I will have a look at that. It may take a while, though, and I think it'd be a good idea for anybody else who has the time to also look through for clues on their own, since we might pick up on different things.

Well, I've been looking through Day 2, and though I haven't found anything yet about any of the possible cursed-wolf people, I did find this (highlight mine):

Since Agan was a doomed wolf at that point, I daresay that is a hint.
Now to go over the subsequent posts and find the answer...?

Well, I looked through them, and boy did I find something. Something very troubling.

Kitanna, are you around? Any chance you are Nimrodel after all?

Who voted for Jex? No, sorry. Not sure where you got the impression I was. I'm just a boring, misguided ordo who is playing a terrible game and is probably doomed at this point.

And I actually have very little to say at this point except I don't believe anyone anymore. This game destroyed my faith in humanity.

Though I did come up with a few theories on lunch:
1) Rikae is Nimrodel-Hunter, but will lose her powers if she reveals. This being how the Tarragyn or whatever worked in Agan's game some games back. Rikae thinks she has a wolf and she'll take them down if she dies. It makes her self-sacrifice make sense.
2) Rikae is a suicidal wolf with village sympathies. Very unlikely, but since this is WW nothing can be counted out.
3) Rikae is an ordo, meaning Cop and Fareal were cursed.
4) Lottie is the wolf. Agan threw her name out at the end of Day 2 for those who hadn't voted. Agan didn't vote for her, but helped doom McCaber instead. A ruse perhaps to distance herself from fellow wolf, Lottie?
5) Lottie really is Nimrodel and she's effectively an ordo as she said.

Right now I'm leaning toward 1 & 4 being the most likely. I've already fallen for one fake reveal this game, I'm not about to believe anymore.

An Elven-maid there was of old,
A shining star by day:
Her mantle white was hemmed with gold,
Her paws of silver-grey.

Lottie replying to Aganzir: Once BEFORE???!!

Kitanna, I was hoping you were only because otherwise I have to consider the possibility that Nimrodel is the cursed.

Maybe she absorbed the powers of the one she killed. *shrug*

I wasn't expecting to find that, but now that I think about it, it makes sense.

We weren't told there would be other special roles, though it is possible "secret stuff", it seems more likely there are no other roles than the ones listed:
In the narration from the very odd night in question, the narration Nerwen emphasized was accurate, we have:
So... Agan is going to attack the person she thinks is Galadriel, running up the stair:
And is shot by Loslote (can we assume this now?) who is standing above her on the stair:
And finally
"Us" could refer to the wolf and Nimrodel.

The more I think about this, the more sense it makes to me.

And there is also this:
Amroth's murderers wouldn't be the wolves, it would be Aganzir, Sally and Kitanna.

And look who Lottie wants to lynch toDay.

Huh, interesting. So do you suppose Nimrodel is cursed AND out for revenge? Or just out for revenge? If she is Nimrodel and is telling the truth about her role she's effectively an ordo so it's just personal now.

I don't know, I'm still not sold that Lottie is actually Nimrodel.

I'm not sure. Could be either, I guess. Maybe she can only kill the people who voted for Tar? She could still have killed Sally last Night. Perhaps killing them all is her condition for winning? In which case, I wonder if the village can win along with her, or if we need to lynch her to win.

Well, I definitely am not. I don't know how to prove it, but your guess about having to keep my role secret isn't what happened - I'm just an ordo.
That's actually (though it seems a bit wrong to mention it) why I wasn't here on Day 1. If I had gotten a PM, I would have been notified by email and known the game had started.

I was thinking maybe the game drags on until she or I is dead, but that wouldn't make sense. I mean if that is the case it's not a very high stakes ending. Either you vote to lynch me today and Nimrodel is satisfied and the game ends. We vote to lynch her and the game ends. Or we vote to kill you and Nimrodel offs me in the Night and the game ends. Sounds wrong, but we've been in the dark a lot of this game as it is. More so than usual. If Nimrodel is cursed that would make way more sense. Cursed and out for revenge.

But Nerwen wouldn't have known how it would pan out when she set up the rules. It could have ended up with Nimrodel killing multiple wolves, or multiple villagers - she could have been charged with killing half the village, or she could have been dead before the wolves were.

However, there is still that 2-3 wolves thing.

And of course, my whole suspicion of Lottie is based on the idea that she actually hinted to the wolves that she was cursed, and they attacked her because of it.

Why would she do that? I can think of a couple possibilities:
a) maybe she is both cursed and out for revenge, and wanted to be a wolf so she could have night kills?
b) maybe she was simply a hunter (and out for revenge) and could only kill Agan if she was attacked?
c)????
d)profit

Anyone else want to weigh in on this?

I mean, I would like to weigh in, yeah. I did not hint to the wolves, and I definitely am not the Cursed. I want the people who killed my Lover dead, yes, but it's not a game mechanic or anything - I can still win if they aren't all dead. I didn't kill Agan because she got Tar lynched, I killed her because I thought she was a wolf. I'm suspicious of Kit, not because she also voted Tar, but because it makes sense to me that she would be the last wolf.

Also, if I were the Cursed and was hinting to the wolves, why would I have killed Agan that same Night? If I was trying to become a wolf, it makes no sense to kill part of the pack the Night I supposedly joined it.

Honestly, I leave for a few hours and everything falls apart. :rolleyes:

I am worried about this too. There's a few possibilities in my mind.

1. if Lottie is an innocent hunter with no ulterior motives. There was a wolf (whether from the beginning of the game, or a cursed who turned). If we lynch Lottie toDay, the wolf will nab an Ordo toNight and toMorrow will be 2 ordos vs 1 wolf. Not horrible odds but not great either.
2. Lottie doesn't care about the village, she just wants revenge. Her win condition included killing all wolves AND the people who killed Tar-Jex. There are no more wolves around (after all, the narration for last night did not include any "wolfish" elements. If we let Lottie live tonight, she might be able to "revenge kill" Kit and win. Or just convince all of us to do her job for her toDay.
3. To make things worse, what if Lottie still has her "hunter kill" ability if she gets lynched or attacked by a wolf. In this scenario there's one last wolf around. Meaning that killing her MIGHT end up with someone else dead, who could be an ordo... effectively handing the game to the remaining wolf

Now Coppermirror has replied after Lottie's reveal, and didn't say anything about being Nimrodel, which has me thinking there will be no more reveals toDay.

I'm at a loss. Now that I've had time to read the whole discussion for today (and having Lottie's reveal), I somewhat see Rikae's point, though I still have a bad feeling about her insistence in trying to unmask Nimrodel.

I just feel we don't know enough about the parameters of the game to really figure out where we stand, which makes interpreting peoples' comments a bit more difficult (e.g. is this a misguided Ordo or a wolf or a vengeful Nerwen? What are the win conditions for the non-Ordos?)

I'm tempted to trust Lottie on the basis of Occam's razor, but that leaves the question of whether the remaining wolf was there from the beginning (and thus Kit or Rikae) or if it may have been a cursed who turned (which would add everyone else to the mix, really).

(Note that's not an edit, my girlfriend got home as I was writing this and got distracted. I likely cross posted with a bunch of people. The last post I read was Rikae's ??? Profit one

The only reason I can see is that you had to kill the Tar voters. The narration does suggest as much, you have to admit.
Well, if it's any help, I do find Kit's response to the suggestion pretty wolfy.
I'm not voting until I absolutely have to. I want to make as informed a decision as I possibly can.

Going through Day 2's posts for cursed hints turned up that comment of yours and really nothing else, except one place where Farael mentions "good people" in scare quotes. That could look like an evil hint, but I can't see him hinting and then suggesting people look for hints toDay!

Well, lemmie make a list:

Farael actually looks fairly trustworthy to me. Most of what he's said toDay would have worked against his interests if he were a wolf.

Coppermirror has been very under the radar, but asked a lot of questions about whether the cursed would have showed up as a wolf or innocent to Sally yesterDay. It wouldn't have been a good thing for a cursed-Copper to draw our attention to. Also, I don't see any particular reason the wolves would have gone after Copper on the no-kill night.

Kitanna just gives off a wolfish vibe to me and has from the beginning. The fact that now she seems mostly interested in the possibility of her own survival and not in a village win doesn't help. After all, if she's an ordo, she can die and still win. On the other hand, if she was a wolf from the beginning, we have no explanation for the missed kill, and if she's cursed, we don't know why the wolves would have gone after her, either.

Loslote Is Nimrodel, that much I'm willing to believe. I'm not so sure she's on our side, or that she's telling the whole truth about her role, for reasons I just listed - possible cursed-hinting and the fact that her role as she revealed it doesn't quite fit with the narration.

If Loslote really is just a hunter, and Kitanna was a wolf from the beginning, we have no explanation for the no-kill night.

So either Loslote is up to something or we have a cursed. And if we have a cursed, there's no particular reason to vote for Kitanna (aside from "looking wolfy"), but rather, we should vote for the most likely cursed...

which, to my mind, brings us back to Lottie.

Nope, I'm definitely not Nimrodel. Sally also dreamed of you, so it should be impossible for you to be Nimrodel either.

I'm sorry for not having contributed more to the discussion so far. Problem is, there are so many potential variables.

Right now, I think it's most likely that if we have a wolf remaining, it's a cursed wolf, because what other explanation is there for the lack of a wolf kill on the Night that Aganzir died? And if we have a third wolf (however they got there), it makes sense that Nimrodel would be on the side of the village, because if not, that would be a vicious game balance. I'm going to discard the possibilty that the game is so unfair.

However, if Nimrodel were to be a third, cursed wolf, that wouldn't break the game. But it would mean she had three roles - lover, hunter, cursed. That's an awfully complicated thing to put in a game without explaining it to the village. Would Nerwen really do that?

And if there is no "wolf" any more but what we have is just Nimrodel's revenge on the Amroth voters, it's...a bit odd. I would have expected the game to end with the last wolf's death even if Nimrodel had a vendetta. And this would not explain why it is that there was no wolf kill on the Night that Agan died.

I haven't read through all of this page in detail, so I'll read through the posts toDay so far carefully and see if my opinion changes, but right now I'm inclined to trust Lottie and to look for a cursed wolf. Which means I'll go back to looking through the older posts for who I think the wolves might have targeted.

Edit: crossed with Rikae

The way I see it, it wouldn't need to be any of those roles fully (she's not a normal hunter, for instance, as far as we already know) but a new role with similarities to those.
She's more of an assassin than a hunter anyway, seems like.

The most likely scenario to me is that Loslote was the wolves' target (the narration suggests as much, and so does the fact that they could well have thought she was cursed).
Why she didn't die - well, either she was cursed, or maybe her one-time "assassination" ability also protects her. But wouldn't she know that?

What we do have is this: that Aganwolf brought up the possibility of a cursed, and that the following night, there was no wolf kill. I think not having a cursed is too much to hope for.

Edit: just realized as it was posting that I wanted to add: "Aganwolf brought up the possibility of a cursed that the wolves knew about"

I'm going to have to vote soon. Is anyone around?

I'll be voting within the hour

Ok, time to vote. Here's my rationale:

1. If Lottie is evil, then we are kinda screwed. There's no way to know what her victory condition may be.
2. Assuming Lottie is good, and knowing that I am good (I know, some of you may disagree) that leaves Copper, Kit and Rikae
3. I distrusted Rikae all day, but she kept on answering and trying to figure things out... without defending herself "excessively". I know that's subjective, but feelings are most of what I have to go on with
4. That leaves Copper and Kit. I haven't had much of a chance to get a feel for either. If there WAS a cursed, and If I read things correctly, then Sally-seer dreamed of Copper the night there was no kill. However, we can't be certain who the wolves went for! It might've been Kit or Rikae for all I know
5. I think for now I will trust Sally's dream and, by exclusion, that leaves me with Kit for today. Tomorrow, if I'm still around, I will have to decide whether Rikae or Copper are the most likely remaining wolf
6. May Eru help us all

++Kitanna

Lottie, if you're around, can you explain this post of yours?

Edit: X'd with Farael

Never mind, I assume this refers to it:

Day 1.

Kitanna:
- banters
- speculates wildly, and among those, there's one known hit: Tar-Jêx as one of the Lovers. Given that Tar-Jêx got killed and revealed as Amroth on Day 1, they might have thought that was Seerish, but if they did, it didn't stop them thinking Boro was a better kill option for Night 2.
- says "I'm magic after all." in response to Agan's "Blimey! I didn't think we'd get caught this quickly." about the Lovers guess, and then speculates about the Lovers' roles. The "I'm magic" stuff might have been too bold-sounding to be followed up.
- votes randomly for Tar-Jêx, who anyone would have expected to be safe from being voted off on Day 1, so if they thought Seer!Kitanna had dreamed of him as a Lover/Ranger, Seer!Kitanna would have expected her vote to be 100% ineffectual and safe. (Although it turns out it wasn't safe.)

Rikae:
n/a

Farael:
n/a

Loslote:
- banter, talks of dark portents
- says could buy Kitanna's speculation about Lover-cobblers.
- votes Boro, leaves

Day 2

Kitanna:
- Post #75 has multiple suggestions. Can't see anything of note there.
- Shows up to vote. Really, there is so little there.

Rikae:
- Points out that Tar may not have known details of Nimrodel's role.
- Suggests maybe Nimrodel's an illogical hunter.

Farael
- suggests that Nimrodel can both protect and be a hunter, but that it's unlikely.

Agan:
- lots of suggestions that there's a cobbler, focused on McCaber.
- among other things, suggested Boro was killed for cobbler-hinting
- suggests that a better reason would be that the wolves wanted something specific (a cursed) more than they wanted to nab the "revealed" Agan!Seer. This is something that could, on its own, just be a way of trying to plausibly explain why Agan was still alive if she was really the Seer.
- "I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that" - she may have been hoping that Nimrodel would say something, whether revealing herself and saying yes or subtly hinting a "no" to Agan.

Loslote:
The "cursed before" could have been her trying to contact wolves, but could have been entirely innocent too. This was also at a time when she was about to Night-kill Agan, so it could be odd to reach out to the wolves when she was trying hard to kill one.

All three of Kitanna, Rikae and Farael look like people that the wolves could reasonably have gone for on suspicion of Seerishness. The latter two missed an entire Day, and Kitanna left early and made a throwaway vote on Day 1 then didn't say much on Day 2.

I am concerned that perhaps Lottie could be untrustworthy and the village's remaining opponent, but frankly at this stage if she is it takes the game to levels of difficulty that I'm not sure I can manage to deal with right now.

I'm going to move on to look at the next two Days and see if anyone is looking as if they just got turned into a wolf there.

Certainly. I mentioned this briefly in an earlier post, but I can elaborate a bit. I had seen that everyone seemed to be assuming that there was a Ranger save, and, not having a better explanation, did not want to risk telling everyone that Nimrodel was not, in fact, a Ranger, since I had no way of knowing that other than the fact that I myself am Nimrodel. However, I didn't want any decisions to be made based on the assumption that Nimrodel could save anyone as the Ranger, so I did what I could to suggest that people do not rely on my supposed ability to save anyone.

I apologize that I haven't been around as much toDay as I had hoped - we had surprise visitors who stayed all day, and I wasn't able to get away to post.

Edit: xed since the post I quoted - yes, that's the earlier post I was referring to.

Oh well. It's late, and I'm exhausted.

Although I don't think Loslote is telling us everything she knows, and it does seem likely she was the wolves' target on the no-kill night, there is a chance that she isn't actually against the village (maybe just after Kitanna?)
There's also the chance we had three wolves from the beginning, in which case, I can be sure the last wolf is Kitanna.
And in the case of a cursed that isn't Lottie, Kitanna is a possibility (and there are reasons I mentioned that Farael and Copper are less likely).

In light of that:
++Kitanna

Let's hope we got it right. That "cursed before" business is really nagging at me...

Hopefully we're right about Kit - she makes the most sense in both scenarios, so I'm pretty confident, but still. Crossing my fingers.

++Kitanna

That's three votes for Kitanna, which means that's it for her now. I'm not done with my analysis of the situation yet, but I'll keep on with it even though it's pointless as far as toDay is concerned and my vote doesn't count, in case the decision toDay was wrong.

Kitanna, if the decision toDay is wrong, what do you think ought to be done toMorrow? Do you suspect anybody in particular?

++Kitanna
You're all wrong, but it's too late to stop it.

The Tally
Farael --> Kit (1)
Rikae --> Kit (2)
Lottie --> Kit (3)
Kit ----> Kit (4)

Left to vote: Coppermirror.

It is getting pretty late, so I suppose I might as well vote now. May as well make it 5/5 for better or worse.

++Kitanna

The Tally
Farael --> Kit (1)
Rikae --> Kit (2)
Lottie --> Kit (3)
Kit --> Kit (4)
Coppermirror --> Kit (5)

Cop, you mentioned wanting to do an analysis. Is that still the case?

Yes, but since the voting's all over with I wasn't in any hurry to finish it up quickly. But I haven't actually found anything useful yet, so if you were hoping to go ahead and have the deadline early I don't mind.

Well, I'm going up the street now, so I'll give the result when I
get back. (Probably about half an hour.) Feel free to post in the meantime.

There's no more point in considering Kitanna since if she's a wolf she's about to by lynched anyway, so I'll just look at Rikae, Farael and Lottie.

Day 3

Rikae
- Sceptical of Sally, and (not unreasonably) wanted voting to not go ahead without more details. Considered a lot of fake reveal scenarios.
- Sally finds her attitude about the revealed innocents perturbing, thinking that Rikae could be unhappy about narrowing odds. But if Rikae was a cursed, it actually wouldn't count.

Farael
- Also sceptical of Sally.
- Was quick to vote for Shasta after his "reveal", but if a wolf he would know that Shasta was doomed. So the vote placement, although the one which tipped it into 4 votes and sealed Shasta's fate, is not indicative of guilt or innocence.

Lottie
- Believed Sally and voted pretty quickly, but she had to vote very soon and was busy, so it was sensible. Didn't say much that Day.

Really, Rikae and Farael behaved in similar ways, albeit that Rikae was more aggressively sceptical and Farael was more low-key and voted faster (whereas the votes after his didn't count). I'm not sure what they would usually do as wolves. If I had to pick the more traditionally wolfish behaviour of the two I'd say Farael's, but there's a possibility a Rikae wolf would go for a bold strategy.

Day 4

Rikae and Farael's big argument mostly doesn't seem enlightening. Rikae does something odd in that she suggests that people vote for her, which is something I generally think an innocent should never do and which a wolf may use as a gambit. But then Farael agrees with that and says voting for her sounds like a good idea just because nobody should ever pull such a stunt. Which is also pretty bad...but may have been taking into account that it's not a wise thing for an innocent to do.

Rikae seems to be spending a lot of energy thinking things through, and also finds something which could legitimately be a slip from Lottie. It looks like a pretty genuine effort and thought process, but maybe Rikae is just a clever wolf. And if she's a wolf then she probably wouldn't know the true details of Nimrodel's role so would need to consider them. Farael also has some doubts. They look reasonable too.

And I'm probably about out of time now, so I'll leave it at this. No conclusions reached yet, unfortunately.

Had to check the game as soon as I woke up.

I just have to say this, because it's bugging me:

No, ordos should definitely not always put their own survival first! An ordo wins when the village wins, so although we generally should try to stay alive, we should prioritize the survival and effectiveness of gifteds over our own survival. Of course a wolf can bluff at doing the same thing, but that doesn't mean it's never legitimate.
Jeez, I thought that was werewolf 101.

Anyway, judging from Kitanna's reaction, we were wrong. I had a bad feeling about it when I cast my vote. :(

And also, I don't like it how Farael and Copper are both like "innocents should generally never do this" instead of actually looking at the situation as we knew it at the time. Lazy.

It can be a good idea - never is too firm a term - it's just not something that should be jumped to hastily, especially at the point in the game when every ordo counts. Though now I check again it's not as if you were saying "vote for me now!" but "vote for me if Nimrodel doesn't reveal toDay!" which is slightly different. I still don't feel comfortable with that in toDay's context, though.

I'm still hoping it might have been right. What about her reaction made you think the vote direction was wrong?

Edit: crossed with Rikae

Just that if she was a wolf she'd have no reason to deny it anymore when she was already lynched.

That took longer than expected, so I may as well wait for the normal DL.