unsuspicious to want a tie.

...which should leave a nice trail? Good point. And that means they either have to give the seer dangerously much leeway or keep leaving trails. This is actually the first positive thing anyone has pointed out about the rules of this game! (Sorry dear Mod, I'm enjoying this game nevertheless, don't worry.)

I KNEW THAT. (For the record, she's done this before, once worrying Nogrod to death as she had said she'll be back to vote in a minute, and then she didn't come back at all and wasn't answering her phone either. Well, turns out she had forgotten to vote, switched her phone off and gone to sleep.)

Next up (who knows when though): a better look at the tally and possibly a look at the phantom's (and Rune's?) posts.

PS. For anyone who wants to have a laugh on the expense of dead people (very crass I know ;)):
Also really curious to see what's going to happen seeing as Nogrod was very strongly against the living dictating anything to the dead, and the phantom was very strongly for it.


edit: xed with everyone - where did you guys come from? - and added a space (yes you can lynch me for editing my posts now :p)

Great, now I'm imagining one of the wolf packs consisting of people who get headache from scheming loudmouths and killing tp just because he irked them. :D

Also I see Greenie basically explained the me-Agan exchange yesterDay in almost exactly the same way as I did above. This warms my heart (someone understands me!) but combined with her original defense of Agan's slip/joke/you-know-what-I'm-talking-about also leaves me with no idea of what to think of her.

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick? :smokin:

Believe me, that was the first thing that crossed my mind toDay;). And really, I don't even *have* a theory about tp's death yet. The idea of reading through his approximately 3 x 10^9 posts is... daunting...

By the way, though, what did you mean by saying he was probably an ordo "in hindsight"?

I didn't defend Agan as much as not see a slip there. Remember, by that point you hadn't made your case yet, you just said you smelled Freud. I didn't see the connection between her misinterpretation (?) of morm's comment and her possible wolfishness, and thus I thought you were referring to the "me and my wolf pack hee hee" and I didn't think that qualified as Freudian. After you presented your theory I could sort of see where you came from, and whether the theory was right or not I thought Agan's reaction to it was suspicious. Does this help?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

Just posting the sort of analysis of yesterDay's votes I thought I might make...

(I copied the list from morm's post, so I really hope it's correct!)

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

First thing to note, if we were talking about Aganwagon and Nogwagon appearing, there was, in fact, also already a sort of Formwagon. With that said that Form's self-vote seemed really dangerous to him, so I don't expect him to be a Wolf. Aganwagon was pushed forward most of all by the votes of Nog and Mith, and in both cases I am kind of dubious as to whether they would be doing it out of Wolfish intent. (There was the whole debate about who to vote going on at that time. Nog could be the one out of the two I'd rather suspect of Wolfy intention, given that he was earlier also testing the water with voting the phantom and all, but then again, even as innocent he would simply have ran out of options.) McCaber is more or less what would be the nail in the coffin if the vote had been successful, along with Mac.

There is the - for now, I'd say absolutely unlikely - possibility that Mac and Form are packmates and Macwolf was saving Formwolf and toDay again in the post earlier on where he was also saying he isn't likely to be Wolf (on logical grounds). But it would have to be really, really bold play from Form to vote himself at that moment if he were a Wolf, of course unless he were sure that e.g. Mac and maybe somebody else are going to save him etc. But this possibility I am mentioning rather just in case there are some revelations in the future which would suddenly e.g. show that Form might be a Wolf.

Back to the main topic: To be sure, the final push for the Nogwagon looks fishy by itself: all the people basically jumped up (or rather, down, since I have the red zone as the last) my list, because I would be really surprised if at least one Wolf didn't hide there. Statistically, I'd guess at least two, maybe even from different packs, especially if Nog is innocent (in that case, I'd easily imagine e.g. 2 and 1 Wolves voting there, or somesuch).

Effectively, based purely on votes, I'd be most curious about McCaber, Macalaure, and then the bunch of Nog-voters. Given that we don't know almost anything (like what role Nog actually is and all), can't really operate well on this. But just a way to sort out people in my head again in some different manner.

Probably will have to go now for the time being, but will post more later, obviously...

Well, it's possible, though the narration says they were both "mauled", which sounds more like a wolf-kill.

Oh lawks. I hope I stay alive a bit longer: it will be like Huis Clos in the DeadFred with the two uber egos there .... even if the handsome young party goer is also resident...

Need to read .... still can't quite get over so much happening just as I succumbed to sleep .....

Or what if both packs targeted Rune who happened to be the hunter and was targeting the phantom for laying the groundwork for impersonating the hunter later on? :eek: ;)

Just that now he's dead he seems like an ordo to me, while when he was alive, I was more unsure. Does this make sense? I'm not sure that's legit though, as like I said, I'm so used to only innocent being Night killed that this game seems to mess with my head even more than I thought. I found Sally's case against Dead Son of Bjarne really absurd too until I remembered we have absolutely no idea of his role whatsoever thanks to the nature of this particular game.

Fair enough. I guess "I smell Freud" wasn't the best phrasing from my part either, but it just sounded funny in my head.

I only have about five minutes to post right now, so sorry I can't be more helpful with quotes and references.

I was looking at the way the Nogrod bandwagon developed and it's really quite odd. Both phantom and B88 mention suspicions of him back on page 4, which is where Nogrod started gaining suspicion, but still most people were somewhere in between "maybe suspicious but not gonna vote for him" and "seems ok" with their read on him. The people who voted for him are mostly really conspicuously absent from that discussion (they weren't posting at all though so it could be a timezone/timing thing). That makes Lottie, Eomer, Shasta, and Satan all potentially suspicious to me - at least worthy of a closer look.

Also, finally realized now that Lottie is loslote. :rolleyes: And given that, she also mentions a suspicion of Nogrod on page 5 before the voting really gets going.